McCain Uptick!

Still a long shot when you look at the battleground states. Realclearpolitics indicates too many states are toss up or leaning towards Obama. I think Obama could seal the deal or squash any further upticks by starting to float possible cabinet members. However, considering where McCain was last year when almost out of money, you never know.

I'm a big fan of http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Their methodology is very different -- statistical analysis of polling data, it's not a market like Intrade. But they've got Obama at 84.4% likelihood to win at 51.2% of popular vote.

Is there some bias from SAI? Why the exclamation point as if this is good news?

Isn't it funny that the Republicans were as happy back in 2000 and 2004 to say that the polls were accurate only when their side is supposedly winning, and when the opposition is winning polls don't count. BS through and through. My bet is they'll try to pull some stunt to deflect away the economic crisis by somehow linking Obama with the Taliban. Palin got through the debate, but not enough to save the GOP sinking ship. Next time, pick a VP candidate with triple digit IQ please.

The exclamation point was partially a response to the blizzard of comments complaining that we were biased the other way (because we've been obvserving that McCain has completely cratered in the past two weeks).

I've been following (playing) the free Intrade market from Rasmussen since January. I've found it very difficult to game. I tried to gin up some interest in Rob Portman for VP by buying buying buying back in June. No dice even in a thin market. It's tough to arb as well though it can be done. I made money on Pawlenty that way. But guess who was short Sarah before the convention?

These markets are pretty darn liquid. When you see a spike like Friday's for McCain your first reaction is to dismiss it. But look at the time and sales...it was concurrent with the NYT's internet article on Obama's (non)-relation with Ayers. But the headline seemed heaven sent for Republicans and they bought Mac hard. When everyone had had a chance to read it, bang! down Mac went.

But sometimes the market can give you advanced insight. The odds of a Sept. Bailout bill passing spiked an hour before the deal was announced by Pelosi and Reid last Saturday night. I'm guessing that Congressional aides were betting on the deal before the press conference. But then the odds tumbled on Sunday. WTF? Did someone know the House Republicans would kill the bill on Monday? Nah, they just looked at the calendar and figured the Senate couldn't act before the end of Sept. because of the JNY. Mr. Market makes mistakes but not about expiration dates.

The market isn't predicting that Obama will crush McCain with 320 electoral votes; that's what the crowd anticipates. FWIW the political market forecasters have a much better record this fall than the hedge fund guys.

Short McCain. His stock is on a one way path to zero.