Bedard Going Nowhere Fast

As an A's fan, I don't think the M's should deal Bedard if they don't get anything remotely close to what they paid for him. He's a good pitcher when healthy, so keep him. Done and Done.

Don't forget Chris Tillman. Man what a bad deal.

Sherrill is one of the worst closers in baseball and only gets credit for being valueable because any team that would take him would turn him into something less than what he is... a lefty on lefty reliever or setup guy that does not have to face the best righties in the league, they would slide him into the 7th or 8th inning depending on who is due up... In the 9th inning as a closer you don't have that luxury, you have to face whoever bats in the last inning... A 3.98 ERA is like a 5.50-6.00 ERA as a setup guy, Sherrill has had 5 or 6 runs not go against him this year where he gave up a game winning hit with multiple runners on and it would have been a bases clearing double or two-run single, but it only took one run to bury the Orioles in those instances... He's just not that good...

As for Jones, he's been playing out of his mind the last month and a half and all it's done is made his numbers average in comparison to the normal MLB centerfielder. He's not a HOF to be, not an All-Star, just a normal outfielder and personally I would take Ichiro, Balentien, or Ichiro over him any day at any age. So for what it's worth he was an extra piece with three brighter outfield prospects waiting in the wings, Greg Halman, Michael Saunders, and Michael Wilson... All of which should or will be better major leaguers, so you guys can have the light hitting, limited power, poor base stealing (both in total and in success rate), average fielding Jones, he may have been a 1st pick by the Mariners, but I think they sold high on him...

As for the other three, the only real gem is Tillman and he's a #2 or #3 pitcher at best when he makes it to the majors, I just don't see his game translating to #1 status in the majors.

Tony Butler is struggling a short season A-ball while almost 21 and having 3 years under his belt, he's not even progressing from the league he started at, he's been an A-ball player all three years with no signs of even dominating the league by now... His 4.00+ ERA does not bode well for a guy with three pitches to call on and only a 95 mph fastball at times, a decent breaking ball and a below average changeup.

Kam Mickolio had a 4.70 ERA at double-A and somehow they thought that translating to deserving a call-up to AAA, score another point for the Orioles on how to not promote players appropriately...

On the whole let's breakdown the trade this way... If the Mariners hold onto Bedard through 2009, he will be a type-A free agent as he only needs to post 20 starts with his ability to be in that class... They can clearly offer him arbitration as he'll either sign a long-term deal with Seattle or another team, no way he takes arbitration (which is the real point, not whether he'll stay). If he's a type A player than they'll get a 1st and a sandwich pick, which is higher draft order than where they grabbed Jones and Tillman, so in essence they got two years of Bedard, injured or not, for the cost of a Independent League player (Sherrill) that had no value before 4 years ago and that they signed for peanuts, an 18th round pick Mickolio, who'll never be a major leaguer for more than the time it takes to figure out that he's not that quality of pitcher (he's already talking about life after baseball at 24), and a 3rd round pick who may never figure it out... Two years of throwing one of the best lefties in the game out there 3-4 times a month is definitely more than worth that... Look at what the Brewers gave up for 2 months of Sabathia plus or minus a post-season birth... There's no way their supplemental picks they get from his signing in the offseason will get them a player of LaPorta's quality... Even if they draft well, they still gave up almost as much as the Mariners did to get Bedard and only for two months instead of two years! So think about that next time you crap all over this trade... The Mariners gave spare parts away and will get anything of value they gave in the draft or through trade...

Finally, who cares what they gave up to get him, you have to look at from today forward with trades, you can't buy yourself or in this case trade yourself peace of mind on a bad transaction, you just look at what can you do for the team today... Today the team needs a #2 starter a lot more than the third player they'd get for the next season and a 1/3 of Bedard. Oh and let's not forget the fact that Bedard said in a Mariners All-Access interview that was played in the NW that he loves the city, if the team can surprise some people and bounce back next year, they would still have a chance to hold onto him after the season is over if Toronto doesn't make a run at him, which they won't... He may want to play in Toronto, but Seattle may be the lesser of all the evils aside from that choice...

Correction: Tony Butler was pitching at AA for the Mariners last season and posted a not-so-shining 4.75 ERA, pretty much pitched the same as he has at A-ball, this also means he's been good enough to get demoted... Last I checked you want to add an "A" not subtract one for the level of ball you're playing at, not a good sign at all since he's regressed to a 4.42 ERA against inferior competition as compared to what he faced last year...

Upon further review, the difference between the Sabathia/Bedard trade... LaPorta = Jones & Butler, Jackson = Sherrill, Bryson = Mickolio, so in essence the Mariners traded Tillman for 1.67 years of Bedard, as that's the difference in time that they have him vs. what the Brewers have Sabathia for in terms of time period, and extra talent rendered... Sounds like the Brewers made the worst trade EVER!!

I would've sent Bedard, Washburn, and Lowe to Milwaukee for Matt LaPorta, Mat Gamel, Tim Dillard, Michael Brantley, and Bobby Bramhall. I think that's more than fair considering they would've got TWO starters through next season, 4 1st round/sandwich picks, and a potential closer that's under team control for four more seasons...

I think anyone who watches the Mariners and is a fan of Seattles' team would feel this is fair trade value, yet, the Brewers would've got a lot more than just two months of Sabathia and going into next year they wouldn't be losing both their #1 and #2 starters, both will be equally hard to replace and the Brewers have nothing going forward even if they do as they won't ever be in a position to afford two top starters and it would take atleast that to compete with the Cubs, Reds, and Cardinals... Astros need more pitching before they can even be brought up in this conversation... With Harang, Arroyo (back to normal), Volquez, Cueto, and a #5 to-be-named, their rotation is pretty great going into next season!

uhhh, you forgot to mention that Bedard is so enamored with Seattle and Seattle media calling him "a wimp" (which is why that particular Ms interview is his first and probably only such interview given this season) that he OK'd Ms management to trade him before his contract ends...

BaseballGuru- is it really worth defending Seattle management? What kind of baseball guru defends a franchise that has a payroll over 100 million but has the worst record in the MLB to show for it. The point is, this team sucks and will presumably be terrible for the next few years. Having Tillman and Adam Jones would have helped them sooner. Instead you have 2 draft picks *and that is assuming Bedard is healthy next year* that might turn out to be decent. Your assessment was biased, to say the least.

I actually see where "guru" is coming from here. Obviously he's biased but we all are to our own teams. I disagree with his opinion of Adam Jones and Chris Tillman however. I think Jones could become a perenial all-star, and Tillman could become an ace. But the other players I agree were just spare part throw ins.

am I the only one, aside from Guru, that thought adam jones was a little overrated to begin with? I watched him play and never really saw anything worth crying over, sure he was a top prospect, but I really believe his worth was at least overvalued.

I don't know anything about Tillman, and it sounds like he's good, but you never call anyone an ace until they get up there and prove it. Remember Ryan Anderson, the "Little Unit" ace? Yeah, well he was an ace in the farm leagues and supposed to be the new Randy Johnson. He never came around to the majors, did he?

themfightnwords,

you do realize that Tillman is 19 years old, do you know how many pitchers have been brought to the majors before the age of 21 and contributed a league average or better ERA in the last 25 years?! You can start the list with Doc Gooden, Roger Clemens, Felix Hernandez, and that's about where it ends... So Tillman at best wouldn't help a team until 2010 at the soonest and realistically not until 2011 or 2012... Sure he may get called to the big leagues before that, but "helping" them is a totally different thing than "pitching" at the major league level!! It's like saying that Kershaw is "helping" the team, if you think he's the only guy who could pitch a mid 4's ERA in Dodger Stadium, then you are sorely over-estimating the worth of Kershaw at this point of his career. Kershaw looks like a #2 and he's hands and feet abover Tillman in talent, for one the lowest WHIP that I've seen Tillman have when I've periodically checked in with him is a 1.34, which for you that don't know, is very high for a top tier starter in the minors... Typically when you have the type of pitches that Tillman has, you should get a lot of chasing strikeouts that keep your pitch count down, since his strikeouts are already high and his WHIPS are high, this tells you one of two things, either his fastball lacks movement or his command is so horrible that guys aren't struggling at the plate when it comes to deciding whether to swing or not...

Finally, in regards to your comment, I'm not defending management, I'm defending Bedard getting crapped on as a lackluster player that was over-paid for... When his game is on, he's better than Sabathia AND Santana... Last year he had a lower ERA and more strikeouts than both of those pitchers. He also had 2 less wins than Santana in 5 less starts for a team that finished 10 games under the Twins for team record... He had 6 less wins in 6 less starts while playing for a team than again finished 27 games below the Indians in overall record... Clearly a more dominant pitcher than both of those starters and it's fair to say that he pitches two more starts last year if they are in the hunt for a playoff spot, but they didn't want him injuring himself for nothing in the last two weeks of the season... Also, with a real offense, he probably catches three more wins and one less loss, that would've had him finishing with 16 wins and maybe 4 losses in 28 starts...

Bedard is probably the most underrated starter in baseball... Not that he's not valued, but more that he's considered just good and not elite... Santana's stats have regressed every year for the last three seasons and technically his 3.10 ERA this year is worse than his 3.33 ERA for the Twins last season when you factor in the difference in pitching in the NL vs. the AL. Bedard on the other hand has got better each of the last 4 seasons, Sabathia is by far the most inconsistent of the three... While Bedard is not healthy much of the time...

Most people consider Jason Schmidt a top notch pitcher up until his LA deal, Brad Penny until this season was considered an ace, how about Chris Carpenter, Freddy Garcia, Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, Derek Lowe, Jake Peavy, John Smoltz, Fausto Carmona, Francisco Liriano, Noah Lowry, Jose Contreras, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, John Patterson, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, etc. These guys have all been injured, but nobody craps on their lack of consistency. Stats are below on the "magical" 200 IP, which is the big gripe about Bedard.

Lackey won't get to 200 IP this season and so he's reach 200 IP in 4 out of 6 seasons since becoming an everyday major leaguer!

Kelvim Escobar in 6 seasons as a starter has only gone 200 IP in 1 of those seasons.

Curt Schilling, 9 out of 15 season he's managed 200 IP. Also, I didn't include '94 because it was strike-shortened.

Pedro Martinez, 7 out of 14 seasons not including '94, where he failed to reach 200 IP.

John Patterson never has, even though he was proclaimed the ace of the Nationals only two short seasons ago.

Mike Mussina has 200 IP in 10 out of 15 and probably 10 out of 16 with the way he's pitching thus far.

Andy Pettitte has made it to 200 IP in 9 out of 13 seasons and probably will be 9 out of 14 when this season ends.

Peavy, 3 out of 5 with this season making 3 out 6.

Lowry, 1 out of 3 with this season making 1 out of 4.

Liriano, never more than 121 IP.

Contreras, 1 out of 4, will be 1 out of 5 after this season.

Fausto Carmona will be 1 out of 2 after this season.

John Smoltz, 10 out of 13 and will be 10 out of 14 after this season... Include the years he went to the bullpen to save his arm and it's more like 10 out of 17 as one of those seasons I won't count against him, but the main reason he went to the closers role was partly they needed one, but mostly he couldn't pitch that deep into games for a while.

Derek Lowe, 4 out of 6 so far, but he'll probably be 4 out of 7 after this season.

Chris Carpenter, 3 out of 10, will be 3 out of 11 after this season.

Jason Schmidt, 5 out of 11, will be 5 out of 12 after this season.

Brad Penny, 2 out of 7, will be 2 out of 8 after this season.

Ben Sheets, 3 out of 7, will be 3 out of 8 after 2008 probably.

Rich Harden, 0 for 4, but will be 0 for 5 after this season.

Freddy Garcia, 7 out of 9 and will be 7 out of 10 after this season...

I think this is more than a small sample size of "aces" that can't go 200 IP consistently! I think if the guy gives you 25-28 starts on average every year, then you should be happy...

As for Bedard being a "whimp"... He's just like EVERY major league starter not on a short list that includes Beckett, Halladay, Zambrano, etc. Outside of those few, all MLB starters are whimps. Heck the old expectation for IP was 250, how many have NEVER pitched that many innings in TWO seasons combined, let alone one calendar year?!

Good call on the Little Unit, 116ismyfavoritenumber, he was way over-hyped. How about we look at outfield prospects that were over-hyped like Jones, how about Victor Diaz who was supposed to be the next Andruw Jones/Carlos Beltran... Well, now he's been released from a AAA contract and plays for the Tacoma Rainers of the PCL, a Mariners AAA affiliate. Jones hits like crap in the clutch, or lack there of when speaking about his ability to not drive in runners...

Jones hits .241 with RISP, .314 with the bases empty, hmmm... Not real promising... With just a runner on 3rd, he hits .240 with 2 outs (true clutch situation), .375 with less than 2 outs (not as clutch since the next guy can bail you out, minus sac flies, the AVG drops to .300 even, or 14 points less than his AVG with the bases empty, hmmm, super clutch! Bases loaded, another good way of evaluating talent, he has a .273 AVG, which considering is a grooved pitch at bat, should be close to .400, but what's extra alarming is his .231 OBP, with those same bases loaded. As for AVG with runners on 1st base, that would be a .226 AVG, how about with men on base in general, how about .235 AVG. He's not very good, he's just not, he looks lost, has a limited work ethic, and he's not very smart... Listening to him talk and you'll know this is a kid that was given A's for being on the sports teams, not very well composed or very intelligent at all...

Just think about this, the Mariners if given the same draft picks this most recent draft, that they would get for Bedard, they would've grabbed Shooter Hunt, the player they wanted 2nd most to Joshua Fields. How about Dennis Raben... Just looking at what Seattle did with their 1st and 2nd round pick and I have a hard time believing that Jones and Tillman will be equal to Fields and Raben, when all things are said and done, so imagine what they could do with twice the picks! Remember, either way you slice it, they picked Jones and Tillman, so they will atleast make equal use of those future Bedard signing-elsewhere-picks, no way they do worse, since they've had four of the best drafts in the last four years! Just look at this year's draft picks and what they are already doing, there is a 12th rounder who is on his way to long A-ball after starting at rookie league three to four weeks ago, named Kenn Kasparek. I think they intentionally got rid of Jones and packaged Tillman as an acceptable loss for getting to re-draft a player to replace Jones. They figured they can get a better 1st pick than Jones and an equivalent pick for Tillman, making it an improvement... Plus don't forget the possible degenerative hip issue that Jones may have still... He's atleast susceptible. Sherrill they got max value for, Mickolio and Butler may have mental issues or work ethic problems that the Mariners knew about, which may have made them more willing to ship them out!

Bedard never asked for a trade, only said that he was open to it, if it meant playing for a contender, but he likes everything about Seattle and the Mariners except that it's not near Navan, Ontario. If he can't get Toronto, then he'll still not have the luxury of going home on off days, even if he's in Philly, Boston, Pittsburg, Cleveland, or Detroit, so then it's about what city does he like the most and that would probably be Seattle, since he's seen all the other cities and said Seattle is one of the nicest he's been in. Plus, let's remember, it's 6 months out of the year, 1.5 months of Spring Training regardless of where he plays, and hopefully 1 month of post-season play, either way, he's only going home for a week worth of days per year even in Toronto, so I don't think he's all that geared up to leave Seattle, a town where he doesn't deal with too much journo crap!

OH YEAH, one more thing... The Mariners record is indicitive of Batista losing faith in thre of his pitches, extended DL time for Putz, Beltre playing hurt for most of the season, Ichiro uncharacteristically slumping, consistent other injuries to players, Bedard's injuries even falling under the fluke category... Every player has one season where they played well below their career norms, the problem is that Sexson, Johjima, Vidro, Cairo, Bloomquist, Wilkerson, Clement, Balentien, Burke, Ichiro, all were hitting on average about 25-35 points below their career numbers after 81 games... That's a freak occurance and has nothing to do with management, and yes I am glad Bavasi is gone, hope Armstrong and Lincoln follow them, and most importantly, I hope that Pelekoudas doesn't jack this team up so he can make his "mark" on the club... Beltre, Bedard, Felix, Morrow, Reed, Clement, and maybe Ibanez and Lopez should be considered untouchable, the rest should go...

Trades like Carlos Triunfel, Ryan Feierabend, Nathan Adcock, J.J. Putz, and Kenji Johjima to Cleveland for Sizemore and Shoppach. Victor Martinez is already being converted to 1B and with Hafner having to DH because of his elbow, it allows Garko to become a bench player/spot starter/pinch hitter would be great for the club!

How about Ichiro, Ibanez, and Arthur Rhodes to Los Angeles for Matt Kemp, Carlos Santana (catcher), Victor Garate (starter), Robert Blevins (reliever), and Andy LaRoche.

Then you trade Washburn to the Phillies for Brett Myers, and a mid-level prospect or two.

Adam Moore, Sean Green, and Yuni Betancourt to Cincinnati for Brandon Phillips, allows them to add a needed rubber arm to their pen, allows Keppinger to play his more natural 2B, while giving them their infield of the future with Encarnacion, Betancourt, Keppinger, and Votto. They also get their catcher of the future in Adam Moore.

Final trade: Bryan LaHair, Oswaldo Navarro, and Sean White for Aubrey Huff.

What do you get?!

Grady Sizemore CF
Brandon Phillips SS
Adrian Beltre 3B
Aubrey Huff 1B
Jose Lopez 2B
Matt Kemp RF
Jeff Clement C
Jose Vidro DH
Jeremy Reed LF

Shoppach C
Cairo INF
Hulett INF
Bloomquist UTL

Felix
Bedard
Myers
Silva
Rowland-Smith

Morrow (RH)
Lowe (RH)
Jimenez (LH)
Corcoran (RH)
O'Flaherty (LH)
Dickey (RH)
Batista (RH)/Fields (RH) trading Batista at first chance and then move Fields into setup and eventually the closer role!

Plus figure whatever FA they sign in the offseason.

Or Balentien instead of Vidro DH-ing while he works on his defense before games and on off days!

Regardless of yesterday's play, I think I just puked a little in my mouth when I saw you had Jose Vidro in your lineup of the future for the Ms. But I definitely agreed with you all the way until your untouchables list.

Clement's a keeper, Reed's trade fodder, an Ibanez trade (which I am now in favor of, despite liking the guy a lot) would fetch something worthwhile, RA Dickey is the next Tim Wakefield and therefore meant to be a starter in the future, Batista needs to be traded ASAP--today if possible, I'm not sure why we keep O'Flaherty and RRS other than handing a terrible season's pitching to someone willing to take a loss or twenty, Johjima should go away/not be extended with numbers like that as a fluke or not, JJ Putz is starting to shine again, etc...

Why would LAA ever trade for Ichiro? You're using Ichiro's name in that trade scenario simply to balance it out, which doesn't mean the Angels would bump out Coco Crispies Torii Hunter or Vladi G anytime soon.

On another note, I'm going to the Rox/Ms game tonight (RF reserved yeahhhhhh). Anyone got any questions I can ask Washburn for his interview??? lol J/K