« Phillies Acquire Joe Blanton |
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By Tim Dierkes [July 18, 2008 at 8:59am CST]
I'm on record as liking the Phillies' acquisition of Joe Blanton. Let's round up other reactions to the trade today.
- Bill Conlin isn't a fan of Blanton.
- The Transaction Guy sees nearly a 1.5 win gain for the Phillies this year, and isn't too impressed by Oakland's return.
- Keith Law thinks the Phillies' gain could approach two wins this year, even while considering the smaller park and inferior defense for Blanton. He considers the prospect package reasonable.
- Joel Sherman considers Blanton the pitcher Adam Eaton was meant to be.
- Tom Goyne says Blanton is the B-level acquisition we expected the Phillies to make. He doesn't think the Phillies will miss the prospects they gave up.
- Dave Cameron believes Phillies fans will ultimately be frustrated with Blanton, as his low home run per flyball rates are not sustainable.
- Rob Neyer says Justin Duchscherer is at peak value, and Billy Beane hasn't given up on '08 unless he moves Duke.
- Or could Huston Street be the next to go?
- Ken Davidoff is surprised Pat Gillick and Billy Beane matched up for a trade, and gives the edge to the Phillies. This does appear to be the first Gillick-Beane matchup, but I wonder how much of the work A's assistant GM David Forst did.
- SI.com's Jon Heyman thinks the A's waiting too long to trade Blanton, noting their spring demand for Johnny Cueto and then some.
- With all the deals this month, it's nice to not read the tired annual story about how the trade deadline is mostly talk and little action.
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Keith Law should stick to talking about minor leaguers as he clearly does not watch any MLB games:
"That trick works when you're playing in front of one of the best defenses in the majors in Oakland, but less so in front of Philly's defense, where all three outfielders are below average for their positions"
If he had watch a Phillies games in the past 2 years, he would clearly see that both Victorino and Werth are above average defense outfielders, but with solid arms. I will give him that Burrell has no range...but he does have an above average arm as well.
Posted by: 7thinningstretch | July 18, 2008 at 09:43 AM
I'm surprised by the number of experts giving the Phillies the edge in this trade. As with any trade, you can't really grade it until down the road, and Blanton could indeed help the Phils; they sure need pitching depth. But they gave up some very good prospects for a pitcher who may have trouble pitching outside of a pitcher's park. I feel like Beane duped another GM (I like his haul here better than in the Harden trade), but again time will tell.
Posted by: Craig Phillips | July 18, 2008 at 11:03 AM
a's got one solid prospect in cardenas...hes nothing amazing and outman is ok...his stuff is ok and he gets shaky in the show...hes never dominated and will never be good really...thats y the experts are givin the edge to the phils...phils didnt really give up anything...
Posted by: greatone91569 | July 18, 2008 at 11:30 AM
But did they really get anything?
Posted by: Meoveryouok | July 18, 2008 at 11:45 AM
the phillies got an upgrade...blantons a ground ball pitcher...should be ok in citizens bank park and hes a second half pitcher that will have the lead alot anywayz.Hell work deep into games and give that bullpen a rest..soo yea id say they did
Posted by: greatone91569 | July 18, 2008 at 11:55 AM
blanton = i'd say he'd improve in nl, but he's a bad fit for that park. maybe in the philly summer heat he'll lose some weight
A's got a top 30 type prospect in cardenas, whether he was 2b depth or not
i do think beane should've traded blanton in offseason
gio replaces 08 version of blanton...upgrade!!
plus simmons/mazzaro/cahill/anderson/outman etc on the way...blanton will not be missed
Posted by: arly2380 | July 18, 2008 at 12:07 PM
"
Keith Law should stick to talking about minor leaguers as he clearly does not watch any MLB games:
"That trick works when you're playing in front of one of the best defenses in the majors in Oakland, but less so in front of Philly's defense, where all three outfielders are below average for their positions"
If he had watch a Phillies games in the past 2 years, he would clearly see that both Victorino and Werth are above average defense outfielders, but with solid arms. I will give him that Burrell has no range...but he does have an above average arm as well."
I wouldn't put my money on this. Keith Law is one of the better scouts that offers a good deal of stuff on the internet, and I value a lot of what he says. Victorino isn't great in center, and Burrell, Jenkins and Werth really aren't anything special. This guy spends his whole life watching guys play baseball, I assume he's got a pretty good idea of whats good and bad for a defensive outfielder.
Posted by: scribbletone | July 18, 2008 at 12:09 PM
It's an underwhelming acquistion just because he's not hte power arm the Phils' rotation desperately needs. I think the universal immediate reaction, from Phillies fans (myself included) was disappointment, just because this doesn't appear to be a high impact move for THIS season...Blanton doesn't project to be that strong #2 to match with other NL playoff contenders.
However, when you consider that he is arb eligible the next two offseasons, if you can get 2.5 league average years out of Joe- not unrealistic based on track record- it has to be considered a good deal
All in all, underwhelming but still a rational move.
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 18, 2008 at 12:10 PM
Also I find it hysterical when Bill Conlin comments on a player's weight (Myers, Lieber, now Blanton)
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 18, 2008 at 12:10 PM
"A's got a top 30 type prospect in cardenas, whether he was 2b depth or not"
Noo noo noo Adrian Cardenas is not a top 30 type prospect. More of a top 75 type prospect. He projects as more of a 20 homer, 300 BA second baseman, which is a nice ceiling to have, but odds are he's worse than that.
"Adrian Cardenas is the best of the three prospects going back to Oakland; in a perfect world, he becomes a solid-to-average offensive second baseman with an average glove. He has a short enough swing to make plenty of contact, but he's not physical and won't hit for much power. He's not fast out of the box, but shows above-average speed going first-to-third. He's also a perfect 16-for-16 in steals this year." - Keith Law
The guy will probably end up being an above average second baseman, but this guy is very far from the next Chase Utley. He's still in hi A.
Posted by: scribbletone | July 18, 2008 at 12:11 PM
Here's the thing about the defense comment...
I was surprised too as my perception were that Vic and Werth were both above average defenders. Both are well above-average athletes for their respective spots and throw well.
However, the RZR and RF numbers bear out Keith's claim. I think CBP has a lot to do with Vic's somewhat poor numbers though. Less groud to cover, narrower gaps equals fewer chances and less opportunity to explore his true range.
Look at Rowand's 2007 numbers playing CF in CBP. Decidedly below average. Now look at where he stands playing in spacious Pac Bell. I think this really helped his metrics, assuming he didn't become significantly quicker or better in the offseason.
Also I look at Victorino's numbers in RF in 2007. They are a lot better, especially in the plays made Outside of Zone category. It's clear he hasn't lost a step as well from watching him play last year. I think the position in the park is having a definite effect on the numbers.
Just another reason why CBP is bad for pitchers...it makes talented defenders less effective
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 18, 2008 at 12:15 PM
scribble, Cardenas cracked top 20 in BA's revised midseason list I believe. They must like his power projectability more than Law
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 18, 2008 at 12:21 PM