Buc 'Em

Buccaneers with Twitter accounts

2009-06-30T16:49:47Z

Hey guys. I don't know if you guys are big fans of Twitter or not. I just recently started trying it out but I did manage to find a few Buccaneers on there. The only two current players I was able to find were Earnest Graham and EJ Biggers. Warren Sapp and Warrick Dunn both also have accounts though. There are quite a few players from around the NFL on there. I was able to find Peyton Manning, T.O., Champ Bailey, Shawn Merriman, Jason Witten, and last but certainly not least Chad "Ocho Cinco" Johnson. Be careful if you start following him though because the dude literally "tweets" every couple of minutes. Within minutes of following him he took up my whole screen with asinine, rambling tweets. You would think the dude would want to be training for the upcoming season. haha. Well I put this up here to let you guys know that you can follow some of the players if you want to. Also: if anyone knows other players that have Twitter accounts please feel free to tell us in the comments section.

Strength of Schedule - 2008 & 2009

2009-06-30T14:02:56Z

One of the overlooked factors in any team's season is how the relative strength of their opponents can affect their records. It stands to reason that if you are a mid-level team and play the bottom of the barrel teams, this should inflate your record, given that you are playing lesser teams. Same holds true if you play only elite teams, your record would probably indicate you are worse than you truly are, given the level of competition.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rolled into last season with a strength of schedule (SOS) that fell somewhere in the middle of the league. One major caveat to strength of schedule as it is viewed before the season starts; it's completely based on the prior year's results. This doesn't account for surprise teams or any deviation from the previous year. For example, in 2008, most of Miami's opponents, based on strength of schedule, saw an easier run during the year. Miami had been a doormat in 2007, going 1-15. So every team that faced them had a strength of schedule brought down by Miami's 2007 season. Obviously, Miami did much better in 2008, giving their opponents a much more difficult challenge than their SOS would indicate.

To clear up any discrepancies, SOS is calculated by taking all opponents wins and dividing by total games, thus giving you the win percentage of the respective team's opponents. The Bucs SOS going into 2008 was .469. The teams they were facing were collectively under .500 in 2007 which was good for the 19th hardest schedule.

The schedule ended up being a bit more difficult by looking at 2008 results. By calculating the win % based on a completed 2008 season the Buc's schedule had a win % or SOS of .480, slightly higher than projected. What does this mean? Truthfully, it shows the schedule was a bit more difficult than anticipated, but nothing egregious. The Bucs were helped by playing the second worst division in football (the AFC West, second only to the NFC West). I'll cover a more in-depth look at the schedule later, but want to come back to SOS and the 2009 season.

The Bucs have the 4th hardest schedule going into the year with a .580 SOS. The NFC South actually has the toughest go of it this year, with each team in the NFC South falling in the top 8 with respect to SO (Carolina is 2nd with .592, Atlanta is 4th with .588 and New Orleans is 8th with .557).

How will the Bucs fare? this obviously depends on too many factors to list. For what its worth, Pittsburgh apparently had the toughest schedule last year (.598 pre-season, .519 after 2008 season) and still went to and won the Super Bowl, proving that SOS is not a predictive tool, more of a media tool to create conversation.

The SOS should be taken with a grain of salt. It is based on the thought that each team will perform exactly similar to the year prior, which is very unlikely to happen. It also doesn't figure home/road games and how teams perform historically in those venues. We all know that the Bucs haven't fared well in cold weather, but there is no increase/decrease in our SOS to compensate for any late season cold weather games. SOS is merely a representation of how a season would play out in a controlled environment, which doesn't exist in the football universe.

In the end, SOS can give you a glimpse into a season, but hardly tells the whole story. The true story can come from looking back after the season and seeing how your team fared based on that respective season. We know going into 2009 that the road appears tough (.580), but we won't know how difficult (or easy) our schedule is until the season is completed.

Can Bryant continue the revival?

2009-06-29T17:42:27Z

The 2008 season produced similar results in the passing game when compared to past years. Our #1 Wide Receiver was the focus of our QB, eliciting more than double the targets of closest Bucs receiver. There were some sensational grabs, down the field plays, and a highlight play for the world to see. The difference? The name on the back of the jersey read Bryant, not Galloway.

Antonio Bryant, a Pitt product, a mercurial receiver who has bounced around the league due to perceived attitude problems and drug/drinking issues took a giant leap back onto the NFL landscape in 2008 with a productive season for the offensively challenged Buccaneers. He totaled 83 receptions for 1,248 yards and 7 touchdowns. This ranked him 11th in receptions, 8th in yards and T12 in touchdowns. A banner year for anyone, but particularly for a guy we scraped from the trash heap. Bryant’s 2008 season is remarkably similar to 2005 Galloway and 2003 McCardell. This season also put Bryant’s name high on the Buc’s leader board, with the T5 total in receptions, 4th best in yards behind names like Carrier and Me-shawn in the Buc's annals.

Even more impressive was his ability to catch the ball. This seems like a simple task for a player who makes his living doing this, but as my previous article showed, AB performed better than most in this category.

Player	Targets	Rec	Drops	% Catchable Dropped	% Catchable	% for 1st Down
Antonio Bryant	137	83	5	5.7%	64.2%	43.8%
Ike Hilliard	58	47	2	4.1%	84.5%	53.4%
Roddy White	148	88	8	8.3%	64.9%	41.2%
Braylon Edwards	138	55	16	22.5%	51.4%	30.4%
Greg Jennings	140	80	7	8.0%	62.1%	39.3%
Brandon Stokley	85	49	4	7.5%	62.4%	41.2%

The question now becomes not what did we have, but what do we have. What can Bryant do in year 2 donning a Buccaneers uniform? Can he repeat his career year? Can he continue to find some of the magic that was on display as the only bright spot in Carolina? A look back at his previous years shows some startling numbers.

Year	Rec	Yards	TD
2002	44	733	6
2003	39	550	2
2004	58	812	4
2005	69	1009	4
2006	40	733	3
2008	83	1248	7

2008 obviously stands out as his career year. The other 5 seasons (2007 was a N/A as Bryant was on the sideline due to legal issues) are pedestrian as far as what you would want to see from a #1 receiver. No individual season stands out. In fact, some might point to his motivation to A) get paid and B) re-establish himself as a player in the NFL as to why he performed so well in 2008. This is probably part of the equation, though only AB himself knows this. The talent has been there, but it takes desire, work ethic, and a team to make a player great. As a former 2nd round pick and Biletnikoff winner as a sophomore, the talent was there. Perhaps he expected immediate NFL success or after securing a sizable contract, the desire and work ethic faded.

His re-emergence may have come from a different avenue, having a coach who gave him a chance and catered to him. Without being privy to locker room conversations, and on the field discussions, this is all just hypothesized, but Bryant was dismissed from two teams, the 2004 Dallas Cowboys and the 2006 San Fran 49ers due to clashes with head coaches (Parcells and Nolan). Gruden is/was more laid back than either of these guys in terms of being a disciplinarian and "father figure". Any human being will tell you that more times than not, when someone gives you a chance after no one else does, you tend to try a bit harder. Can you measure that? Not in a way that I know of, but Bryant's desire to get back in the game, Gruden's ability to look the other way on past character issues, and a scheme that targets one primary receiver all led to a big year. Can this be re-produced in 2009?

I expect to see a decline in Bryant's numbers for two reasons. 1) We will become a run heavy offense. More running plays = less opportunities to catch passes (though it should open up the field). 2) The addition of a playmaking tight end/wide receiver. More playmakers typically means the ball is spread around. Bryant and Winslow should help each other out in terms of drawing coverage and freeing up zones. A decline in Bryant's numbers won't necessarily mean he has regressed; it could be a product of several things, including the two listed above.

There are still some question marks surrounding Bryant. Has he put past issued behind him? Can he co-exist with a coach and a young QB? Will he be able to handle another high profile name on the offense? Can our young QB's (assuming they start) get him the ball? Having made his way back into the NFL circle, will he still have the chip on his shoulder?

As Bryant saunters into the 2009 season, perhaps we as fans will get the best of him again. He is, after all, on another one year deal (though it's a bit higher from his 08 pay, $605,000 to $9,884,000). If he can continue on his "team first" path, accept his role in the offense, and look to capitalize on his opportunities, Bryant should lead the Bucs offensive attack again and produce another great year from the former Pittsburgh Panther.

* As a side note, Bryant has played with current Buc’s QB’s for 4 regular season games. All came with the Browns and Luke McCown. In those 4 games, McCown and Bryant hooked up for 16 catches, 197 yards and 2 TD’s

Bucs inform Jeff Garcia no team wanted him

2009-06-28T06:03:29Z

Buccaneers Inform Jeff Garcia That No Team Ever Wanted Him

TAMPA BAY, FL—Shortly after ending a two-year relationship with Jeff Garcia, the Buccaneers front office notified its former quarterback that no NFL organization had in fact ever wanted or needed the 38-year-old. "It was hard to see that look on his face, but he needed to learn that no team—not even the Bears—could imagine a future with him," said owner Malcolm Glazer. "We were only stuck with Jeff for this long because nobody better was available." Glazer, who said the decision to make a clean break came after consideration of Garcia's arm strength, height, freckles, and male pattern baldness, admitted the Buccaneers only pursued the quarterback to see if it made other free agents interested in the team.

Naturally Garcia signed with the Raiders....officially ending his career.

For those of you who didn't get it, this was a little satire on my part. I don't know how else to spend this off season and make it go by faster.

Raheem, let Plax walk the plank....please : )

2009-06-28T05:39:29Z

Yahoo Sports yesterday, published a report that the Buccaneers were one of five teams to contact Plaxico Burress this week. The Yahoo report describes the phone call as exploratory and was mainly to “check on Burress’ well being.” The checking in on his well being part is quite laughable, but we’ll for this excercise take the phone call as a serious inquiry into signing Burress. This is according to Burress' agent Drew Rosenhaus. According Rosenhaus, via his Twitter account, Burress now has five NFL teams interested in him. And that list, according to Rosenhaus, could become even longer soon, Profootballtalk.com reported.

First and foremost, the legal issues that Plaxico faces from gun charges in NY are the most important factor in any team signing him, the Bucs or anyone else for that matter. I have read lately that his lawyers are trying to reach a plea deal with the district attorney’s office. Let us also assume for this that Plaxico ends up with a probation and community service type of plea bargain and serves no actual jail time. I mean he may be an idiot, but he didn't kill anybody (or animals).

Regardless of his eventual deal with the state/district attorney’s office, Plax is almost certain to face some punishment from Commisioner Roger Goodell. Burress is most likely looking at somewhere in between 4 and 8 games. Let’s say he ends up with an 8 game suspension, stays on good behavior and gets his suspension cut to 6 games.

The availability of a player who had such an impact on a team winning the Super Bowl two years ago is something that every team would be looking at if Burress wasn’t such a head case. He is though, and that is something that every team, including the Bucs would need to take into consideration if they were to sign him. His production on the field though, can not be disputed. In 3 full seasons with the NY Giants, him and Eli Manning connected for 29 touchdowns. Everyone just assumed that Eli Manning had become a great quarterback during this time, but with Burress out last year, Manning looked average, and in my opinion, that’s is just what he is. Burress ability to stretch the defense vertically on go routes, run routes to perfection, catch just about anything thrown his way and mostly his ability to be a huge redzone target was key to the so called “progression” of young Elisha Nelson Manning.

If the Bucs plan were to let Luke McCown or Byron Leftwich captain the ship this year while rookie Josh Freeman learns the ropes, than signing Burress to me seems to be a no brainer. The tandem of Antonio Bryant and Burress coupled with the arm strength of both McCown and Leftwich would make our offense downright scary. Add in the deep running back corps, Kellen Winslow and our young impressive line, and the Bucs would have the chance to be a top tier offensive team. I think everyone is overexaggerating the loss of the older players on our defense, because if I remember correctly, most of the pundits felt this was our downfall defensively last season. We have old guys and we are too old, we get rid of them, and now most people think we have no defense. Our secondary is one of the young bright secondaries in the league. Barrett Ruud, Quincy Black/Angelo Crowell and Jermaine Phillips/Geno Hayes is a more than competent group of linebackers and if the defensive line can get some more pressure on the QB we have the chance to be as good as we have at any point during the last decade. People forget that until we lost to the Panthers in Week 14, the Bucs were the number 2 ranked defense in the league.

On the other hand, if the plan is for Freeman to play, I think this would be a terrible signing by us. I loved how Antonio Bryant behaved last year, but the combination of Bryant, Winslow and Burress is a frightening thought for me in regards to a rookie QB and his psyche. Three guys who demand the ball and aren’t afraid to act out when they don’t get their way isn’t really the way you want to “raise” a quarterback in this league.

It’s an interesting pickle for our team in all honesty, and one if it were to happen, will probably tell you the direction in which the front office and the new coaching staff feel this team is headed for the upcoming season. I, for one, hope we sign Plax. I'd have no problem seeing 17 setting of cannons. So please Raheem, let Plax walk the plank...

Poll

Should the Bucs go after Plax?

Position by position breakdown. What to expect for the 2009 season.

2009-06-25T21:54:04Z

I thought I would do a position breakdown of the team for this season. This is all off the top of my head, because frankly I don't feel like looking anything up. Feel free to correct me if I get something wrong. I am also going to include a grade for each position, and comment about how I feel they will perform this season.

Let's start with our new and "improved" offense...

QB:

Grade: C-

Let's go ahead and address the elephant in the room. Our QB situation is far from ideal heading into the 2009 season. The controversial drafting of a project QB out of Kansas State has left a bad taste in a lot of fan's mouths. We are left to ponder whether our familiar back-up Luke McCown, the newly acquired Byron Leftwich, or our highly paid young gun Josh Freeman will be starting Game 1 vs. Dallas. The situation also begs the question of what is to become of our previous project QB Josh Johnson. It is never a good thing when you have a question mark at QB heading into the season, but hopefully a quality starter will emerge to lead us into a unexpected playoff run.

RB:

Grade: B-

This position seems to have improved in the offseason with the free agent acquisition of Giant's running back Derrick Ward. We will most likely see a running back by committee approach with the resilient Earnest Graham, and electrifying return man Clifton Smith. Our Caddy is, yet again, back in the garage this season after perhaps being rushed back onto the field too soon last season. Despite the fact that our "franchise" back is out I am very optimistic about our running game this year. The only reason I gave the position a B- is because of lingering issues at the fullback position.

WR:

Grade: C+

You would think with the dozen receivers we have on the roster that this would be a little better position for us. Our #1 receiver spot will be held by Antonio "I'm not happy with 9 million for one year" Bryant. Bryant displayed brilliant hands and a uncanny ability to get open down the sideline last season. Let's just hope it carries over to this year. I think the incentive of earning a long term contract will lend itself to the "Real Antonio Bryant" showing up again this year. Our #2 spot is going to be given to Michael Clayton (I'm assuming this because of the ~~idiotic~~ exorbitant contract that was given to him during the off-season). It is officially time for Mr. Clayton to put up or shut up. He has nothing else to blame his failures upon now that Mr. Gruden has left the building. Our third receiver spot should be up for grabs and there are plenty of guys that I feel have the talent to contribute. I would like to see Stovall, Campbell, or Stroughter step up and make some big plays this season. I hope Dexter Jackson does the right thing and gives the team back all of their money he has been paid thus far in the understanding that we was drafted under the pretense that he was a football player.

TE:

Grade: A

We improved on a already very talented group of tight ends by adding the highly skilled, but much maligned Kellen Winslow Jr. in the off-season. He will join the 6'7 Jerramy Stevens (everyone's favorite player from a personality standpoint) along with Gilmore to create a very solid unit that can be effective in any situation. These guys should be a great help to whomever wins out at the QB battle during camp.

O-Line

Grade: A-

I'm not going to do a position breakdown on the O-Line because I don't feel like it. The only weaknesses I can really see are Penn's conviction that he is better than he really is, and Trueblood's penchant for drawing stupid penalties. Joseph, Zuttah, and Faine played pretty well last year, and I expect more of the same this year.

And now for our Defense.......

D-Line

Grade: D

Our D-Line is in need of some serious help this season. I'm really looking forward to seeing how our rookies pan out and if they can make an impact on a very weak defensive front. Miller looks to be a great run stopper, and hopefully Moore can complement Gaines at the DE position. I don't think it will be long until he starts pushing Stylez (seriously dude wtf were you thinking, I like Teen Wolf too but you have just taken it way too far) for playing time. Gaines needs to have a great year or he will officially be considered a bust in my opinion. He has just never managed to put everything together to become that great player that he was projected to be. If anyone can get something out of a DE it's Bates though, so I remain hopeful on this point. I'm also hoping Miller can beat Sims out of his job by the start of the season so that our front four will be a little more respected than it would be otherwise.

WLB

Grade: ?

Jermaine Phillips has moved from the safety position to play the weak side LB spot. I never really understood this move, as I still think Phillips is a much better safety than Piscitelli, but then again I'm not a coach, just a genius. If the Phillips experiment doesn't work out then hopefully one of our young guns (Hayward, Black, Hayes) will be able to capably fill this spot. I honestly think that there is so much quality at the OLB spots that we should be just fine. I still don't understand why we released Cato June because he was supposedly too small and then decided to move a safety to LB to fill his position. At least we will be in for some thundering hits this season as Phillips always lays it on the line.

SLB

Grade: B+

I'm assuming that Angelo Crowell is going to win the starting spot in camp because he is the most accomplished of the candidates for this job. Crowell did miss all of last season though and it is still unclear on whether or not he can regain his former form. When Brooks and June were released we were told that the young LB's on the roster were ready to start and deserved to be on the field. That's why I was a little perplexed when they brought in Crowell.

MLB

Grade: B+

Hopefully by the time the season starts the morons in the front office will have given Ruud the contract he deserves. The guy has literally done everything they have asked of him since we drafted him in the 2nd round a few years back. He sat back and diligently learned the position from Shelton Quarles, and then took over the job in a very efficient manner. He is considered one of the most solid MLB's in the NFL and yet we won't pay the guy. I just don't understand how we can give huge contracts to Kellen Winslow and Michael Clayton, but we can't pay the backbone of our defense. Ruud seemed to wear down a little last season and I don't even know who his back up is so lets hope he doesn't get hurt.

CB:

Grade: C

I'm looking forward to seeing Aqib Talib on the field full time this season. I thought he showed some great instincts and ability last year by snagging four picks despite seeing limited playing time. I'm not looking forward to seeing Ronde getting embarrassed by guys ten years younger than him. I was really hoping we would land a free agent corner and we could just have Ronde play the nickel. Obviously this didn't happen so I'm thinking that it's going to be a long, long season for Mr. Barber. Our alternatives are that Biggers kid we drafted late (WTF? Why didn't we draft a CB higher than the 6th round?) or Elbert Mack, who is small like Ronde, but can really bring the pain, as evidenced by the hit last season that earned him a fine by the NFL. Other than that, there isn't much hope. I think that Torrie Cox is still lurking around but he is, when all is said and done, Torrie Cox.

FS:

Grade: A-

I think that this position is very solid with Tanard Jackson coming back after a great season last year. He is also backed up by the very capable Will Allen. Jackson seems to have great instincts and I'm hoping that he will continue to be productive for years to come. I'm going to miss the Bash Brothers combo of Jackson and Phillips though.

SS:

Grade: D

As I've said previously I'm not a big fan of Sabby. I don't think they should have given him the SS spot or moved Phillips. No sense crying over spilled milk though. I'm excited by the splash play ability that Piscitelli brings to the game, but he is ALWAYS out of position. Maybe it will be better in Bates Defense but I don't know. I'm really weary on this one, and I'm not sure who his backup is either.

Grade: B

Nugent or Bryant. Seriously who cares? Both are adequate, and whichever one wins the job in camp is the better kicker. Period.

Punter

Grade A+

Bidwell is the man! Haha is it bad that the punter gets the highest grade in my whole evaluation.

Well, there is my evaluation of this year's team going into the season. I'm sure that we're in store for some surprises along the way. Feel free to correct me or to disagree with any of my grades. I welcome the debate.

A Message of Hope

2009-06-22T22:02:59Z

I’m just a fan. Not a fanatic, but a fan.

Raised in a family of football lovers, I have grown up with the game as many of us have. I have seen the rise of legends, and their downfalls. Names come and go. Offensive and defensive schemes change. Even the rules change, but the song remains the same. It’s Football, straight and true. It’s eleven versus eleven. When I became a Buccaneers fan, I was just an eight year old who thought pirates looked cool. The image of Bucco Bruce, with the cutlass in his teeth, it was just plain cool to look at. I watched the games, yet they meant nothing to me. I didn’t understand what a blitz was, or if intentional grounding was just something parents did to punish their children. But as the years wore on, I learned more and more of the game. And with each passing season, I rushed ahead with greater anticipation.

I fondly recall the days when Tony Dungy was the figurehead of what many NFL enthusiasts still call “one of the greatest defenses of all-time.” Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, Rhonde Barber, John Lynch, Mike Alstott, Warrick Dunn, and yes, Trent Dilfer. Any Bucs fan ought to recognize these names. These were the names I grew up with. I have countless drawings depicting these players. I had even aspired to become a Buccaneer myself. Of course, such was the delusion of a child.

In those days, the Buccaneers weren’t the biggest team on the block, but they weren’t a pushover either. Sure, they closest they may have ever gotten was the NFC Championship game, but the drive was there. Finally, they hit it big in 2002. They smashed the Oakland Raiders in San Diego, marking the first Super Bowl victory for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers franchise. Ironically, I remember speaking to a friend of mine in high school. He was a Raiders fan and I was a Bucs fan. I had remarked that it would be “cool” if the Raiders and Bucs faced off in the upcoming Super Bowl. Alas, I digress. Still, many fans still cry foul in regards to the nature of the victory. Was Jon Gruden really the coach who brought our team all the way, or did he just pick up the pieces? The evidence, albeit very convincing, can still be left for questioning. Nevertheless, few will dispute that the road since Super Bowl XXXVII was a bumpy one.

In the years following, there have been a few gains, and many losses. With the addition of General Manager Bruce Allen, Warren Sapp and John Lynch were dismissed; a decision that still unnerves Bucs fans to this day. Carnell “Cadillac” Williams was acquired, and for a time, it was good. But as of today, Cadillac still has a difficult road ahead of him. Michael Clayton was a wonderful breakout performance, but had faded in the eyes of many Bucs fans. Inconsistencies at the quarterback position had left the offensive side of the ball in near shambles, leaving the defense to try and carry the weight.

Jeff Garcia provided us with a nice change of pace, but even that was not enough. So what was it, then? Was it Jon Gruden’s playbook? Was it Bruce Allen? Both? Whatever the case may have been, it was more than apparent that something was missing in the Buccaneers’ core. And then the Great Change occurred: Monte left, Gruden and Allen were fired, and a myriad of Bucs cornerstones were dropped. Fans’ voices cried aloud at the absurdity of it all. Such became a defining moment in Buccaneers history. In the past few months, many changes have come to pass at One Buc Place. Some have been puzzling, even difficult for fans to even begin to encompass. But that’s how it is. Change is rarely easy to stomach.

When you’ve been a fan for such a long time, seeing such a shift could be devastating. Understandably, if something works, don’t fix it. That’s a mentality that’s been shared with an innumerable count of people. But who are we to decide? We cannot force the pen that signs the contract. We cannot decide who’s drafted and who’s waived. And surely, we cannot choose who wins and who loses. We, as fans, are but spectators to this magnificent sport. We can cheer loudly and proudly, or we can boo with profanities and sneers. But other than that, the best we can do, as fans, is lend our support. Yes, we cannot decide, but at least our voices can be heard.

For the “Nay-Sayers” of Bucs fan base, have hope. In the end, it’s the only thing us fans have. If you’ve been with the team for this long, why cast your doubts here? You must’ve been around when the Bucs suffered dismal seasons in the past. People have even doubted, then. I know I have. I was on the brink of changing to the Seattle Seahawks because I was so perturbed by the team’s performance. But like a fan, I hung in there. I still do. So with the draft acquisition, the off-season moves, and the new coordinators, don’t despair. It’s okay to be a little wary of the choices that have been made, but have hope. That’s the true test of a fan. Will you stay when the going gets rough, or will you leave it to the winds?

Like I said, I’m just a fan. Not a fanatic, but a fan.

P.S. – As a side note, I truly believe that the Bucs can be great this coming season. If you’ve noticed, they’ve been relatively moving under the radar since the early off-season action. We have no indication of how the team will turn out this season, but I have a feeling that it’ll be a good one. I have a good feeling about Josh Freeman. Then again, I’ve been wrong before. But I’ll still hold out for this one. We may not have the standout names, but it’s not so much about the names as it is about the core. One man doesn’t make the team, although some might think so.

I’m a long-time reader, first time caller. I just wanted to say something, that’s all. I’m not as statistics heavy as some of our more esteemed writers are. So if any of you wanted to bash me with lowbrow remarks, at least do it with a correct grammar structure. Thanks for your time.

- Zeke

Closing the Book on Gruden

2009-06-20T00:30:48Z

I can remember over the past few seasons, so many of my friends saying that Bucs needed to fire Jon Gruden. Like a cow mooing, over and over again, “Fire Gruden!” “Fire Gruden!” Well, they finally got their wish and Gruden is gone.

I remember thinking that if Gruden ever was fired, he would be the first coach off the market as another team would snatch him up immediately, so I was never on the “fire Gruden” bandwagon.

It didn’t happen that way for some reason and Gruden took a job in the booth for Monday Night Football.

I remember after Gruden survived the first wave of firings after the Super Bowl this season, I thought he was safe, but one Friday night, the Bucs pulled the trigger and Gruden was gone. My initial reaction was that letting him go was a mistake because it was apparent that the only coaches that were available were retreads like Marty Schottenheimer or a complete unknown.

But as the night progressed, I started creating a mental list of Gruden Gaffes – things that really just pissed me right off as a fan. That night I drove from Land O’ Lakes to Channelside (Downtown Tampa) to meet my friends. By the time I was in the parking garage, I was convinced it was the right decision.

Now Gruden gets boatloads of credit for winning Super Bowl XXXVII, and don’t tell me he did it with Tony Dungy’s team. The only reason Dungy DIDN’T win was because he was fiercely loyal to Clyde Christianson and refused to fire him in favor of a real offensive coordinator (side note: guess who is offensive coordinator for the Colts this season? Yep! Smilin’ Clyde. I don’t think there has been a figurehead position like his this side of the Queen Elizabeth). So in my house, Gruden got a pass, for a bit anyhow. But one afternoon, in an effort to avoid doing actual work, I started writing down what was Gruden’s undoing.

I filled two pages.

Here’s the Top 5 in detail:

1. The Wide Receiver Debacle (2008): Joey Galloway is hurt in the first week of the 2008 season with what is called a “sprain” but is later revealed to be a “break” in his ankle. In steps former cast-off Antonio Bryant who was not even in the NFL last season. Bryant grabs the opportunity with both hands and racks of 83 catches for 1,248 yards and 7 touchdowns. Galloway is never a factor again despite numerous public claims that he is 100% healthy. Bryant was essentially the ONLY receiver on the team because no other Bucs receiver had more than 500 yards receiving. We were told that Galloway wasn’t on the field because he played the same position as Bryant. Now, we’ve all heard for the past seven years is that Gruden is an “offensive guru” blah, blah. It would seem to me that someone who was a true innovator would figure out a way to get his two most productive receivers on the field at the same time. The Dolphins figured out how to get two running backs on the field at the same time (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) by using the Wildcat Formation. In over 50 years of football, someone at sometime must have figured out how to get two receivers who played the same position on the field at some point.

2. The Quarterback Collection (2007): In our house, we have three bathrooms. Sometimes we run out of toilet paper because we use one bathroom more than another and we cannibalize the supply in the other rooms, and not realizing that we’re completely out until it is too late. When I go to the store, I tend to overbuy. Well, that’s what Gruden did in 2007 after quarterback Chris Simms got off to a dismal start and eventually left his spleen on the field in Carolina (how the offensive line was not charged with attempted murder, I still cannot figure out). Left with journeyman Tim Rattay and rookie Bruce Gradkowski, the Bucs went in the tank. Well, in a fit of “overbuying,” Gruden stocked up on quarterbacks (as I type this, the “toilet paper” analogy is quite fitting) loading the roster with the likes of Jeff Garcia, Luke McCown, Brian Griese, Gradkowski, Simms, and even traded for Jake Plummer (who refused to report). Now, I can understand being prepared for injury, but Gruden took it to a level that was almost laughable. Every time a quarterback was released from another team, Gruden and the Bucs were listed in the media as being “interested.” As it turned out, the Bucs went to the playoffs, but none of the six ended up being world-beaters. The only thing accomplished was Gruden’s name was tarnished just a little bit further.

3. John Lynch (2004): I know it’s tough to part with long-time players, but the way safety John Lynch (NFL Network’s #10 Hardest Hitter in history) was jettisoned will forever be a sore spot for Buc fans. Lynch was 33 when the Bucs released him after claiming he failed a physical after having neck surgery to help alleviate some of “stinger” injuries that he had (no doubt as a result of his teeth-rattling hits). General Manager Bruce Allen tried to sell the story that Lynch was too beat up to justify his $4.1 million salary and released him unceremoniously. Lynch signed with the Broncos prior to the 2004 season. Lynch proved Allen and Gruden wrong by going to the Pro Bowl four times after leaving Tampa Bay (2004-2007). Lynch got his revenge in Week 4 of the 2004 season as the Broncos came to Tampa and beat the Bucs 16-13 sending them to an 0-4 start. Next to Doug Williams and Steve Young, Lynch’s departure might be the worst assessment of a player’s potential and future performance.

4. The Chinese Playbook (2002-2008): Gruden’s playbook was legendary for being an indecipherable hodge-podge of loosely connected adjectives and codes that only made sense to him. Running back Michael Bennett had a hard time getting on the field after he was acquired from the Chiefs in a trade because it was said that the playbook was too difficult to understand. NFL Films has videos of Gruden screaming at the top of his lungs at quarterback Chris Simms and Brad Johnson because they couldn’t remember the laundry list of terms in a single play. I can understand that you want to make your offense your own, but when it’s universally known that your playbook is just slightly less comprehensible than the Torah, you need to make some changes so you can get your talent on the field and out of the classroom.

5. Sickening Devotion to the Wrong Players (2002-2008): In a twist of irony, Dungy was done in by his devotion to his less than stellar offensive coordinator. I guess it was only natural that Gruden would develop some kind of attachment to some personnel that was bad for his reputation as well. Just this past year, the Bucs rushed running back Cadillac Williams back on the field despite having Warrick Dunn and Michael Bennett available after Earnest Graham went down with a season-ending ankle sprain. Rather than use Dunn and Bennett, Gruden and Allen released Bennett and activated Williams from the PUP list. Bennett didn’t even clear waivers as he was sucked up by the Chargers. Gruden then leaned on the aging Dunn toward the end of the season essentially wearing him out, while Williams was used sparingly to get him accustomed to the field again. Then Williams blows out the other knee and is lost for the year. The Bucs went from three viable backs to one. Everyone was rooting for Williams to come back healthy and his recovery was nothing short of miraculous, but rushing him back to the field was the wrong move, especially with the Bucs’ depth at the position. Another example: despite a multitude of sub-par seasons, Gruden and Allen never made a legitimate effort to replace (or even get some competition for) Michael Clayton. It’s well-known that Clayton had a stellar rookie season, but that season is the exception, not the norm. Since his rookie season, Clayton has yet to match his touchdown output from his rookie season (Seven TDs in 2004. Two total since). And what’s worse, Clayton’s lone touchdown going into the 2008 season had to be reviewed in order to stand – it wasn’t even a “clean” catch. Allen and Gruden stubbornly handicapped the offense by never replacing (or attempting to replace) Clayton. It might be that Gruden thought Clayton was a tight end because Gruden was never shy about signing body after body to play tight end, sometimes getting three on the field at the same time (Hey! Don’t they all play the same position?). And for some inexplicable reason, Clayton was RE-SIGNED AFTER GRUDEN AND ALLEN DEPARTED! Why? He might be secretly married to a Glazer.

Honorable Mention:

Dexter Jackson (2008): The Bucs were in need of a playmaker at wide receiver (and in other news, water is still wet). The closest the Bucs ever came to bolstering the wide receiving corps was the drafting of Appalachian State wide receiver Dexter Jackson in the second round of the draft. Gruden then drops the news that Jackson WON’T be used as a wide receiver, but will be given the opportunity to return kicks and punts. Well, that was a pick well spent. As it turns out, Jackson had worse hands than Clayton, but even more maddening was his intense fear of contact (you picked the wrong career, Dex). So, Allen and Gruden drafted a wide receiver who doesn’t play wide receiver, and subsequently is more afraid of contact than Samuel L. Jackson in Unbreakable. It’s the one draft pick that Matt Millen can laugh at.

Meet Barrett Ruud: The Pain-Free Way

2009-06-19T20:45:21Z

Meet Barrett Ruud: The Pain-Free Way

Can Clifton Repeat?

2009-06-19T17:50:53Z

There's no doubt that Clifton Smith provided one of the feel good stories of the 2008 NFL season for Buc's fans. An undrafted free agent, he was largely expected to be just another NFL body. After all, we had drafted return man extraordinaire Dexter Jackson in the 2nd round to take care of the return game. To avoid any hyperbole and avoid a story we all know too well, Jackson didn't exactly pan out in year 1. Clifton Smith soon won the job and by the end of the year, was lounging in Hawaii on the NFC Pro Bowl Roster. He provided a spark to our return game and cemented the job as our punt/kick return man.

I want to put aside his crossover into the running game and look strictly at his return numbers. More specifically, I wanted to look at how Pro Bowl return men have fared in the year after their Pro Bowl season to see if we can generate any type of expectations for Smith. I looked at the Pro Bowl returners for 1999-2007 seasons, and threw Clifton in to showcase his numbers. I took their return average for both kickoffs and punts (where available), return touchdowns (again for kickoffs and touchdowns) and compared them year over year to see how they fared. I also looked their career arc (to date) and career numbers. *Note* All players were kickoff return men, not all returned punts.

A few facts before we dive in. There were 18 available slots (9 seasons, one player from AFC and NFC respectively). Of those 18 slots, 16 different players were represented (Dante Hall twice, Devin Hester twice). The average age of the player was 25.3. Of the 16 players, 6 are already out of the league. In fact, all players out of the league were out within 3 years of them being named to the Pro Bowl. Some names might seem familiar, but looking at production AFTER their Pro Bowl season, 4 players provided major contributions to their respective teams (Steve Smith - Pro Bowl WR, Dante Hall - repeated as Special Team Pro Bowler, Devin Hester - repeated as Special Teams Pro Bowler, Derrick Mason - still in league and #1 WR with Tenn/Bal). Some of the other members had good careers, but they were in preceding years. It's also too early to make any founded statement on Justin Miller (although he looks like he is on his way out) and Josh Cribbs.

Let's first look at the kickoff return data. The data is set up with their Pro Bowl season average numbers, the year after their Pro Bowl season's data, career data and then change both year over year and Pro Bowl year as compared to their career average.

Year	Player	Avg	Next Avg	Career Avg	Yr vs Yr Avg	PB vs Career
2007	Joshua Cribbs	30.7	25.2	26.3	5.5	4.4
2007	Devin Hester	21.7	21.9	22.8	-0.2	-1.1
2006	Justin Miller	28.3	24	26.6	4.3	1.7
2006	Devin Hester	26.4	21.7	22.8	4.7	3.6
2005	Jerome Mathis	28.6	27.4	28.5	1.2	0.1
2005	Koren Robinson	26	21.1	24.6	4.9	1.4
2004	Terrence McGee	26.3	30.2	26.3	-3.9	0
2004	Allen Rossum	21.6	22.6	23.3	-1	-1.7
2003	Dante Hall	25.9	25.3	23.8	0.6	2.1
2003	Jerry Azumah	29	22	24.2	7	4.8
2002	Dante Hall	23.8	25.9	23.8	-2.1	0
2002	Michael Lewis	25.8	23.7	24.1	2.1	1.7
2001	Jermaine Lewis	24.7	20.9	21.8	3.8	2.9
2001	Steve Smith	25.6	22	24.2	3.6	1.4
2000	Derrick Mason	27	22	22.4	5	4.6
2000	Desmond Howard	24.6	25.4	22.2	-0.8	2.4
1999	Tremain Mack	27.1	20.7	24.5	6.4	2.6
1999	Glyn Milburn	23.4	23.3	24	0.1	-0.6

13 of the 18 represented season saw a decrease in return average, meaning only 5 increased their averages year over year. This represents a pretty steep drop off for Pro Bowl players when looking at kickoff return data. Of the Pro Bowl season, 15 of the 18 represented an average higher than their career average. This would lead you to believe that their Pro Bowl seasons were indeed, "special" season.

Now on to the punt return data, which features the same info. There are less players, as many did not return punts in their respective Pro Bowl years.

Year	Player	Avg	TD	Next Avg	Career Avg	Yr vs Yr	PB vs Career
2007	Joshua Cribbs	13.5	1	8.1	10.6	5.4	2.9
2007	Devin Hester	15.5	4	6.2	12	9.3	3.5
2006	Devin Hester	12.8	3	15.5	12	-2.7	0.8
2004	Allen Rossum	12.4	1	8.5	10.1	3.9	2.3
2003	Dante Hall	16.3	2	10.1	10.5	6.2	5.8
2002	Dante Hall	13.4	2	16.3	10.5	-2.9	2.9
2002	Michael Lewis	14.2	1	9.2	9.8	5	4.4
2001	Jermaine Lewis	12.4	0	7.8	11.1	4.6	1.3
2001	Steve Smith	10.7	1	8.5	9.3	2.2	1.4
2000	Derrick Mason	13	1	6.4	8.7	6.6	4.3
2000	Desmond Howard	14.7	1	9.1	11.9	5.6	2.8
1999	Glyn Milburn	11.5	54	8.6	9.8	2.9	1.7

The only two players to increase their average from one Pro Bowl season to the next were two players that repeated their Pro Bowl honors, Hall and Hester. The rest all fell back down to Earth both in year over year numbers and Pro Bowl vs career numbers.

I wanted to post this data as a cautionary glimpse at how Pro Bowl kick returners fare after their Pro Bowl season. There are may factors that contribute to the decline. Special teams, particularly blockers see high turnover year after year. It stands to reason that if you have a Pro Bowl season behind a stellar unit, and some of those pieces leave, your production has a chance to suffer.

Another few items that contribute are amount of opportunities. Kicking away from certain players, kicking out of bounds, more hang time on punts equal less opportunities for players to shine. A perfect example is Hester in the height of his 2007 season. Coaches implored their kickers/punters to keep the ball away from him. As he was able to field kicks, he displayed the speed and agility that opposing teams feared.

Coming back to Clifton Smith, we have high hopes that he can continue a good run returning kicks. Though the numbers don't tell the whole story, the precedent set for Smith is to see a stark fall off this year in return yards and scores as a return man. Will he receive the same opportunities, or will teams kick away from him. Will our special teams unit perform like they did last year, or will they have a letdown, leading to the decline in Smith's numbers. I was pleasantly surprised with his success last year, but based on the factors listed above, as well as the look into the numbers, we should keep his 2008 in perspective when projecting future seasons.

(On a personal note, I'll be out of the country from Sunday the 21st to Sunday the 28th. I'll be back in full force, hopefully, when i return.)

Blacking Out home games. Is it forthcoming?

2009-06-18T21:58:03Z

So, I am about to head out of the office and just thought I would put this up for discussion. Is anybody else worried that we might not get to watch the home games on television this year. I was one of the thousands of people that did not renew their season tickets (not because I'm no longer a fan, but because my wife got laid off from her work) I am hearing all this stuff about how if the game is not sold out at least few days before Sunday that there won't be any local TV coverage for the games. This is going to suck. I also heard that sometimes the team will buy up the remainder of seats so that this doesn't happen. Does anyone know anything about this? I'm especially worried because with such a tough early schedule it's very likely that we could start out at 2-5 or so and people will stop going to the games. What do you guys think?

By the Numbers - Rehashing the 2008 Defense

2009-06-18T15:27:10Z

It's almost a mutually agreed upon fact that the Buccaneers defense wore down in the last 4 games of the regular season in 2008. We have many visual examples of this (Ronde Barber getting stiff armed to the ground, twice, on back to back plays, and good ole Michael Bush rumbling for a touchdown), but let's take a look at the numbers and see what that tells us.

We'll start by looking at the Buc's defense in relation to passing yards per game, rushing yards per game, yards per passing attempt and yards per carry. This will give us an idea game by game if the Bucs were wearing down towards the end of the season. We will also look at the Buc's per game average and year averages vs the league average. Finally, we'll look at the same numbers from the first 12 games as compared to the last 4 games, those in which the Bucs were panned for giving out. (FYI: passing yards + rushing yards does not equal total yards. The difference is sack yardage). Just to be clear, YPA is yards per (pass) attempt and YPC is yards per carry (rushing)

Week	Total yards	Passing	Rushing	YPA	YPC
1 - Saints	438	343	101	10.72	3.74
2 - Falcons	233	158	75	4.79	2.68
3 - Bears	405	268	158	7.88	4.27
4 - Packers	181	171	28	5.34	1.56
5 - Broncos	333	227	106	6.68	4.08
6 - Panthers	282	242	40	6.21	2.00
7 - Seahawks	176	73	103	3.17	6.44
8 - Cowboys	172	122	70	3.70	2.69
9 - Chiefs	384	201	183	7.73	5.08
11 - Vikings	210	138	99	6.57	3.81
12 - Lions	207	134	108	5.15	4.91
13 - Saints	332	296	44	6.30	2.44
14 - Panthers	464	173	299	8.65	8.08
15 - Falcons	373	206	175	8.96	4.07
16 - Chargers	370	287	90	9.26	3.46
17 - Raiders	337	148	192	7.05	5.49

This paints an incomplete picture, as total yards and game by game change may not mean much, or may have different reasons for fluctuation. To get a more concise picture, let's look at the Buc's per game averages compared to the league average.

Week	Total yards	Passing	Rushing	YPA	YPC
Per Game Avg	306.06	199.19	116.94	6.71	4.24
NFL Avg	317.73	205.43	112.30	6.6	4.2

The numbers are pretty pedestrian. We were slightly better than average in the passing game giving up just under 200 yards a game through the air, but slightly worse than average against the run, giving up 4 more yards a game, and a few inches more per carry. By looking at these numbers, it appears, that while unspectacular, we were an average unit. As a point of reference, we gave up approximately 42 more yards a game (1.3 YPA) in the air, and 40 yards more on the ground (.92 YPC) than the leaders in each (Steelers and Vikings). This is all well and good, but we aren't competing against the league average, and are slightly better or worse numbers when compared to the league average wasn't what showed up on tape.

Here are the numbers for the first 12 games compared to the final 4 games in 2008.

Week	Total yards	Passing	Rushing	YPA	YPC
1-13	3353	2373	1115	6.24	3.72
14-17	1544	814	756	8.57	5.36
NFL Avg	317.73	205.43	112.30	6.6	4.2

The first 12 games of the season, our defense, at least statistically, were performing above average in the pass and run game. We were about a half yard better per attempt and per carry. The final 4 games, the numbers tell the story. In the passing game, the Bucs gave up 2.3 yards more per attempt than they had averaged in the first 3/4 of the season (and 2 yards more per attempt compared to NFL average). The running game didn't fare much better. 1.6 yards per carry more compared to previous in the season and a 1.1 yards more per carry against the NFL average.

Another noteworthy item, the first 12 games we faced 31.6 pass attempts per game and 25 carries per game. The last 4 games we saw only 23.75 pass attempts per game, but saw 35.25 carries per game. Apparently, teams saw something in our defense that gave them the idea they could run against us. They were right.

If we look at where the Bucs ranked from 2001-2208 against the NFL in terms of total yard allowed, passing yards allowed, and rushing yards allowed, the numbers may surprise you.

Year	Total Yards	Passing	Rushing
2008	9	4	19
2007	2	1	17
2006	17	19	17
2005	1	6	6
2004	5	1	19
2003	5	3	13
2002	1	1	5
2001	6	5	12

Though we panned the defense in 2008 for not stopping the run, 6 of the last 8 years we've been out of the top 10 in yards allowed. Our pass defense, minus one year, has statistically always been very good. But the numbers support what it seems we already knew; the defense wore down, but not just in the run game, all across the board.

As we start winding up for the 2009 season, we se that there are improvements to be made across every position. Unfortunately, this collapse can't be fixed or "righted" until we put ourselves in position again in December, and hopefully this time, we close the deal.

Who needs a QB?

2009-06-18T00:04:27Z

I am very surprised that there are not more posts ranting about our offense. All I hear is complaining about not having a QB and on the radio we get blasted for paying KW so much money when he is not even the best TE in the league. Maybe you could say KW is not as good as Jason Witten or Antonio Gates, but even that is a stretch. This guy is a number one reciever that we have at tight end. Then we have one of the top 5 recievers in the league with Bryant assuming he performs atleast as well as he did last year. Not to mention the fact that we seem to pride ourselves on this offensive line of ours (that if they live up to the hype provide plenty of time for a slow release gunslinger like leftwhich). Which in turn gives way to the two headed beast at running back that is a different breed than we have ever had here in Tampa and also the exact mold that has been proven successful in the evolution of the NFL game over the past few years. I mean I could go on and on with little details about the less obvious facts such as the fact that I have never seen a WR run tighter routes than Stroughter, the breakout potential of Kelly Campbell, or even the chance of adding a guy that carried a team to the Super Bowl in Plaxico Burress. But anyways, do we really feel compelled to gripe about the QB situation the way we have forever? There is no way McCown or Leftwhich or ~~Ryan Leaf~~ or either Josh for that matter are so inept that they couldn't atleast lead this team to a .500 season. And maybe our defense is too green and won't be great, but that didn't stop the Colts. Just had to rant because I can't wait to watch the most potent offense the bucs have ever fielded. How many share my enthusiasm.....thoughts????

Follow Up to Clayton Article

2009-06-17T19:24:22Z

I was able to secure information on dropped passes in 2008 for receivers, which I thought might be worth looking into. There can't be any trend analysis or predctive values here as we have one seasons worth of data, but thought it might at least provide some factual basis with which to look at players in relation to the 2008 season.

In the previous piece I discussed targets (balls intended for a WR) as well as what percentage of targets turned into receptions. This is a very vague number as it doesnt indicate what number of passes were catchable.

What I want to do here is look at a few different figures for 2008 involving the Bucs WR's as well as a few similar players in the NFL for comparison sake. We'll look at drops as a % of catchable passes, what % were catchable and % of catches for first downs.

First things first. I'm using receptions + drops to equal catchable balls. We can use this number to see what % of catchable balls were caught/dropped. Secondly, to offer some league comparisons, I've tried to identify some players that play similar roles with somewhat similar body types to each Bucs receiver. Clayton has Muhsin Muhammed, Michael Jenkins, and Amani Toomer (possession receivers over 6'2"). Bryant will be looked at against Braylon Edwards, Roddy White, and Greg Jennings (#1 WR with size/speed). Hilliard and Galloway are posted as Buccaneers references, along with Dunn. I didn't include any other running backs as their drops are not able to be accessed.

Player	Targets	Rec	Drops	% Catchable Dropped	% Catchable	% for 1st Down
Michael Clayton	61	38	2	5.0%	65.6%	34.4%
Antonio Bryant	137	83	5	5.7%	64.2%	43.8%
Ike Hilliard	58	47	2	4.1%	84.5%	53.4%
Joey Galloway	28	13	1	7.1%	50.0%	21.4%
Warrick Dunn	68	47	6	11.3%	77.9%	N/A

You can see here that though Clayton is lambasted for drops, he is the second lowest drop % on the team in 2008. All 3 top WR (Bryant, Clayton, Hilliard) are at a respectable level. Clayton is catching 95% of the catchable balls, with Bryant slightly worse and Hiliard slightly better. Compared to his teammates, he is not accounting for as many first downs, but is securing the ball at a comparable rate. This also shows how Ike was so reliable in converting catches to first downs, at an over 50% rate. Now to compare Clayton and his contemporaries.

Player	Targets	Rec	Drops	% Catchable Dropped	% Catchable	% for 1st Down
Michael Clayton	61	38	2	5.0%	65.6%	34.4%
Muhsin Muhammed	108	65	8	11.0%	67.6%	42.6%
Amani Toomer	89	48	6	11.1%	60.7%	33.7%
Michael Jenkins	81	50	2	3.8%	64.2%	45.7%
Hines Ward	125	81	7	8.0%	70.4%	44.0%

Clayton holds up pretty respectably against these players. All perform similar roles, possession/secondary receivers with size (outside of Ward). He does have a bit of a smaller sample size but is still performing at a better than comparable rate. And now to look at the other Bucs receivers.

Player	Targets	Rec	Drops	% Catchable Dropped	% Catchable	% for 1st Down
Antonio Bryant	137	83	5	5.7%	64.2%	43.8%
Ike Hilliard	58	47	2	4.1%	84.5%	53.4%
Roddy White	148	88	8	8.3%	64.9%	41.2%
Braylon Edwards	138	55	16	22.5%	51.4%	30.4%
Greg Jennings	140	80	7	8.0%	62.1%	39.3%
Brandon Stokley	85	49	4	7.5%	62.4%	41.2%

Based on the subset of numbers above, for all receivers, the Bucs are performing at a pretty good clip in comparison to other similar offenses/players. The Bucs offense really emphasized the short pass, which could attribute for a better than average catch rate, but perhaps all of the discussion on Clayton (or any Bucs) drops were a bit exaggerated. This is only 2008 data, but I think we can all be thankful, that for at least one season we performed well, and we didnt have Butterfingers Edwards on our team.

If anyone has any other comparable players, theories, or questions, I'd be glad to look into them, assuming the availability of data.

Sears Non-Starter

2009-06-17T17:36:06Z

In a somewhat surprising release of information, it appears as if Arron Sears has lost his starting job. As you may or may not know, Sears has been inactive in the offseason due to some apparent concussion issues, either from 2008 or offseason work. The team, and Sears have maintained silence on this issue, calling it a personal matter.

Apparently, Sears wasn't excused from minicamp, and as a result of not being there, a formal change in the depth chart has been made with Zuttah now occupying the starting left guard spot. Morris is quoted as saying about Zuttah

I look out there and I see that number so that’s our guy starting for us right now. That’s his role, that’s his job.

He also added that Sears has to show up and compete for the job to be his, essentially saying that no one can rest on their laurels and be handed the job.

Now, I have no problem with players having to compete for their jobs. I think it is something not typically taken serious in NFL camps with most starters being entrenched before the season begins. I've got no problem with Zuttah playing and being a starter. I think he did a fantastic job filling in as needed last year. My concern is with A) how this situation is being handled and B) what type of message it sends.

If Sears has not been excused from minicamps, and he has no valid excuse, then sure, penalize him. But, if we are going to continue singing the same song that he is out due to injury, and he's dealing with personal matters, thats another story. We've continue to hear how he's dealign with this concussion issue and is working on it. I don't think you call out a player, or infer he lost his job by not being there. Maybe (hopefully) there's more to this story than we currently know. If he is dealing with health realted issues, I hope he can get healthy with no lignering effects and come back to play for the Bucs.

Assuming it is health related, what type of message does this send players? This type of action would seem to lead to players coming back too early from injuries, trying to do too much in order to retain their starting job. The whole concussion fiasco being looked at by the NFL has basically said that players weren't acknowledging their concussions so they could get on the field and not miss time, not lose their job. This seems to be the same type of behavior.

I'll say it again, if this is a health related issue, there are better ways of doing it. You could say "Zuttah is out here with the starters and will continue to be a starter until Sears is back 100% and proven he is ready to go". This leads to some competition, but a message that we have a plan in place. By dusting Sears to the side, for a stated and apparent injury related reason sends the wrong message.

I'm sure this isn't the last we will hear on this matter.

Plax the Pewter Pirate?

2009-06-17T13:27:34Z

According to the St. Pete Times , Raheem Morris made the announcement yesterday that Plaxico Burress, the trigger happy ex-Giants wide receiver, has voiced an interest in playing for the Bucs. Per Morris

He's a great player, any time you get a chance to add a great player to your team, you definitely have got to have some sort of interest. We don't know what's going on with his legal problems, we don't know what's going on with the suspensions in the league. Until we get all that stuff resolved, it's not even worth talking about.

Burress apparently contacted members of the team, Derrick Ward and Antonio Bryant to express his desire to be a Tampa Bay Buccaneer in 2009.

Profootballtalk seems to think that there will not be a legal case brought forth this year, and instead will be pushed back to 2010, freeing Burress up this year, but obviously keeping his future in doubt. From a legal standpoint, it seems as though Burress will remain a free man this year, and with the Commish's silence on the issue, it seems fair to assume that Burress is like any other free agent at this point, ready to be signed and make an impact on their team of choice.

There are a couple of mitigating factors as the Bucs kick the tires on the lanky receiver. The biggest issue has to be the extenuating legal circumstances coupled with his perceived attitude. Is he willing to come to a team where he may be 2nd banana, or even 3rd with Bryant and Winslow already on board? Can he handle not being the main attraction? There's no doubt he is talented, but he was the security blanket for Eli Manning, and thus far, in limited action, we've seen McCown able to spread the ball around, Leftwich is not a one receiver guy, and we haven't even scratched the run heavy offense filled with other playmakers.

Another issue potentially is his contract. He's 31, having been out of action for the last half year due to his legal/team issues. He should be in his statistical prime and no doubt with his numbers, he will want top money. The question is, do we do what we did with Bryant, sign him to a one year "prove it" deal, thus allowing us an out if legal problems ensue? This could potentially have him hold us ransom via the franchise tag or huge salary demands in the next year, assuming the legal issues are worked out. Can we sign him to a cheap deal based on the uncertainity down the road, the "damaged goods" scenario? Any significant contract would tie up alot of money in our WR corps. Bryant is scheduled to make $9.884 Million (all guaranteed), Clayton is on the docket for $24-26 million with 10.5 guaranteed and Winslow signed a 6 year $36.1 million deal (though only 2 years and 20.1 million are guaranteed).

You can see where our potential WR corp would chew up alot of cap room with no guarantees beyond Clayton (Bryant one year contract and I'm assuming/hoping the Bucs wouldn't sign Plax to multi year deal without some out clause). We have the cap space this year to sign him, or anyone, but is it worth it? Do we reward or pay another player before we pay those on the team (i.e. Ruud)? In what is shaping up to be a non-Super Bowl year for the Bucs, do we make this big splash or do we focus on getting things right this year and progress forward.

This also adds another loud voice to a pretty open locker room. There is no doubt with Brooks gone that the locker room is up for grabs. We have two young QB's in McCown and Freeman. It becomes a very dicey call to bring in Plax, who can get sour at times, along with Winslow and a slew of other "characters" (yes you Jerramy Stevens). No one can measure or equate how locker rooms are won, what voices are needed, but I think we can all agree that adding another big voice that has a history of being more negative than positive may not prove beneficial to our young quarterbacks.

This is a wait and see game. The news is out there now, Plax is interested in the Bucs, Morris has given the proper lip service on the situation, the question now stands, do we bring him in, or do we look elsewhere? Should Plax get signed by the Bucs, maybe we can let him fire off the cannons, put that itchy trigger finger to use for a good cause this time.

Barrett Ruud's Contract Situation

2009-06-17T09:10:36Z

Today we got confirmation that Ruud's absence from OTAs was contract related. This shouldn't have come as any surprise, as there was rampant speculation that this was the case. The surprise came here:

But Ruud's attempt to speed things along hasn't brought much in the way of contract talks.

"No discussions," Ruud said. "There haven't been any."

SOURCE

Ruud fell just short of making the Pro Bowl last year, after leading the team (by a large margin) in tackles. He is easily the most proven player left on his side of the ball after this offseason's roster moves. The coaches have stated on more than one occasion that they intend for him to be the face of the defense.

And yet, for whatever reason, they have done nothing to get Barrett Ruud back onto the field. From a financial standpoint, the Buccaneer's apparent stance makes sense. Assuming they enter into an uncapped year next year, Ruud will be a restricted free agent, which will all but ensure his continued presence in Tampa. On the outside, you wouldn't think that Ruud would have any sort of leverage in this scenario.

That is, unless you happen to drive by one of the many billboards with Ruud plastered on them. Or if you drive by the stadium and see the giant banner with Ruud's likeness. When you look at the situation from a public relations standpoint, the Bucs' position borders on flabbergasting. If Ruud is to be a leader on this team, he needs to not only be present for all team activities, he also has to be happy.

"I'd like to be here a long time," Ruud said. "I'd like to be with the Buccaneers. I've really enjoyed the organization. I think it's a first-class organization. It's a great community and I like my teammates, so I'd like to be here for a long time. In that respect, yeah, I'm disappointed that it hasn't progressed."

SOURCE

So as it stands now, the Bucs are 0-2 on that front. The truly perplexing thing about the situation, though, is that it's not as though the Bucs don't have a whole mess of cap room left to play with. They just gave Kellen Winslow, someone who hasn't played a single down in Pewter and Red, a $36 million extension, even though he was still under contract for another 2 years. The Winslow extension made sense at the time, and still does, considering it was displeasure with his contract in Cleveland that got him to argue his way out of town. However, if you can't extend the same courtesy to the supposed leader of the new-look Bucs defense, what happens?

We might find out.

I, for one, hope a deal gets done sooner rather than later. Ruud belongs here. They need to do what it takes to make sure he stays as long as humanly possible.

Michael Clayton - An Act of Fiction?

2009-06-16T15:50:13Z

With the 15th pick in the 2004 draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select WR Michael Clayton from Louisiana State University.

And with that, the Bucs had apparently drafted our go-to receiver for the next 10 years, a physical, big receiver who had no issue with going across the middle. He rewarded us with a rookie season that had us dreaming of what this guy could do with the football in his hands. Sadly, the next four seasons have been largely a disappointment. There have been a few memorable plays, “The Block”, his game winning touchdown catch against Cincinnati in 2006, and his return to the land he had forgotten (the end zone) in 2008.

There are a number of reasons for his drop off, but one of the biggest goes unnoticed. First, let’s address the known reasons.

1) Lazy/Ill-prepared: After his break out rookie season, Clayton came into 2005 out of shape and unprepared. He admitted that success might have come too easily, thus he slacked off and didn’t prepare as a true professional should.

2) Injuries: He’s battled various nagging injuries that haven’t allowed him to practice, train or stay on the field. In the offseason after 2004 he had minor knee surgery, holding him out of any conditioning work. In 2005 he had turf toe which hampered him down the stretch and ultimately led to his benching in week 17 and the playoff loss against Washington. 2006 saw him go on injured reserve for the ever popular “undisclosed injury”.

3) Emergence of other Receivers: Galloway came over the same year Clayton did (2004) but after injuring himself in the first game, it allowed Clayton to take over. Galloway’s re-emergence in 2005, Ike Hilliard’s reliability and the recent re-discovery of Bryant have left Clayton as the forgotten receiver.

4) Mental: There is no doubt in my mind that Clayton can succeed. His mental lapses likely stem from trying to hard; trying to do much when afforded the opportunity. His drops have plagued him (and the team) and the lack of confidence by then head coach Jon Gruden only seemed to put Clayton further behind the 8 ball.

5) System: Gruden’s offense has a history of primarily focusing on one receiver. That individual (Galloway, Bryant etc) has an opportunity to turn in statistical highs based on increased targets and routes run. Without going too in depth, it’s designed to allow the primary receiver to run free in the mid to deep zones, with the 2/3 WR occupying the underneath routes.

6) Decrease in Snaps: All of the above points led to this, decrease in snaps. It’s a pretty simple concept. The more you’re injured, the less trust the coach has in you, the more unprepared you are, the less you see the field.

One of the bigger culprits in Clayton’s lack of production comes from a relatively easy to understand concept: lack of targets. It stands to reason that an NFL wide receiver can only produce statistically (what most fans notice) when given the opportunity. In short, if he doesn’t have the pass thrown his way, how can he catch and score? I went back through Clayton’s NFL career (2004-present) and compiled his stats based on targets, along with the NFL’s top target receiver each year and the Bucs leader. I took a look at (in order) Targets, Receptions, Yards, Yards per Target, % of Targets caught, and NFL rank in Targets.

Year	Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Yards/Target	% targets caught	NFL rank
2008	Marshall (NFL Leader)	182	104	1265	6.95	57.14%	1st
2008	Bryant (Buc's Leader)	138	84	1249	9.05	60.87%	9th
2008	Clayton	61	38	484	7.93	62.30%	71st

2007	Marshall (NFL Leader)	170	102	1325	7.79	60.00%	1st
2007	Galloway (Buc's Leader)	96	57	1014	10.56	59.38%	38th
2007	Clayton	40	22	301	7.53	55.00%	92nd

2006	Holt (NFL Leader)	179	93	1188	6.64	51.96%	1st
2006	Galloway (Buc's Leader)	142	62	1057	7.44	43.66%	12th
2006	Clayton	64	33	356	5.56	51.56%	66th

2005	Boldin (NFL Leader)	171	102	1398	8.18	59.65%	1st
2005	Galloway (Buc's Leader)	152	83	1287	8.47	54.61%	7th
2005	Clayton	55	32	372	6.76	58.18%	74th

2004	Ocho Cinco (NFL Leader)	170	95	1274	7.49	55.88%	1st
2004	Clayton (Buc's Leader)	122	80	1193	9.78	65.57%	22nd

Let’s break this down stat by stat. The most obvious is targets. This is typically defined as any ball thrown at a receiver where they were the intended target. The ball does not necessarily have to be catchable, just in the direction of the receiver where they were the intended target. Clayton was our number 1 WR in 2004 in every statistical category. Removing bias from the equation, and forgetting about whether he deserved more looks than he received, you can see he went from a true #1, a top 25 guy in targets, to never better than 66th in targets. Lack of trust, lack of playing time, inability to hold on to the ball all contributed here. He consistently saw less than half of the looks that the Bucs #1 WR received from 2005-2008.

I don’t want to dwell on catches too long as some targets aren’t catchable (as mentioned above). I wanted to compare total number of drops and drop % but can’t find any historical data on drops. If you know where to find that data, let me know and I will include it.

Yards per target gives an indication of how a receiver is able to utilize each opportunity and is not as easily swayed by small or long gains. After all, if a WR received 10 targets in a game, but caught 1 for an 80 yard TD, his yards per catch is 80.0, but his yards per target is 8. Those other 7 passes may have been shorter routes.

The % of targets caught surprisingly falls into a similar range as the Buc's and NFL's leader. What does this mean? Absolutely nothing without further research. Without knowing how many were catchable, how many were dropped, and where the routes took place (a screen is easier to catch than a 40 yard bomb with 2 DB's on you), I don't want to make any all encompassing statements.

Let me be the first to point out that lack of targets does not solely describe Clayton’s downturn in production. As mentioned above, work ethic from a young receiver, injuries, mental lapses and even lack of confidence by coach and QB all attribute to his downturn. This does indicate his changing role in the Bucs offense. He went from their do it all receiver (2004) with a yards per target of 9.77 yards to a role playing 2nd/rd receiver, declining as low as 5.56 yards per target.

I’m perfectly fine with Clayton being a secondary receiver, a possession option. His wide frame and lack of elite speed make him ideal to run across the middle and position himself to be successful. We have a deep threat and a number 1 WR in Bryant (and did in Galloway), so to expect a replay of 2004 from Clayton is unrealistic. His numbers, his size, his mentality at this point all lead to a role as a possession guy. To do this, he has to not only adapt and check his ego, he has to become a better route runner. He has to learn to read not only the defense, but his quarterback, how to break off his routes at the right time and use his body as an asset against defensive backs and line backers.

For all that Clayton has done wrong; there are plenty of things that he does exceptionally well. Outside of his statistically strong 2004 season, he has become a great contributor in the run game with his blocking. There’s no question where #80 will be when he doesn’t have the ball. He continuously works for his team mates down the field, which has led some to call for his move to tight end. This might be ill-conceived, but it is a testament to his willingness to do the dirty work that often is overlooked.

I was in the camp that Clayton needed to go, that there was no explaining his regression as a receiver. But with Clayton signing a five year deal with the Bucs this offseason; we are in for a few more years of #80. He has shown he can be a playmaker (2004). He has shown flashes of his old self in years past. He's a Buc, and as such I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. The past excuses of injuries, system, coach, are all gone, this year presents a fresh new offense witha new QB and new coach. This is his opportunity to break away from the Clayton mold.

This isn't a comprehensive look at Clayton, nor am I inferring that Clayton is a definite #1 or #2 WR, merely that we as fans tend to call players out based on lack of production. We use those easy-to-read box scores that only display the oft-tracked data; Yards, catches, TD’s. It doesn’t account for blocking, drops, or targets. One of the biggest plays for Clayton that drew everyone’s attention was his block against New Orleans that sprung Galloway for a touchdown, and last I checked, that never showed up in the box score.

For more on Clayton, check out Niko521buc's two part story

Part 1

Part 2

Barrett Ruud - 5th Season Superstar?

2009-06-15T15:27:22Z

The 2009 season will be Ruud's 5th season in the NFL, his 3rd as a full time starter. The mustached hero from Nebraska has quietly become one of the stalwarts in the middle, a smart, free-flowing defender who has made his way onto the majority of the "Best MLB'ers in the league." He has proven time and again that he is not only a smart defender, but a rangy one at that, securing one of the more acrobatic interceptions last year. While he was a perfect fit for the Cover 2 scheme that Kiffin and company installed in Tampa a decade ago, there are some concerns, albeit minor ones, as to how he will learn and fit into this new system.

The cover 2 maximized Ruud's strengths. He was decisive and able to read plays on the first step, he was speedy for a linebacker, able to take away the middle part of the field in his Cover 2 drop, and for the most part, was a sure tackler, able to stop forward progress at the point of contact and secure the tackle.

Moving into a different scheme, he will be asked to do different things. Jim Bates' scheme focuses on speedy linebackers, which Ruud should fit into. The most important part for Ruud will be the ability of the defensive line, specifically the tackles to keep him "clean" and allow him to flow to the ball, or more importantly have everything funnel to him where he can make the sure tackle. The biggest concern is the ability to stay on the field, which stands true for most players. As he is involved in more plays, it raises the potential to get dinged up. He hasn't shown a propensity to miss time and hopefully the trend continues.

Ruud's stats seem to indicate a player who "gets it". Using NFL.com stats, here are his last two years (only years as full time starter). Keep in mind the "tackle" stat is a bit subjective

Year	Tackles	Solo	Assisted	Sacks	Int
2008	137	102	35	3	2
2007	114	83	31	0	2

This ranked him 4th in total tackles in 2007 and in the top 10 in INT's for linebackers. His 3 sacks were an added bonus as the Mike LB is not typically asked to blitz or be in the backfield in the Tampa 2 system. His 114 tackles in 2007 ranked him 19th in the NFL, just ahead of perennial Pro-Bowler Derrick Brooks.

What can we expect from Ruud in his 5th season? Perhaps the most notable player to use for comparison is Zach Thomas, who was coached by Bates in Miami. To compare, we'll look at Thomas before and after Bates. To do this, I'll use the his average numbers in all years which he was a full time starter before Bates (96-99) and his average numbers with Bates' system in place (00-04)

Year	Tackles	Solo	Assisted	Sacks	Int
00-04	152.25	91.75	60.5	1.625	1.5
96-99	138	91	47	1.375	2

His solo tackles stayed roughly the same (and about in line with Ruud to date), but he was involved in many other plays, as his assisted tackles jumped 27% under Bates' system.

Another interesting parallel is age. Thomas came into the league at the age of 23, and was first linked to Bates at the age of 27, typically a players prime. Ruud came into the league at the age of 22 and is 26 this year, his first with Bates. Ruud is a bit taller than Thomas, but this shouldnt affect any abilities as Ruud has shown both good coverage skills and the ability to get low to make a tackle.

Of all the changes in systems, both offensive and defensive, Ruud's change seems to be the most seamless. There's new lingo, new styles, new players to learn, but this system is built for someone like Ruud. As long as he stays on the field and adapts to the system, this looks to be right up his alley. He has been all over the field in previous years, and with that ability coupled with the idea that each play is meant to flow to the MLB in Bates' system, I can't see Ruud doing anything other than flourishing the next few years. I dont think any of us would be disappointed if he put up Thomas like numbers for the next few years.

There are other factors to consider in this. How will our DT's play? Will they allow Ruud to make plays? Will this contract situation and a possible hold out hinder him and/or the team? (On that note, I think we all can agree Ruud is a rising talent, and a future star in the league if he isn't already one. Let's use some of that cap space and lock him up). We won't be able to answer any of these questions until next off season, when we have a chance to look back and see how the system did in year 1. So as we start to anticipate the start of the 2009 season, we know a key factor is how the defense plays, and that rests squarely on the shoulders of Mr. Ruud. I don't see anything that indicates a fall off or plateau, but rather see a chance for Ruud to step up and be a leader both on and off the field. The locker room has primarily been cleared of any veteran voices, which will give Ruud a cahnce to establish himself as a locker room leader, and field general.

You typically hear that in the 3rd year is when most players get it, when you can really start to evaluate if they are here to stay or merely a role player or castoff. We have several players stepping into their 3rd year (Gaines Adams for one). While this is Ruud's 5th year, its his 3rd as an everyday starter. But based on previous years of play, the history of MLB's in Bates's scheme, and Ruud hitting his physical prime for the next few years, the stars are aligning for Ruud to become the next great linebacker in Buccaneers history.

(On a personal note, I haven't decided if I'll do a position by position analysis of Tampa 2 vs 4-3 "Run Contain". Might be interesting to see how each position is valued, what we have, how they performed and were valued in the Tampa 2 and the projections/comparisons from the past).

Want to write for Buc 'Em?

2009-06-15T10:20:05Z

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