Patriot Missive

Newsweek Picks Up On Balad Burn Pit Story

Ms. Missive — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 05:35:42 +0000

Better late than never, Newsweek:

Josh Eller, a military contractor stationed in Iraq in 2006, was driving through Balad Air Base when he spotted the wild dog. He wasn’t sure what was in its mouth—but when Eller saw two bones, he knew he was looking at a human arm. The dog had pulled the limb from an open-air “burn pit” on the base used to incinerate waste. Eller says it’s “one of the worst things I have seen.”

Since hearing Eller’s story, lawyer Elizabeth Burke has signed on 190 additional clients with complaints about burn pits at 18 military sites in Iraq and Afghanistan. By now, she says, all pits should have been replaced by pollution-controlled incinerators. She’s filed suits in 17 states against KBR, the company contracted to provide waste-disposal services at these bases, accusing it of negligence and harm. Burke was shocked to learn what her clients saw incinerated: Humvees, batteries, unexploded ordnance, gas cans, mattresses, rocket pods, and plastic and medical waste (including body parts, which may explain the arm). Fumes containing carcinogenic dioxins, heavy metals, and particulates, according to an Army–Air Force risk assessment, waft freely across bases.

Burke’s plaintiffs mostly suffer from chronic or unusual medical complications that they believe were caused by burn-pit exposure. Shawn Sheridan, who served two tours at Balad, says black smoke from the pit was so thick at times he couldn’t see through it with night–vision goggles. Sheridan, 26, was healthy when he enlisted six years ago. Now he has a kidney disease, chronic bronchitis, and a painful skin condition.

KBR won’t discuss burn pits while it reviews the suits. A spokeswoman e-mails that KBR isn’t responsible for the Balad pit (Burke alleges it is) and that “any burn pit operated in Iraq or Afghanistan is done pursuant to Army guidelines.” But Kevin Robbins, a former KBR employee who ran a pit near Al Kut, says he got no guidelines on what could be burned when he arrived.

The May 2008 risk assessment of the Balad pit suggested “as much as several hundred tons” of waste was burned each day, but CentCom tells NEWSWEEK it’s now down to about 54 tons. The report found allowable levels of toxins in its air samples. Still, two members of Congress have introduced a bill instructing the DOD to end the practice and monitor the health of service members exposed to fumes. “We certainly would not allow these burn pits in our own country,” says Rep. Tim Bishop.

[source: Newsweek]

McCain Wants to Provide Iranians Free Wi-Fi

Ms. Missive — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 07:06:49 +0000

The Congressional black sheep have spoken:

Graham, McCain, and Independent Senator Joe Lieberman said they aimed to boost US-backed radio news broadcasts into Iran and help skirt Iranian restrictions on cellular phones and Internet access.

“We want the Iranian people to be able to stay one step ahead of the Iranian regime, getting access to information and safely exercising freedom of speech and freedom of assembly online,” said Lieberman.

McCain said the legislation aimed to boost funding to Radio FARDA, a part of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, to help the Farsi-language outlet battle Iranian jamming, and to make cellular telephone crackdowns more difficult.

“The fact is that the Iranian government is now illegitimate,” he charged.

Other goals include boosting Voice of America broadcasts in Farsi and helping Iranians preserve access to social networking Internet sites like Twitter and Facebook and the video-sharing site YouTube, which protestors used to organize and disseminate images of the government’s crackdown, said McCain.

“During the Cold War, we provided the Polish people and dissidents with printing presses. Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube are the modern-day printing presses. They are the way to spread information and keep the hope of freedom alive amongst the Iranian people,” said McCain.

The bill, to be written over the congressional break for the July 4 US independence day celebration, would seek to give Iranians the tools “to evade the censorship and surveillance of the regime online,” he said.

And McCain vowed to investigate charges that non-Iranian firms helped Tehran monitor and block cellular and online traffic “and even track down sources of political content deemed off limits by the regime.”

All three lawmakers praised US President Barack Obama for making his toughest remarks yet on Iran during a press conference Tuesday, denouncing the crackdown and warning of worsening relations with the international community.

“I appreciate it,” said McCain, who had sharply criticized Obama’s previous remarks, while Graham declared: “I’m very proud of my president, about what he said.”

[source: raw story]

Stand by for the Combat iPhone

Ms. Missive — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:55:09 +0000

Before a U.S. Special Forces Soldier heads out for battle in Afghanistan, he can’t forget equipment that is essential to his survival.

Assault rifle? Check.

Grenades? Check.

Cell phone? Check.

This scenario, or something like it, could be in the near future if technology now being evaluated in Suffolk by U.S. Joint Forces Command makes it onto the battlefield.

The tactical cellular phone, or TACTICELL, is one of 21 battlefield technologies being put through a series of rigorous tests as part of an international demonstration aimed at giving U.S. and NATO fighting forces an edge.

The super cell phone employs a roving van that acts like a mobile cell tower, and the special operations Soldier carries an off-the-shelf cell phone that handles voice, data and video.

But instead of sending text message to friends, he receives a video, shot from the sky, that shows the rear of a building he’s about to assault. The Soldier can spot traps and assess the enemy’s strength. With the van patrolling several miles away, it allows Soldiers to have a more complete picture of the battlefield as they venture away from base and into trouble.

The 10-day event, which ends today, is known as CWID, which stands for Coalition Warrior Interoperability Demonstration.

Other technologies on display include a high-tech tracker that fits under the U.S. flag emblem of a uniform and allows commanders to pinpoint individuals and units, limiting the chance of death by friendly fire.

The “coalition” part of CWID certainly applies.

The Italian navy and Finland have fielded surveillance or communications tools, and demonstrations are being played out at several U.S. locations besides Suffolk, including the Naval Surface Warfare Center in Dahlgren.

International participants are based in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom and Norway.

As the previous examples imply, CWID is not about testing tanks and missiles, but technology that increases battlefield awareness and allows different systems — and different countries — to communicate more effectively with each other.

The worldwide demonstrations played out in USJFCOM’s Joint Systems Integration Center, a short drive from Suffolk fast-food restaurants and shopping centers.

Among the players was Capt. Mario Marques of the Portuguese navy.

He was particularly interested in the Italian and Finnish projects, which performed a scenario that tracked vessels suspected of carrying weapons of mass destruction.

Navy Capt. Kirk Hornburg said the testers in CWID — all military personnel with battle experience — face a thought process similar to a civilian who buys a new home computer.

During those first few minutes in the store, a computer might seem like the perfect, do-it-all tool.

After a couple of weeks at home, you notice a few things that could be improved, or you find that it doesn’t run all of your favorite programs at once.

Over the course of CWID, testers have the chance to get over their fascination with the “newness” of a technology and push it to its limits, Hornburg said.

A communications tool might work well with five people, but not with 50. A surveillance program might require too many keystrokes to reach a certain point.

Only extended testing can spot those problems.

“We are not successful in CWID if things work,” he said.

[source: military.com]

The Afghan Dream Team

lowe — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 06:17:10 +0000

There’s a great story in the New York Times about the Pentagon giving Gen. McChrystal a lot of leeway to put together his “dream team” of Afghan command.

It’s precisely what the doctor ordered and the kind of thing that folks like Nagl and the Kagans have been saying would be the key to success there. It’s the same kind of carte blanche control that GW Bush gave Petraeus — with great success in a very short time.

Also, it’s brilliant that McC wants these guys to stay on for three years instead of one year stints in their billets. They’ll become more invested in the success of the fight and have greater insight into the inner workings of Afghanistan.

The Times story says Gates and Mullen have impressed upon McChrystal that Afghanistan is the “main effort”…it’s about time from my perspective. And it’s a good thing that we have a steely-eyed special operator at the helm. He understands economy of force, unconventional warfare and rapid tasking — which is just the kind of mindset the conflict in Afghanistan needs.

Another interesting note…the Times piece mentions that McC asked Rear Adm. Greg Smith to be his chief of public affairs. Petraeus did the same thing when he asked Smith to come over to Iraq to assess the PA operation there and when Smith delivered his report said “OK, can you stay here and implement it for me?”

Smith was due to retire but has reportedly agreed to stay on with McC…true patriots all and we wish them the best of luck.

– Christian

US Soldiers Deliver Armored Trucks to Iraqi Army

Ms. Missive — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 09:56:15 +0000

Iraqi troops in northeastern Baghdad have a new weapon in their arsenal, thanks to U.S. soldiers here.

Soldiers from 115th “Muleskinner” Brigade Support Battalion of the 1st Cavalry Division’s 1st Brigade Combat Team delivered five up-armored Ford F-350 trucks to the 11th Iraqi Army Division at Joint Security Station Rasheed here June 19.

The upgraded trucks offer significant protection and maneuverability for Iraqi Staff Maj. Gen. Mizher Shaher Lateef and his men to move about in his area of operations, said Army Capt. Peter Bogart, the brigade’s provost marshal. “It was a project that highlights the partnership we have with the [Iraqi army],” Army Maj. Michele Reid, the battalion’s executive officer, added.

Soldiers on Mizher’s personal security detachment will use the trucks to escort the general during his daily operations. The detachment’s officer in charge will be held responsible for the maintenance and upkeep of the vehicles.

Soldiers from the 115th BSB’s B Company armored the trucks by increasing the amount of protective layers inside and outside the vehicles. After 37 days and about 60 work hours per truck, the trucks were complete and ready for delivery to Mizher.

“The soldiers in the service and recovery shop worked extremely hard on these trucks,” said Army Chief Warrant Officer Staceyann McNish, the battalion’s service and recovery chief. “They spent numerous manhours perfecting the construction of these turrets and gunner’s boxes. The end result was breathtaking.”

Other than determining the best way to complete the armor, the project went quite smoothly, Reid said. “We did have to consider the added weight of Kevlar and metal to how it would affect the trucks,” she explained, “along with considering road conditions.”

The beds of the trucks now contain a gunner’s box made of armor plating and Kevlar for maximum protection while on patrols. The seats are lined with Kevlar and were re-upholstered to cover it.

“We are very grateful to the United States military for all their help,” said 2nd Lt. Salem Ibrahim, a platoon leader for the 11th Iraqi Army Infantry Division. “It has been a great opportunity to work this closely with the coalition forces.”

[source: decencetalk]

Iran Fears Drive Mid-East Arms Rush

David Axe — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 11:08:18 +0000

Iranian protesters defied Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s warnings of “bloodshed” and took to the streets over the weekend, to protest the country’s allegedly rigged election. Riots cops responded with batons, tear gas and water cannons. Earlier, hard-line Basji militias reportedly broke into protesting students’ dorms, to intimidate or even beat them.

No one knows how the escalating protests will play out, in the end. More broadly, regional worries over Iran have propelled a lucrative arms market, dominated by U.S. defense firms. While most countries cut back their military spending, due to the global recession, many of Iran’s neighbors are continuing years-long shopping sprees for high-tech arms, apparently aimed at building an iron wall around Iran. Egypt, Israel, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE account for the majority of sales, projected to total $70 billion, this year. The bulk of the sales are for fighter jets and missile defenses.

The U.S. is careful not to single out Iran as the major factor in weapons sales. “This is about building a more secure world,” said Bruce Lemkin, a U.S. Air Force official who oversees many arms deals. But Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was less circumspect, when he told his political party that “the Persians are trying to devour the Arab states.” Forecast International is equally forthright, citing “worries over Iran” as the major driver of military investment by the Arab states and Israel.

Using weapons exports to shore up defenses against Iran is a calculated move by the Obama administration, experts say. Defense industry analyst Jim McAleese said the Pentagon is boosting subsidies to Middle East weapons buyers, using so-called “defense-wide” funds to shore up allies’ defenses. It’s cheaper in the long run to help other countries pay for the weapons they need to fight their own battles, than it is for the U.S. to deploy its forces, McAleese said.

[PHOTO: IDEX]

It is about Iran, not about America!

Howard Baskerville — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 19:06:41 +0000

There is a silly debate starting about the impact of President Obama on the Iranian election. It is worth noting that President Obama is making no such claims. Here are some examples:

“'Whereas the Bush administration united Iran's disparate political factions against a common threat, Obama's overtures have accentuated the deep divisions and incongruities among Iran's political elites,'' said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (from the BBC).

Could there be something to all the talk of an Obama effect, after all? A stealth effect, perhaps?
…
And in his Cairo address June 4, he accepted responsibility for America’s part in the enmity between the United States and Iran.
“In the middle of the cold war, the United States played a role in the overthrow of a democratically elected Iranian government,” Mr. Obama said — a reference to the 1953 coup in which an Iranian prime minister, under whom Iran had nationalized its oil industry, was overthrown and the now-despised Shah was restored to power. (from The New York Times).

So is there “an Obama effect” in Iran?

Short answer: No

Long answer: No

Why? Because the Clinton Administration made the same overtures. Here and here are links to stories from 2000 in which Madeleine Albright acknowledged the U.S. role in the 1953 coup in Iran. President Obama is saying little different from his last Democratic predecessor.

What has changed is Iran. Back in 2000 Iran was run by a so-called reformist who was running into opposition from the same forces that have recently showed just how dishonest Iran's system is. Today Iranians are on the streets in protest against that act of massive electoral fraud and the regime's violent response.

It is about them. It is not about us.

Obama vs. The Fly

Ms. Missive — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 14:19:19 +0000

Do you dare?

Air Force Puts the Brakes on Solar Project

Ward — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 12:55:07 +0000

A few years ago a Los Angeles-based firm called SolarReserve had what they thought was a great alternative energy idea: A field of mirrors directs sunlight toward a tower filled with salt. The salt heats up to 1,050 degrees Fahrenheit and then flows down to a container where the heat is used to drive turbines that can power upwards of 50,000 homes.

Naturally such a device would need to be built where the sun shines a lot. And, ideally, it wouldn’t take up space in a populated area or harm wildlife.

Hey, how about the Nevada desert? At a glance that makes sense, except once you start to move on the idea you realize that “Nevada desert” is synonymous with “Nellis Air Force Base Range Complex.”

And among military ranges, Nellis is as mysterious as they come, even for the military aviators who’ve flown around there. (”The Box” — rumored to be where nuke testing goes on — notoriously lurks adjacent to regular operating areas. Troll into it and you’ll lose your first-born not to mention your wings.)

So it’s little surprise that after originally warming to the idea, the Air Force has balked at having the project on home turf. After all, who wants a bunch of green-minded brainiacs from LA (where they worship the devil — very un-USAF) arcing around your ‘hood, even if your ‘hood is in the middle of nowhere?

Read the entire article here.

(Photo: SolarReserve ~~artist’s rendering~~ photo)

– Ward

New NATO Boss: Colombia Prepared Me for Afghanistan (Corrected)

David Axe — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 20:04:28 +0000

Navy Adm. James Stavridis, arguably the sea service’s intellectual leader, is making the leap from Latin America’s U.S. Southern Command, to the top job at European Command. That means he’ll also be NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, which puts him at the head of in the chain of command for the faltering NATO war effort in Afghanistan. (See here for an explanation of NATO’s complex command structure.)

So how has his experience in Latin America prepared him for waging war on a deeply entrenched insurgency, half a world away from his previous command? “The operations I’ve been most focused on in South America has been the insurgency in Colombia,” Stavridis told the Florida Times-Union, in a wide-ranging interview.

My experience there will translate well to my role as the NATO commander in Afghanistan, which is, let’s face it, an insurgency, drug-fueled, obviously 100 percent different in many ways. But, my experiences in understanding and learning counter-insurgency I think are up to the task.

This is one of the first times a senior U.S. commander has drawn a parallel between Colombia and Afghanistan. Stavridis explained the seemingly tenuous connection.

Both are insurgencies seeking to topple the government, both are drug-fueled. In Colombia it’s a political insurgency. In Afghanistan, it is a deeper, more cultural, religious-based insurgency.

Based on his experience in Colombia, Stavridis praised the elevation of commando Gen. Stan McChrystal, to lead U.S. and NATO forces, at the operational level, in Afghanistan. “I think he’s a perfect choice. He has deep, deep tactical experience in insurgency.”

Stavridis, the author of several widely read books, is no stranger to controversial claims. In March, he told Senators that Lebanese extremist group Hezbollah was involved in the Colombian drug trade. A retired Lebanese general fired back, saying there was no evidence of such involvement.

[PHOTO: Colombian drug-smuggling submersible, via Daylife]

Pentagon Deploys Experimental Missile Shield to Hawaii

David Axe — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 15:31:26 +0000

When North Korea threatened to launch a ballistic missile in March, the Pentagon responded coolly. No effort would be made to shoot down the test missile, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said. The experimental, floating SBX missile-defense radar, would stay in dry-dock. This was a test, not an imminent attack, after all; and it would’ve cost as much as $100 million to move the thing into place.

How times have changed. First came the attempted launch in April. Then, last month, Pyongyang detonated a test nuclear device, which may or may not have worked as planned. Now the Norks are threatening to launch another Taepodong-2 missile, with a 4,000-mile range, towards Hawaii — and Gates is pulling out all the stops, to prepare for an intercept.

That means sending Army Terminal High-Altitude Air Defense missile systems, still in development, to the islands, and deploying the SBX radar. Joint Chiefs vice chairman General James Cartwright said he was “90-plus percent” sure the U.S. could intercept a Nork missile, in the unlikely event it overflew U.S. territory.

THAAD, you might recall, had a weak start in the 1990s, when it failed to hit targets in six test intercepts, in a row. A redesign improved the system considerably: a second round of test intercepts since 2005 scored five for five. For all its apparent success, THAAD is still unproven, in combat. Critics say that a real warhead would be faster, and surrounded by sensor-confusing debris, unlike the relatively slow, and clean, test targets.

SBX is equally controversial. The huge, X-band radar has been plagued by maintenance problems and reports of fragility and security gaps. Intended for rough, Alaskan waters, SBX has spent much of its time confined to the calmer waters, further south. “The bottom line is that the designers of this system didn’t begin to contemplate the realistic conditions under which the X-band would have to operate,” said Phil Coyle, former top Pentagon weapons tester.

Ready or not, THAAD and SBX might finally get their first real-world tests, if North Korea makes good on its threat.

The tension over North Korean nukes, satellites and missiles is surely a welcome boost for missile-defense supporters. President Barack Obama has been wishy-washy in his support for missiles defenses, particularly those meant for Europe, on the grounds that they provoke Russia.

[PHOTO: Missile Defense Agency]

Facebook, Google Go Persian, Aiding Iran’s Activists

Noah Shachtman — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 14:26:24 +0000

Some of the Web’s leading firms are rolling out new features, to accommodate worldwide interest in the protests in Iran — and to not-so-subtly help out the pro-democracy movement inside the country.

Iran’s activists have been relying on blogs, Tweets, text messages, Facebook groups, and uploaded YouTube videos to share information with one another, and with the outside world. Late Thursday night, both Facebook and Google’s translation service added Persian language support, which should make it even easier for the Iranian opposition and its growing global network of supporters to connect.

“We feel that launching Persian is particularly important now, given ongoing events in Iran. Like YouTube and other services, Google Translate is one more tool that Persian speakers can use to communicate directly to the world, and vice versa — increasing everyone’s access to information,” Google principal scientist Franz Och noted in a Thursday night blog post.

Almost immediately, supporters of Iranian opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi used the new feature to begin translating his official site into English.

In the past few days, Google’s YouTube video-sharing site recently changed its policy on violent footage, to allow videos from Iran’s protests to stay posted to the site. Twitter rescheduled maintenance, to accommodate Iranian activists.

Facebook — which was blocked in Iran, during the run-up to last week’s disputed election — also unveiled a Persian service. “Since the Iranian election last week, people around the world have increasingly been sharing news and information on Facebook about the results and its aftermath. Much of the content created and shared has been in Persian—the native language of Iran—but people have had to navigate the site in English or other languages,” writes Facebook engineer Eric Kwan. “Today we’re making the entire site available in a beta version of Persian, so Persian speakers inside of Iran and around the world can begin using it in their native language.”

[Assist: The Lede]

ALSO:

Stealth Jet Revolt Could Mean Pentagon Budget Showdown (Updated)

Noah Shachtman — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 12:42:52 +0000

Washington has been expecting a showdown between the defense secretary and Congress over his plan to radically overhaul the Pentagon’s arsenal. That fight may finally go down, after a key House panel defied Robert Gates Wednesday by adding money to keep making stealth fighter planes — with an apparent assist from a top Air Force general.

Two-and-a-half months ago, Defense Secretary Gates proposed the most sweeping Pentagon overhaul in nearly 20 years. The plan eliminated funding or scaled back resources for all sorts of high-priced, high-tech, big-war weapons projects that had been previously untouchable, things like advanced jets, missile interceptors and next-gen tanks. Instead, Gates called for funding more troops and more drones, weapons more suitable for today’s fights in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Yet, for nearly 75 days, opposition to the plan — from Congress, from the armed services, from the defense industry — has been token, at best. No major Democratic defections on the Hill, despite the potential loss of manufacturing jobs in their districts. No big advertising pushes from the arms-makers, despite the obvious threat to their cash cows. None of the traditional back-channel efforts by the generals to keep their pet programs. Just a few neocon op-eds, and some grumbling from congressional Republicans.

Yesterday, however, things changed. Republicans managed to peel off just enough Democrats on the House Armed Services Committee to add $369 million to keep up production of the Air Force’s prized F-22 Raptor stealth jet. That means 12 more fighters built next year — 12 fighters Gates has made clear he doesn’t want or need. If the Raptor increase is approved by the other relevant congressional committees, that could open up the flood gates of opposition, with other ad hoc coalitions forming to keep funds for the Airborne Laser missile-zapping boondoggle, or the Navy’s massive (and massively overbudget) DDG-1000 destroyer. “[The Pentagon] needs to learn who’s in charge, and the Congress is,” House Armed Services Committee Democrat Neil Abercrombie told the Christian Science Monitor.

So now the questions are: Will the extra money stick? What does this mean for the secretary’s other cuts, to things like missile defense and hulking battleships? And would the president consider a veto, if Congress doesn’t go along with Gates’ plan?

The defense secretary is speaking with key congressional leaders, letting them know which changes are potential red lines for him, and which ones he just might accept. More Raptors is an absolute deal-breaker for him. Gates has said over and over again that 187 of the dogfighters is just plenty. Especially since the Raptors, originally commissioned to duel with Soviet MiGs, have never been used in Iraq or Afghanistan. “Everybody knows where the secretary and the president stand on the F-22,” Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said, in an unusually terse statement. In other words: Obama has Gates’ back on this. There might even be a veto, congressmen, if you push too far.

Judging from past public statements, I’d say the same goes for trying to piece together the Army’s “Future Combat Systems” family of armored vehicles (”an expensive disaster,” Gates all but called it); for trying to restore money to programs like the Airborne Laser (”significant affordability and technology problems and the program’s proposed operational role is highly questionable“); or for resurrecting the disastrous VH-71 helicopter program (”a poster child for an acquisition process gone seriously wrong“). But I’d wager Gates does have some flexibility over the number of missile interceptors he’s willing to take; he recently said the choice to buy only 30 of the ground-based, mid-course interceptors was “not a forever decision.”

Meanwhile, the tussle over the Raptors continues. Utah Republican Rep. Rob Bishop believes that 187 jets is “frighteningly low,” because of the threat that Russia and China may one day build fighters than can compete with the Mach 2 Raptors. Retired Air Force officials, who still maintain their ties to Congress, agree. Yesterday’s vote was “absolutely the right thing to do,” one former senior military officer told Danger Room. “The number 187 has no [military] analysis as a basis.”

In a letter to Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Georgia), four-star Gen. John Corley, the current chief of Air Combat Command, wrote, “In my opinion, a fleet of 187 F-22s puts execution of our current national military strategy at high risk in the near to mid term… To my knowledge, there are no studies that demonstrate that 187 F-22s are adequate to support our national military strategy.”

Air Force Secretary Michael Donnelly and Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz have already walked back Corley’s note. “We assessed the F-22 by taking into account competing strategic priorities and complementary programs within the context of available resources. After carefully considering a full range of views and alternatives, including those expressed by Gen. Corley, we recommended to Secretary Gates that other priority Air Force programs should not be reduced in order to fund additional F-22s beyond the program of record,” the pair said in a statement.

But opponents of the president are girding up for a new fight. “Resistance to the Obama administration’s massive defense cuts is more substantial than what might have been apparent at first glance,” writes Michael Goldfarb over at the Weekly Standard.

UPDATE: At a press conference Thursday, Gates was asked for his reaction to the House vote. His answer: “I have a big problem with it.”

Q: Why?

SEC. GATES: Well, because it continues the F-22 program, which is contrary to the recommendations I made to the president and that the president sent to the Congress in his budget. That’s why it’s a problem.

Q: Is it veto material?

SEC. GATES: I’m not going to go that far at this point. I think describing it as a big problem suggests where I am on it.

[Photo: DoD]

ALSO:

The Ghost of Howard Baskerville

Michael J. Totten — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 03:58:21 +0000

Howard Baskerville was an American from Nebraska who died fighting with the Constitutionalists against Iran’s despotic King Mohammad Ali Shah in the Azeri-Iranian city of Tabriz in 1909. He was only 24 years old when he was shot through the heart and buried there. You might not have heard of him, but many Iranian nationalists consider the man a hero even now.

Howard Baskerville

For the next nine days, Howard Baskerville’s ghost will be filling in for me on this blog.

Let me explain: Nine months ago I planned a short nine-day vacation — my first in almost four years — with some friends. Most of it has been paid for already. I would not have chosen such an electrifying time in history to drop off the face of the world had I known what was going to happen. (In case you just woke up from a week-long nap, there is an uprising in Iran that may change the country forever.) And I certainly don’t want to leave this Web site without fresh material on it for much of the remainder of June.

So please welcome “Howard Baskerville” who will keep you apprised of events while I am away. He’s a friend who needs to write under a pen name right now, he knows more about Iran than I do, so I think you should trust him.

And don’t forget to be nice in the comments.

CSI Somalia: Interpol Targets Pirates

David Axe — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 20:02:17 +0000

The war on Somali pirates has moved to the bargaining table,to the crime labs, and to Somalia’s white beaches. With the beginning of East Africa’s stormy monsoon season, hijackings at sea are down, giving the coalition of pirate-fighting nations a chance to counter-attack. Their weapons: fingerprints, grassroots anti-piracy leagues… and 500 Somali men, in shorts and t-shirts.

The U.S. Navy, NATO and the other military forces patrolling East African waters, say it’s not hard to fight pirates, once you identify them. But Somali sea bandits blend in with innocent fishermen and toss their weapons over-board when they’re caught, so that nobody can prove they were up to no good. Piracy is a “complex legal issue linked to national law, international law and the law of the high seas,” NATO General Karl-Heinz Lather said, in May. Without good evidence, NATO has been releasing captured pirate suspects on the nearest Somali beach.

Interpol, the international police force, is hoping to change that, by collecting fingerprints of pirate suspects. “Without systematically collecting photographs, fingerprints and DNA profiles of arrested pirates and comparing them internationally, it is simply not possible to establish their true identity or to make connections that would otherwise be missed,” Interpol executive director Jean-Michel Louboutin said yesterday.

Meanwhile, on land in Somalia, the U.S.- and U.N.-backed “transitional government” has recruited 500 men to fill the ranks of an anti-piracy force. The men began training last week, in their “simple uniforms of shorts and white T-shirts.” The force is riding a rising wave of popular opposition to pirates, whose crimes have disrupted international efforts to stabilize Somalia. Some reports have pirate bosses pleading for leniency from incensed imams and elders.

[PHOTO: The Somaliland navy, via American Chronicle]

NATO Targeting Russia in Baltic War Game?

David Axe — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 16:27:21 +0000

There’s a massive, U.S. Navy-led exercise taking place on the Baltic, this week, involving 11 European nations plus the U.S. — but, notably, not Russia. Despite participating in previous incarnations of the annual BALTOPS war game, Moscow is sitting out, this year. And depending on who you ask, Russia is even the target of the 12-day training event, which is hosted by Sweden and includes Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Lithuania. “Another provocation against Russia,” one Russian tabloid calls BALTOPS 2009.

U.S. Navy Rear Adm. John Christenson is circumspect. “There are a lot of powerful nations here,” Christenson said, by phone, from the command shop Mount Whitney. “Sweden… has a history of war with Russia. And if you trace history back, different flags have flown over these countries,” he added, apparent veiled referring to the participation of three former Soviet republics. “It’s not our job to decide who is a threat. It’s our job to be ready to face a [military] capability. And there are significant capabilities here.”

Christenson’s rhetorical equivocating reflects the fine line the Obama administration is walking, with regards to Russia, as I explain in my latest column for World Politics Review. Washington needs Russia, to help contain North Korean and Iranian nukes, and to keep supplies flowing into Afghanistan. But some NATO nations are wary of the alliance’s most powerful member, cozying up to the Bear.

Planning for BALTOPS 2009 kicked off, last year, just weeks after Russia’s war with NATO partner Georgia, so Moscow’s absence is perhaps understandable. After all, the U.S. and NATO briefly froze military relations with Russia in the wake of the Georgia war. Next year’s BALTOPS will be telling: Russia’s presence, or absence, will say a lot about the direction that Russian-NATO relations are taking. U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis, the incoming NATO Supreme Commander, said he wants closer ties with Moscow. But Estonia warned that thawing relations with Russia, shouldn’t come at the price of NATO solidarity.

[PHOTO: U.S. Navy]

Iran Activists Get Assist from ‘Anonymous,’ Pirate Bay

Noah Shachtman — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:25:13 +0000

Iranian democracy activists, meet your new pals: a masked protest movement best known for needling the Church of Scientology, and a group of file-sharers so infamous they’re facing a year in jail.

Anonymous Iran is a collaboration between The Pirate Bay — operators of the world’s largest torrent site, convicted in April of copyright infringement — and Anonymous, the prankster collective dedicated to exposing “Scientology’s crimes.”

The new site offers tips on how to navigate online in private, upload files through the Iranian firewall, find the best activist Tweeters, and launch attacks on pro-government websites.

This week, The Pirate Bay launched its virtual private network service that promises to mask users’ indentities online. More than 180,000 people have already signed up. Earlier this month, Sweeden’s Pirate Party won a seat in the European Union Parliament, after outrage about the file-sharers conviction erupted.

[Active: Linkfilter; Photo: Jim Merithew/Wired.com]
ALSO:

Five for Fighting (Tehran Edition)

Noah Shachtman — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:47:14 +0000

* Huge rallies expected in “Day of Mourning“

* “The numbers are very high“

* Iran signals new turn in U.S. democracy-promotion?

* YouTube changes policies to allow protest vids

* “Tear down this firewall!“

Pentagon Blinds Astronomers to ‘Armageddon’

Nathan Hodge — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:29:35 +0000

Chances are, you’ve see one of those movies where a planet-busting asteroid is hurtling toward Earth. Well, thanks to the U.S. Department of Defense, our top scientific minds can no longer check out data from classified satellites on incoming meteors.

Nature’s Geoff Brumfiel has an excellent story on how the Pentagon apparently ended an informal arrangement with astronomers that gave the scientists access to data from the Defense Support Program satellite network, part of the Pentagon’s early-warning system. Those satellites (pictured here) can detect missile launches or atmospheric nuclear blasts, but they are also great for spotting meteors as they flame out in the Earth’s atmosphere.

According to Brumfiel, the military provided some data to astronomers, often through “anonymous, tersely worded e-mail[s] describing the coordinates, altitude and size of a fireball.” While the information was succinct, it was of great help to researchers.

Brumfiel was not able confirm why this ad hoc arrangement ended, although one of his sources notes that the change coincided with the super-duper, super-expensive Space-Based Infrared System entering operational service.

Message to the Pentagon: How can you save the planet if you don’t share information with Billy Bob Thornton?

[PHOTO: Wikimedia]

See Also:

Iran: Before You Have That Twitter-Gasm….

Nicholas Thompson — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 22:49:28 +0000

Before we all have a collective Twitter-gasm about the short-messaging service’s use in Iran, let’s breathe for a second. Yes, it’s useful; yes, it’s great for following the events here in the U.S.; yes, it might one day be a driving tool for revolution. But it’s an overstatement to call it “the medium of the movement,” as Time did.

We have no idea how many Tweets are spreading through RSS, Facebook pages, and text-messages. Nor do we know how info gets into every Twitter feed. But there’s evidence that the reach of some of the most prominent Iranian “Green Revolution” Tweeters may not be as great as it first appears. For example, many of the Iranian tweeters described in the Western press seem to have between 10,000 and 30,000 followers. That’s a lot; but Ashton Kutcher it ain’t. And many of those followers are in the U.S. Check out @Change_for_Iran, @persiankiwi, @StopAhmadi, @persiankiwi, or @mousavi1388 and you’ll see a lot of American names. At least in the first few pages, it seems to be about a third who are clearly in the U.S.

English-language tweeters of course have English-language followers. But Twitter isn’t set up to make Farsi use easy (for example, you can’t search for Farsi posts in the language section of Twitter’s advanced search feature). In fact, the always helpful Nancy Scola has done a search on Twitter of all users who have listed their location as within 250 miles of Tehran. One interesting result: there are posts there only in Spanish, German, and English.

This afternoon, I emailed UCSD professor Babak Rahimi, the author of “Internet & Politics in Post-revolutionary Iran” and someone who is in Tehran right now covering the events. I asked what he thought of my hunch that we in the Western press are over-hyping the impact of Twitter. Here’s what he said:

“I very much agree with you. The Twitter factor is present, but not as significant as, say, cell phone or social networking sites… [granted, it's hard to separate these out -- nms] I just wonder (or worry) how the U.S. media is projecting its own image of Iran into what is going here on the ground.”

ALSO:

Strategist: Killer Drones Level Extremists’ Advantage

David Axe — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 19:51:53 +0000

A U.S. Predator strike in Pakistan’s tribal region on Sunday reportedly killed five people. It was the latest in an ongoing killer-drone campaign that Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called “very effective” at taking apart extremist organizations.

But aid groups, think tanks and the Pakistani and Afghan governments — not to mention angry mobs of everyday people — have objected to the strikes. Drones and other aircraft often inadvertently kill innocent civilians, along with the extremist fighters. Gareth Porter notes that no one outside of the Obama administration even knows, for sure, how many people have died in drone attacks; according to one disputed Pakistani account, the number could be as high as 687. Even Mullen acknowledged that unmanned strikes “have to be done in a way that moves the strategy forward and doesn’t back us up.”

One prominent strategist is less equivocating. “There’s no question that: 1) drones are here to stay, and 2) they’re truly re-symmetricizing the battlefield in a much-needed manner,” Thomas Barnett, author of several influential books on U.S. strategy, wrote in his latest World Politics Review column.

The Pentagon considers lightly armed, but elusive, extremist fighters, an “asymmetric” threat — one that can’t be easily countered with conventional weapons. But drones level the extremists’ advantage, by being equally sneaky, Barnett writes. “The increased use of unmanned vehicles — be they in the air, on land or at sea — represent our military finally adjusting its force structure (the mix of platforms) to the strategic environment.”

UPDATE: Noah here. The Air Force is also working on plans for drones that will be more judicious in how they deal out death, Erik Sofge writes in today’s edition of Esquire.com. And for more on how today’s killer robots are being employed, check out this interview I did this other day with PJTV.

[PHOTO: Air Force]

Don’t Forget

Michael J. Totten — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 18:13:03 +0000

I’m posting a huge amount of material on Iran at Commentary’s Contentions blog. I’ll be posting there through tomorrow. Just click here and keep scrolling.

See also Why We Should Support the Green Revolution by David Hazony.

Danger, Sky News!

Noah Shachtman — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 16:33:15 +0000

I’ll be on the UK’s Sky News around 6pm GMT. talking about Iran’s information war.

Tehran Threatens Bloggers, ‘Deviant News Sites’

Noah Shachtman — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 15:28:36 +0000

Iran’s fearsome Revolutionary Guard is warning bloggers and local websites to remove any materials that “create tension” — or else. It part of a larger crackdown on media of all types, as the Tehran regime attempts to control the information battle surrounding the pro-democracy “Green Revolution” there.

Revolutionary Guard investigators have already “taken action against ‘deviant news sites’ that encouraged public disturbances,” according to a statement released through official outlets, and translated by the Associated Press.

The statement alleged that dissident Web sites were backed by Canadian, U.S. and British interests, a frequent charge levied by hard-liners against the opposition.

“Legal action will be very strong and call on them to remove such materials,” it said.

The Guard its an elite, independent military unit that answers directly to Tehran’s ruling clerics. One of its former officers is Iran’s current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Others are in key positions throughout Iranian government and industry. A 2007 Washington Post story profiled the group’s power:

Its naval forces abducted 15 British sailors and marines nine days ago. Its special forces unit is operating deep in Iraq, providing militias with deadly roadside explosives used against American troops, U.S. officials say. It supplied missiles used by Hezbollah last summer in the longest war Arabs ever fought with Israel. And it now plays the largest role in Iran’s ambitious military industries, including attempted acquisition of nuclear weapons and surface-to-surface missiles.

But the Guard isn’t the only group trying to clamp down on the information flow inside and out of Iran.

Executives at the BBC say their World World News and Persian TV channels are now being jammed by “ground-based interference.” It’s almost like “electronic warfare,” one insider tells the Guardian.

“Iranian authorities also blocked access to Yahoo Messenger early today as the country intensified its crackdown on all means of communication following Friday’s controversial presidential poll,” the UK paper reports. So have “at least 20 websites affiliated to the defeated reformist candidate, Mir Hussein Mousavi.”

“Before this we could bypass filtering by using proxy websites, the links for which were distributed daily among friends by email. But now the Iranian communication ministry has also begun to tackle proxy websites too,” one Iranian student said.

In response, the Electronic Frontier Foundation is asking the State Department and the Voice of America to become more actively involved in the information conflict. The group wants the U.S. to provide tools and expertise to the Iranian opposition, so it can hopscotch over the government’s filters. The State Department already asked Twitter to reschedule maintenance downtime, in order to keep the service up for Iran’s activists. Twitter has become a primary outlet for pro-democracy supporters to communicate with the outside world.

Regime-friendly may also be using the service to spread information. “The user @serv_ is aggressively spreading false information, including fabricated ‘re-tweets’ supposedly written by good sources, seemingly trying to discredit them,” according to the Huffington Post’s Nico Pitney.

Despite the government’s best efforts, however, opposition forces are staging yet another huge rally in Tehran today. Here’s a picture of huge throng, just uploaded to Twitter.

[Photo: via LongWarJournal.org]

ALSO:

How to Uncensor in Iran and China

Ms. Missive — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:44:57 +0000

Web censorship has once again become a huge issue, due to two unrelated events: China’s Internet blockade due to the anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre, and more recently, the controversial Iran elections which have resulted in new oppressive measures, implemented by the current country leaders, to shut down free speech in the country.

Writing about the Great Firewall of China, I’ve concluded that no matter what measures the governments put in place to block freedom of speech, people will always find a way to communicate. I’m even more sure of that now, because I see an emerging trend, driven by social media, to use, create, and educate about various tools that people can use to circumvent censorship and remain anonymous while browsing the web.

Besides the already existent tools such as anonymizers, various proxies, and Tor, which are now gaining prominence, I’ve seen a number of almost simultaneous similar initiatives. The idea to turn Opera Unite into a web proxy for Iran is one such idea, which will undoubtedly (save possible technical limitations) quickly be turned into reality. There’s also the recently launched beta of Ipredator, The Pirate Bay’s stab at creating a secure VPN for everyone.

Initiatives such as these assure me, more than ever, that it will never be possible to entirely censor the Internet. A critical mass of users that employ techniques such as encryption and anonymization will arise, and it will become tougher and more expensive for anyone to control and monitor the information flow. It’s up to every one of us to join and use the tools we have at our disposal; once these tools become commonplace, the battle to set the Internet free will be won.

[Source: Mashable!]

Party Like it’s 1979

Michael J. Totten — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 08:43:56 +0000

Kevin Sullivan at RealClearPolitics and I were interviewed about developments in Iran on the Rick Moran show last night. You can listen to the podcast here.

The Iranian Revolution

Michael J. Totten — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 17:08:09 +0000

I’m posting a huge amount of material on the Iranian revolution (and yes, it’s a revolution now) over at Commentary. I’ll be posting there for the next couple of days so I can get paid without having to ask for donations from readers here. So please don’t neglect to follow me there.

Blogging at Commentary

Michael J. Totten — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 20:52:54 +0000

Commentary asked me to cover the upheaval in Iran on the Contentions blog during the next couple of days, and you can click here to read what I'm publishing. I know it's slightly less convenient for you read my work over there, but this means I don't have to rattle my tip jar over here.

I'm mostly finished with my next dispatch from Iraq, but I'm finding it difficult to concentrate on it right now. It's a bit “off topic” anyway, so I'm thinking of holding onto it for a bit. Maybe Iran will settle down soon.

In the meantime, you can click this link and read only my blog posts at Commentary, or you can click this link and read everyone's blog posts at Commentary.

An Enemy of the World

Michael J. Totten — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 15:44:29 +0000

The Islamic Republic regime in Iran is vividly revealing itself as an enemy of the entire world.

“Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei’s police and the Basij militia are using violence and terror to suppress the Iranian people at home. His terrorist proxies fire missiles at Israel while torturing, maiming, and murdering Palestinians. He sponsored a violent coup d’etat against the elected government in Beirut last year with his Hezbollah militia. He sponsors a terrorist insurgency against the elected government of Iraq, while his fanatical proxies shoot and kill American soldiers. A car bomb cell belonging to the regime’s Lebanese franchise was recently arrested in Azerbaijan, and more cells were rolled up in Egypt. Terrorists sponsored and encouraged by him and his predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini, have murdered civilians from Argentina to Japan.

The regime’s only allies in the world are terrorist armies and Bashar Assad’s Baath Party state in Syria. Assad himself, like Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, is a pariah among the Arabs, Persians, Turks, Kurds, Azeris, and Israelis who make up the region.

Iranian civilians risk violent beatings and worse by the thousands for standing up to the regime in the streets and treating it as the enemy it clearly is. There is no better time for the rest of us to do so, as well, especially since such gestures carry far less risk for us. The Pasdaran have no divisions in Washington, Paris, or London.

Obama Administration officials still hope they can talk Khamenei out of developing nuclear weapons and supporting Hamas and Hezbollah. This is delusion on stilts. Khamenei can’t even compromise with his own regime or his hand-picked presidential candidates. He placed them under house arrest, along with a Grand Ayatollah, and deployed thousands of violent enforcers into the streets. Not only does he confront the world, he is at war with his very own country.

Understand the mind of a totalitarian. “Probe with a bayonet,” Vladimir Lenin famously said. “If you meet steel, stop. If you meet mush, then push.”

The Khomeinists in Iran likewise only stop when they meet steel. In his book The Persian Night: Iran under the Khomeinist Revolution
, Amir Taheri describes how since 1979 the regime has always continued to push until, as he put it, it hits something hard. It’s hitting something hard right now within its borders. This is no time for mush from everyone else. The regime today is weaker than it has ever been. If the insurrection continues, a fast hard shove might well push it over. If the regime survives, it may well feel invincible.

Read the rest in Commentary Magazine.

Insurrection: Day 2

Michael J. Totten — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 20:58:00 +0000

The great Polish journalist Ryszard Kapuscinski witnessed and wrote about dozens of revolutions in the course of his life. He has, perhaps, seen more revolutions than anyone in the history of the world. He knew, while he lived, revolutions better than anyone.

In his book Shah of Shahs, about the Iranian revolution in 1979, he describes the beginning of the end for the Shah Reza Pahlavi.

Now the most important moment, the moment that will determine the fate of the country, the Shah, and the revolution, is the moment when one policeman walks from his post toward one man on the edge of the crowd, raises his voice, and orders the man to go home. The policeman and the man on the edge of the crowd are ordinary, anonymous people, but their meeting has historic significance.

They are both adults, they have both lived through certain events, they have both their individual experiences.

The policeman’s experience: If I shout at someone and raise my truncheon, he will first go numb with terror and then take to his heels. The experience of the man at the edge of the crowd: At the sight of an approaching policeman I am seized by fear and start running. On the basis of these experiences we can elaborate a scenario: The policeman shouts, the man runs, others take flight, the square empties.

But this time everything turns out differently. The policeman shouts, but the man doesn’t run. He just stands there, looking at the policeman. It’s a cautious look, still tinged with fear, but at the same time tough and insolent. So that’s the way it is! The man on the edge of the crowd is looking insolently at uniformed authority. He doesn’t budge. He glances around and sees and sees the same look on other faces. Like his, their faces are watchful, still a bit fearful, but already firm and unrelenting. Nobody runs though the policeman has gone on shouting; at last he stops. There is a moment of silence.

We don’t know whether the policeman and the man on the edge of the crowd already realize what has happened. The man has stopped being afraid – and this is precisely the beginning of the revolution. Here it starts. Until now, whenever these two men approached each other, a third figure instantly intervened between them. That third figure was fear. Fear was the policeman’s ally and the man in the crowd’s foe. Fear interposed its rules and decided everything.

Now the two men find themselves alone, facing each other, and fear has disappeared into thin air. Until now their relationship was charged with emotion, a mixture of aggression, scorn, rage, terror. But now that fear has retreated, this perverse, hateful union has suddnely broken up; something has been extinguished. The two men have now grown mutually indifferent, useless to each other; they can now go their own ways.

Accordingly, the policeman turns around and begins to walk heavily back toward his post, while the man on the edge of the crowd stands there looking at his vanishing enemy.

Now take a look at this video uploaded from the city of Isfahan. A ferocious-looking unit of armed riot police officers is shown running away in terror from civilian demonstrators.

Reza Shoja reports for The Media Line.

Car horn protests could be heard throughout the city, as could chants of “Bye bye dictator”, “Ahmadi Nejad is the biggest liar in Iran,” and “The president is committing a crime and the supreme leader is supporting him”.

Listen to the chants on Tehran's rooftops in the middle of the night.

Roger Cohen in the New York Times:

I’ve argued for engagement with Iran and I still believe in it, although, in the name of the millions defrauded, President Obama’s outreach must now await a decent interval.
I’ve also argued that, although repressive, the Islamic Republic offers significant margins of freedom by regional standards. I erred in underestimating the brutality and cynicism of a regime that understands the uses of ruthlessness.

Defrauded opposition candidate Mir Hussein Mousavi belongs to the establishment. The regime is coming apart and turning on itself. Even clerics are turning against the “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei.

Grand Ayatollah Sanei in Iran has declared Ahmadinejad's presidency illegitimate and cooperating with his government against Islam. There are strong rumors that his house and office are surrounded by the police and his website is filtered. He had previously issued a fatwa, against rigging of the elections in any form or shape, calling it a mortal sin.

Kevin Sullivan at RealClearWorld:

What's emerging here could be interesting. Iran hawks prefer to label the Iranian police state as simply “The Mullahs,” but the legitimate clerics in this dispute are the ones standing with Mir-Hossein Mousavi against ONE Mullah and his secular police apparatus. If the election has been rigged in such a fashion, then what you are in fact seeing is the dropping of religious pretense in the “Islamic” Republic of Iran. This is a secular police state in action.

Iranian poet Sheema Kalbasi agrees with Sullivan's analysis:

Today is the day that the Islamic Republic officially transformed from a theocracy supported by Pasdaran to a Junta supported by a handful of clerics.

Meanwhile, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is sounding like Baghdad Bob again today.

The situation in the country is in a very good condition. Iran is the most stable country in the world, and there’s the rule of law in this country, and all the people are equal before the law.

According to a Twitter post from inside Iran, the army announced it will not use force against Iranians, only foreigners. The army is made up of conscripts. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij Militia, though, are separate armed forces loyal to the regime.

I don’t like relying on Twitter feeds. Rumors are bound to get posted this way. But things are moving so fast. You can follow Twitter feeds yourself here here and here. (Thanks to David Hazony at Commentary for the pointer.)

David also points to a YouTube channel where dozens of videos have been uploaded.

A reader comments at niacINsight:

“I am in Tehran. Its 3:40 in the morning. I’ve connected with you [by hacking past the government filter]. It’s a big mess here. People are yelling from their houses – ‘death to the dictator.’ They are setting up a military government. No one dares to go out. No one has seen Mousavi today. Rumor has it that they have arrested him. I don’t have an email but I will contact you again.

Help us.”

This isn’t encouraging:

According to our private phone conversations with people in Tehran, hundreds of parents have gathered by a police station in Yousef Abad, now known as Seyyed Jamal Aldin Asad Abadi, with their hands raised to the sky saying “Obama, please help us, they are killing our young children.”

The United States will not help. Senator Joe Lieberman, though, at least thinks we should say something.

[T]hrough intimidation, violence, manipulation, and outright fraud, the Iranian regime has once again made a mockery of democracy, and confirmed its repressive and dictatorial character.

We as Americans have a responsibility to stand in solidarity with people when they are denied their rights by repressive regimes. When elections are stolen, our government should protest. When peaceful demonstrators are beaten and silenced, we have a duty to raise our voices on their behalf. We must tell the Iranian people that we are on their side.

For this reason, I would hope that President Obama and members of both parties in Congress will speak out, loudly and clearly, about what is happening in Iran right now, and unambiguously express their solidarity with the brave Iranians who went to the polls in the hope of change and who are now looking to the outside world for strength and support.

Policemen aren’t massacring civilians in the streets. At least not yet. The police are restrained. Who can say if their hearts even warm to policing right now? Take a look at the video below. Riot police officers ride into a crowd on motorcycles. The demonstrators set one of the bikes on fire, then help a wounded policeman to safety.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some defections in the ranks of the police. But what about Hezbollah, the Revolutionary Guard, and the Basij Militia? It will take something extraordinary to get them to back down.

Ardeshir Arian:

There are widespread reports of police and security forces, around Tehran and other big cities where there have been demonstrations, who are not Iranian and either speak Persian with a very pronounced Arab accent or speak no Persian at all.

I've read reports for a couple of years now that the regime hires Arabs as mercenaries from outside the country because it can't even pay enough Iranians willing to suppress their countrymen.

Arian adds:

Reports are circulating that Venezuela has sent anti-riot troops to Tehran to help Ahmadinejad, joining Hezbollah members from Palestine and Lebanon who are employed by the Islamic government as anti-riot police — the reason such forces are being brought in is that some of the Iranian police are unwilling to hit people as ordered and some are even joining the protesters.

Maybe. It's hard to separate fact from rumor right now.

The regime may well yet survive, at least for a while. I wouldn’t bet against it just yet.

Barry Rubin nails the bottom line if it does:

The only logical explanation for why the regime did this is that Ahmadinejad's opponents got so many votes that it frightened the regime. It also shows that the regime is wedded to Ahmadinejad and his approach.

Is a regime that just committed itself irrevocably to the most extreme faction, most radical ideology, and most repressive control over the country going to compromise with the West on nuclear weapons or anything else?

Of course not, like Gamal Abdel Nasser in the 1960s, Syria's rulers in the 1970s, and Iraq's Saddam Hussein in the 1980s (and many examples elsewhere in the world) it is going to use foreign adventurism and mobilizing hatred against the West and Israel to consolidate its hold on the country.

And finally, see my own piece just published in Commentary Magazine about the Islamic Republic regime in Iran: An Enemy of the World.

Over the next couple of days I'll be posting regular updates and analysis at the Commentary Magazine blog.

Stay tuned for another long dispatch from Iraq after the weekend. And if anyone feels like hitting my tip jar today, I promise not to get mad.

Iran on Fire (Continuously updated)

Michael J. Totten — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 18:11:16 +0000

The BBC says clashes between demonstrators and police in Tehran are the most violent in a decade.

Video below shows a human wave of demonstrators chasing frightened police officers.

Here is another video. These protests are huge.

Below are thousands of Iranians chanting not “Death to America” or “Death to Israel,” but “Death to the Government.”

Oppressive governments that face ferocious resistance in the streets often don’t last very long. The Islamic Republic regime has been durable so far, and reports of its imminent demise have been premature, but there is only so much it can withstand.

A reader writes to Andrew Sullivan, who is doing an excellent job covering Iran this weekend.

Why did the clergy panic? Because they saw something much larger than just Mousavi being elected. They saw the beginnings of a wave that would sweep them out of power. This started with Khatami. and it won’t stop today just because they declared a fraudulent winner. Mousavi would have been the crowbar with which to pry open the tangled nest of corruption that came into power soon after the 1979 revolution. There is enough pent-up anger in Iran’s youth to fuel a complete wipeout of the regime. If the thugs were so utterly ham-fisted in their attempt to usurp power, they surely will commit scores of idiotic errors in the days to come. I cannot imagine Rafsanjani staying quiet for much longer; the theocracy is about to break wide open. Resistance will take many forms, and now will not stop until the mullahs are permanently out of power. Iran is headed for civil war.

Tehran almost looks like a war zone already. A heaving volcano, indeed.

Hundreds of insurrection photos are uploaded right here on Twitter.

Haaretz is now reporting that Mousavi has been arrested. Yesterday’s report turned out to be false, but maybe this one is accurate. Who knows? We’re in the fog of “war” here.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sounds like Baghdad Bob right about now: “It was a free and healthy election,” he said.

“Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei, the real power in Iran, sounds even more like Baghdad Bob than Ahmadinejad. He said the “election” was “an artistic expression” of “the joy and excitement of a nation.” Good grief.

From the Huffington Post:

“My next door neighbor is an Iranian immigrant who came here in 1977. He just received a SAT phone call from his brother in Tehran who reports that the rooftops of nighttime Tehran are filled with people shouting ‘Allah O Akbar’ in protest of the government and election results. The last time he remembers this happening is in 1979 during the Revolution. Says the sound of tens of thousands on the rooftops is deafening right now.” It’s almost four in the morning in Iran.

Andrew Sullivan writes: “The last time a news event gave me chills like this was the Soviet coup. It ended the regime.” Yes, it did.

You know what this reminds me of? The convulsion that shook Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province, Iraq.

Here’s an excerpt from a dispatch I filed from there a few years ago:

“Jassim was pissed off because American artillery fire was landing in his area,” Colonel Holmes said. “But he wasn’t pissed off at us. He was pissed off at Al Qaeda because he knew they always shot first and we were just shooting back.”

“He said he would prevent Al Qaeda from firing mortars from his area if we would help him,” Lieutenant Hightower said. “Al Qaeda said they would mess him up if he got in their way. He called their bluff and they seriously fucked him up. They launched a massive attack on his area. All hell broke loose. They set houses on fire. They dragged people through the streets behind pickup trucks. A kid from his area went into town and Al Qaeda kidnapped him, tortured him, and delivered his head to the outpost in a box. The dead kid was only sixteen years old. The Iraqis then sent out even nine year old kids to act as neighborhood watchmen. They painted their faces and everything.”

“Sheikh Jassim came to us after that,” Colonel Holmes told me, “and said I need your help.”

“One night,” Lieutenant Markham said, “after several young people were beheaded by Al Qaeda, the mosques in the city went crazy. The imams screamed jihad from the loudspeakers. We went to the roof of the outpost and braced for a major assault. Our interpreter joined us. Hold on, he said. They aren’t screaming jihad against us. They are screaming jihad against the insurgents.”

By the way, everyone should order and read The Persian Night: Iran under the Khomeinist Revolution by Amir Taheri immediately. I’m just about finished reading it now, and it is absolutely electrifying.

And finally, see my own piece just published in Commentary Magazine about the Islamic Republic regime in Iran: An Enemy of the World.

Over the next couple of days I’ll be posting regular updates and analysis at the Commentary Magazine blog.

Stay tuned for another long dispatch from Iraq after the weekend. And if anyone feels like hitting my tip jar today, I promise not to get mad.

A Heaving Volcano*

Michael J. Totten — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 05:47:30 +0000

Iran’s presidential election isn’t real. The four candidates were hand-picked by the “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei. It’s turning into something more than he bargained for, though, even if his regime is rigging the outcome for Mahmoud Admadinejad.

Take a look at Martin Fletcher’s piece in the Times of London.

Whatever the reason, Mr Mousavi’s campaign took off. The youth of Tehran and other cities took to the streets in huge numbers. They flocked to Mousavi rallies in their tens of thousands. They turned the capital into a seething sea of green with their ribbons, headscarves, balloons and bandanas. They festooned the city with posters and banners. Until the small hours of each morning they packed squares, blocked junctions and careered around town in cars with horns blaring and pop music blasting.

The Islamic republic has never seen such sights before. It was almost open rebellion, an explosion of pent-up anger after four years in which the fundamentalist President and his morality police cracked down on dissent, human rights groups, and any dress or behaviour deemed unIslamic. “Death to the dictator,” young men and women roared at Mousavi rallies. “Death to the Government.

[…]

Mr Mousavi is an unlikely champion for such people. He is no reformist. He promises some social and economic liberalisation, and to do away with the hated “morality police”, but he is not challenging the political system. At 68, and distinctly lacking charisma, he is more Bob Dole than Barack Obama. Mousavi-mania is less a reflection of his popularity than of the loathing most educated, urban Iranians feel for a messianic President who has curtailed freedom, embarrassed Iran internationally and squandered record oil revenues through reckless spending.

In 2005 many liberal Iranians refused to vote, partly because they did not want to legitimise a political system that they abhor, and partly because they were profoundly disillusioned at how the conservative establishment had thwarted the reform efforts of their previous champion, President Khatami. But they will turn out in huge numbers today because they cannot contemplate four more years of Mr Ahmadinejad. “Now you and I vote so he will be defeated,” was the text message sent to millions of mobile phones after campaigning ended yesterday.

[…]

It is possible that violence will erupt if Mr Ahmadinejad is declared the victor and Mr Mousavi’s supporters cry foul. It is likely that Mr Mousavi will fail to meet his supporters’ sky-high expectations, partly because the Supreme Leader remains the real power in the land and partly because he is, in truth, a flawed vehicle for their hopes and aspirations.

Only one thing is certain. Iran will never be quite the same again. “We are in a new phase in this country and civilisation,” Saeed Laylaz, a respected political consultant, said as his compatriots prepared to vote.

All this reminds of me a piece I published a few years ago in Reason magazine about exiled Iranian revolutionaries in Iraq called The Next Iranian Revolution. Here are some excerpts:

More encouraging than Komala’s moderation and political evolution is its plausible claim—backed up by most Iranian activists, expatriates, and dissidents—that Iranian society as a whole is far more sensible and mature than it was in 1979, at least at the level below the state, on the street. The aftermath of an Iranian revolution, Mohtadi said, will not resemble the postwar occupation of Iraq with its civil war, insurgency, kidnappings, and car bombs.

“We have an internal opposition,” he said. “We have an internal movement against the regime. Women were warned not to celebrate 8 March, Women’s Day. They did. There are demonstrations in Iran. There are movements in Iran. You have the intellectuals, the political activists, the human rights activists, then the Kurds, Arabs, Azeris, Baluchis, different nationalities. There is a movement in Iran, unlike in Iraq under Saddam Hussein, where you had Kurds and nobody else.” (Iraq’s Shia did rise up against Saddam in 1991, but they had been quiet since Baghdad’s brutal response to that insurrection.) “It’s not like that in Iran.”

[…]

“You can complain about the government,” Mohtadi said. “You can insult them. But America is a red line. Khomeini himself is a red line. The Israelis are a red line, absolutely.” Iranians can’t buck the party line on certain topics, but they are brave enough, or just barely free enough, to protest the government to its face. “When [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad spoke to students,” Mohtadi pointed out, “hundreds of students stood up and called him a fascist and burned his picture.”

[…]

Islamist law is so widely detested and flouted in Iran that it’s a wonder the regime even bothers to keep up the pretense. In June 2005 Christopher Hitchens wrote in Vanity Fair that every person he visited there, with the exception of one single imam, offered him alcohol, which is banned.

Everyone I met at the Komala compound said the Iranian regime itself wallows deep in the post-ideological torpor that inevitably follows radical revolutions. Except for the most fanatic officials, the government cares only about money and power. “Followers of the regime are not ideological anymore,” Sanjari said. “They are bribed by the government. They will no longer support it in the case that it is overthrown. Even among the Iranian military and Revolutionary Guards, there are so many people dissatisfied with the policies of the regime. Fortunately there aren’t religious conflicts between Shias, Sunnis, and different nationalities.”

Mohtadi concurred. “The next revolution and government will be explicitly anti-religious,” he said.

The Iranian writer Reza Zarabi says the regime has all but destroyed religion itself. “The name Iran, which used to be equated with such things as luxury, fine wine, and the arts, has become synonymous with terrorism,” he wrote. “When the Islamic Republic government of Iran finally meets its demise, they will have many symbols and slogans as testaments of their rule, yet the most profound will be their genocide of Islam, the black stain that they have put on this faith for many generations to come.”

The regime is claiming Ahmadinejad won, and there are unconfirmed reports that Mousavi has been arrested.

Interesting times are ahead in Iran.

UPDATE: It turns out that Mousavi wasn’t detained.

UPDATE: Haaretz is now reporting that he has in fact been arrested.

*I stole the title of this post from Amir Taheri’s new book The Persian Night: Iran under the Khomeinist Revolution, which I cannot recommend highly enough.

No Divine Victory for Hezbollah

Michael J. Totten — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 18:52:46 +0000

Lebanese voters went to the polls on Sunday and gave Hezbollah an unexpected shellacking. The anti-Syrian “March 14” coalition led by Saad Hariri’s Future Movement won 71 seats in the parliament. The Hezbollah-led “March 8” bloc won 57. Hezbollah itself only has ten seats in Beirut out of 128.

Most observers and analysts were surprised by the March 14 victory, but I could never figure out where Hezbollah’s additional support was supposedly coming from. Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah strapped a suicide bomb vest around his own country when he picked a fight with Israel in 2006. Mounting an armed assault against the capital, as he did last May, was no way to win the hearts and minds of new voters. Until recently, I was certain Hezbollah and its allies had no chance of winning, but they grew so sure of their own propaganda that they managed to persuade even their enemies that they might come out on top. The March 14 side was rattled, and some of their analysts convinced even me that Hezbollah might pull it off. But Hezbollah lost, and Nasrallah conceded.

Syrian dictator Bashar Assad also lost big when his most powerful proxy in Lebanon was rejected by the majority. “So much for Bashar’s ‘imaginary majority,’” wrote Lebanese political analyst Tony Badran, “in spite of all his terrorism, bombing, murder, violence, intimidation, coup attempts and information warfare over the last four years.”

“Sanity prevailed,” an unnamed Obama Administration official said after the results were made official. Indeed, it did. The press may be getting slightly carried away with crediting President Barack Obama’s Cairo speech for the March 14 victory, but Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Beirut recently and said everything that needed to be said before voters went to the polls. Biden rightly warned the Lebanese that American aid to their government and military would be reevaluated if the Hezbollah-led coalition emerged victorious.

The president himself said the United States will “continue to support a sovereign and independent Lebanon, committed to peace, including the full implementation of all United Nations Security Council Resolutions.” Everyone in Lebanon knows exactly what this means. A “sovereign and independent” Lebanon cannot be a vassal of Syria and Iran. “Committed to peace” is a slap against Hezbollah’s interminable armed “resistance” against Israel. The relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions demand the disarmament of every militia in Lebanon – including Hezbollah and those in the Palestinian refugee camps.

Some leftists are kvetching about Obama’s explicitly anti-Hezbollah position. I was slightly worried myself about other potential aspects of the president’s Lebanon policy before it developed, but he deserves support here from conservatives as well as from Democrats who understand that the United States can’t support a terrorist army that says, “Death to America is a policy, a strategy, and a vision.”

Read the rest in Commentary Magazine.

Hezbollah Concedes Defeat

Michael J. Totten — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 06:36:13 +0000

Hezbollah lost the election in Lebanon, and its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah conceded defeat.

These guys drank their own Kool-Aid recently. They were so certain they were going to win that they even convinced some “March 14″ analysts, who then convinced me. I could never figure out how Hezbollah and its allies supposedly increased their support while starting a war with Israel, attacking Beirut, and lining up with the Syrians and Iranians. And as it turned out, they didn’t.

Blanket provides protection against dirty bombs

Ms. Missive — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 13:00:00 +0000

(Credit: RST)

The first instinct when confronted with a radiological explosive device may be to turn tail and run, but the new Demron-W Nuclear/Ballistic Shield affords the opportunity to stick around and save the day.

The Demron suppression blanket provides total protection against ballistics, improvised explosive devices, dirty bombs, …

Pay the Writer!

Michael J. Totten — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 03:33:18 +0000

Thanks to Max Boot at Commentary for pointing me to this fun rant from a cranky old favorite.

On the road

Michael J. Totten — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 00:31:03 +0000

I'm out of town for a few days and have no time to write and little time even to read. Blogging will therefore be slow. I'll be home in a few days. Thanks for being patient in the meantime.

Live Blogging: Obama’s Big Speech From Cairo

Ms. Missive — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 10:10:56 +0000

Right, so, here I am in Tel Aviv waiting for the epic Obama speach addressing the billions (give or take a billion) of Muslims around the world. Obama said he’d make a major speach from a Muslim capital and he’s come through on that promise. Jihadists eat your heart out:

Watching CNN International, Tel Aviv Israel Time:

1:09 pm @ Cairo University. For some reason I imagined the speech to be outside. But now that I think about it, maybe inside an auditorium will provide a less “explosive” stage.

1:10 Here comes the Queen… er, I mean Hillary Clinton. And Obama enters. People stand. Lots of Thanks You’s.

1:11 General cock stroking from Obama to Egypt. “Asalamalaykum”. The President speaketh Arabic to wild applause.

1:13 “Violent Muslim extremists are a minority in the Arab world…. but these minorites make Americans hate most of you. Also, your human rights policies suck.” My paraphrase.

1:15 “This speech isn’t going to change how much we hate each other”…

1:15 WTF is the “Holy Kore-ahn”? Obama’s correct pronunciation of all things Muslim continues to make Americans nervous.

1:16 “I’m a Christian”. da da dum!

1:17 More cock stroking of Islam’s importance to history. Inovation. Mathematics. yada yada.

1:19 Ok, so he’s a damn good speaker. President fist pump’s still got it. Making nice connections between Muslims and Americans. Americans as Muslims. And the historical significance between the two cultures.

1:20 “Out of many, one” - E Pluribus Unum – Damn right.

1:22 Obama spent the first 10 minutes of his speech to make a solid connection between Islam and the United States…. to prove that they are one and the same. Hearing the applause of the audience, I think he made is point well.

1:24 His speech has shifted to specific problems between the U.S. and the Arab world.

1:26 The #1 issue: Violent Extremism must stop. (otherwise we’ll continue to kick your ass)

1:32 9/11 was uber traumatic for Americans.

1:33 Gitmo is closed. No more torture. But don’t think we still won’t kick your ass if crossed.

1:34 Moving on to Israel: The U.S. will always be on the side of Israel.

1:35 Don’t be an ignorant fuck and deny the Holocaust. It happened and you look like idiots by denying it. (The audience is eerily silent.)

1:36 The Palestinians need a home too and the U.S. is aware of the problem. (Lots of applause.)

1:38 Now it’s Mother Obama speaking to the Arabs warning, “violence is bad”. Stop blowing up children. Stop blowing up women. Stop being ignorant. Start building a productive society.

1:40 “Arabs must recognize Israel”. (Silence from the audience.)

1:41 Israel must recognize Palestine. The U.S. wants the Israeli settlements to stop. Now. (Lots of applause.)

1:44 Nukes. Nukes. Nukes!!!! Obama doesn’t want anyone to have nukes. But some do. Some don’t. He doesn’t agree with it. But we should abide by the Nuke laws. No answers here.

1:46 Democracy in the Middle East. “No government should be forced on a country… (cough, Iraq.) but…. if the people want Democracy, give it to ‘em. (cough, Iraq.)

1:49 It’s like sitting in political science class again. Obama’s trying to explain the reasons for Democracy and why it’s good. These are the most basic concepts of human rights and democracy that western nations learn from birth.

1:50 Someone in the audience yelled something but I couldn’t understand it. Obama said “Thank You”. (?)

1:53 Women’s rights…… da da dum! It seems to be a relatively liberal audience as they applaud loudly to Obama’s insistence that women be given the same rights and choices as men.

1:57 And in conclusion, more cock stroking. “Arab nations have a lot to offer. Don’t toss it away with ignorance and violence. ”

2:01 “Message to young people: You are the future. “ I think if anyone else in the world said this, they would have been laughed off the stage as cliche. But I guess everything just sounds better coming from Obama.

2:05 Obama hanging around the stage after his speech. Not walking off right away.

What’s the ultimate message? Islam is a part of the United States.

Advice for Barack Obama from Lebanon

Michael J. Totten — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 21:22:51 +0000

I received an article in my inbox this afternoon from the terrific folks at the Lebanon Renaissance Foundation, and they gave me permission to publish it.

As Obama addresses Muslim world; a struggle to win Christian hearts and minds in the Middle East

In preparing to deliver his much-awaited speech from Cairo tomorrow, President Barack Obama may want to keep in mind that future American prestige and influence in the region depends not only on how his message is received by Muslims, but also by the region's Christians.

After all, just three days after the speech, the voters of Lebanon go to the polls in parliamentary elections, and Christians there are likely to determine the results. Virtually everyone in the region – and especially Iran, America's archenemy for influence throughout the Muslim world – has a vital interest in the outcome.

If the ruling majority wins, it will be a victory for Western interests; but if the Hizbullah-led coalition ekes out a victory, Iran will stand the victor. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — whose country arms and finances Hizbullah – recently said the outcome of the Lebanese elections “will change the Middle East.” Should Iran's proxies win, Obama's message to Muslims, no matter how hopeful and proactive, will be drowned out as Iran and Islamic fundamentalism will be seen as ascendant.

Whereas the majority of Lebanon's Sunni population is expected to vote in favor of the Western-leaning March 14 coalition and the majority of Shia are expected to back the Iranian and Syrian-supported March 8 coalition, the Christians remain split.

This goes against past experience. Lebanon's Christians historically have led the effort to protect Lebanon's sovereignty against Syrian and Iranian meddling. Yet since the 2005 Cedar Revolution, which brought together Lebanese of all communal backgrounds to demand an end to Syrian occupation, both Syria and Iran have succeeded in making significant inroads into the Lebanese Christian communities, which include Maronites, Greek Orthodox, Armenians, and Catholics.

This follows several years of effort by Iran and Syria to build influence among Lebanon's Christians – often by intimidation and violence directed at Christian leaders who backed the March 14 coalition. But there's been a soft side to this influence-building: Christian leaders who acquiesced to Syrian and Iranian interference in Lebanon and yielded to Hizbullah's powerful paramilitary force were rewarded with generous financial, political and military support. In landmark visits to Tehran and Damascus earlier this year Michel Aoun — leader of the largest Christian parliamentary bloc and formerly a staunch opponent of Syria and Iran — was received with honors usually reserved only for heads of state. Both countries described Aoun not only as the leader of Lebanese Christians, but as a leader of Christians throughout the Middle East.

The message from Syria and Iran to Lebanon's Christians is clear: Stick with us and you will reap the benefits and gain protection; side with the West and you will pay a heavy price.

To its credit, the Obama administration recognized the importance of Lebanon's upcoming vote, recently sending both Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton to Beirut. Congress has been equally engaged as Senator John Kerry, Congressman Gary Ackerman and a number of other congressional leaders have met with Lebanese officials and expressed support for Lebanese sovereignty. These gestures are important, but they may not be enough to avert a Hizbullah victory at the polls.

If the U.S. is determined to prevent Iran from further expanding its influence in the Middle East, American officials must focus not only on winning Muslim hearts and minds but also those of Lebanese and Middle Eastern Christians. There needs to be a concerted effort to win back this community, which has historically been friendly to America but is now at risk of being co-opted by Iran.

So in his address from Cairo tomorrow, President must not only reassure Muslims that America has their long-term interests at heart. He must also reassure Christians throughout the region that the U.S. remains committed to freedom, national sovereignty, and peace. And three days later, we will know whether that message was received among Lebanese Christians, or whether Iran takes a major step towards “changing the Middle East.”

Lebanon Renaissance Foundation

A Tall Order for Saudi Arabia?

Michael J. Totten — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 19:43:48 +0000

The New York Times inadvertently highlights how much more intransigent than Israel most Arab states are. President Barack Obama is soon heading to Saudi Arabia, where he will present wish-lists from the U.S. government, from the Israeli government, and from the Palestinian Authority. Israel isn’t asking for much – just a few symbolic tourist visas, meetings between Saudi officials and their Israeli counterparts, and the opening of a Saudi interests office in Tel Aviv. “These would be a tall order for the Arab kingdom,” the Times says.

Good grief. The Obama Administration expects Israelis to stop building houses in Jewish neighborhoods in suburban Jerusalem that they never intend to abandon, yet the Saudis won’t even _talk _to Israelis or let a few Jews visit the beach.

Once in a while, it’s wise to refuse meetings with enemies. President Franklin Roosevelt didn’t negotiate with Adolf Hitler or Emperor Hirohito during World War II. President Obama won’t hold a summit with the Taliban’s Mullah Omar or with Al Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden. Israel, though, isn’t a threat to Saudi Arabia. Israel has never attacked Saudi Arabia. Israel almost certainly never will attack Saudi Arabia. The overwhelming majority of Israelis want peace and normal relations with Saudi Arabia now. Saudi Arabia’s refusal to even speak to Israelis under these circumstances makes its government more reactionary than Israel’s would have been had then-Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin refused to meet with then-Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1979.

The idea that Saudi Arabia “can’t” have diplomatic relations with Israel until the Palestinian question is resolved has become mainstream, even axiomatic, but it’s nonsense.

Azerbaijan has an overwhelming Muslim majority, but Israel has an embassy there. Relations between the two countries are not only good, they’re improving. Most Turks, including those in the government, sympathize more with Palestinians than with Israelis, but Turkey remains an ally of Israel. Seventy percent of Albanians are at least nominal Muslims, but Albania gets along just fine with Israel.

None of those Muslim-majority countries are Arab, to be sure, but that shouldn’t make any difference. Egypt and Jordan are Arabic countries. Unlike Saudi Arabia, they fought deadly hot wars with Israel. Yet they both signed peace treaties years ago. There is no iron law of geopolitics that requires Saudi Arabia to remain in a state of cold war with Israel. The only reason the Saudis don’t have normal relations with Israel is because they prefer hostile relations.

Read the rest in Commentary Magazine.

Around the Web

Michael J. Totten — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 06:53:54 +0000

I posted the following over at Instapundit today while Glenn Reynolds is goofing off at the beach:

THE TALIBAN abduct up to hundreds of students in Pakistan.

PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY President Mahmoud Abbas: No, no, and no. Even the New York Times is losing patience with him.

JOSHUA MURAVCHIK: Islamists Lose Ground in the Middle East

YAACOV LOZOWICK: High-quality Political Cynicism Galore.

[N]o matter how childish the politicians-media-NGO activists are, the foreign reporters who eagerly take only part of the story and use it to damn Israel shouldn’t be exonerated. They could tell the same story I’ve just told you, but scrupulously won’t, ever.

One Third of Instapundit

Michael J. Totten — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 19:01:50 +0000

Glenn Reynolds is on vacation this week, so I’ll be guest-blogging at Instapundit again with Megan McArdle and Ann Althouse.

In addition to writing, I’m working on a speech this week that I’ll be giving in Washington DC this weekend. Megan and Ann may be a bit busier over there than me, but I’ll do what I can.

Hair test reveals travel, lifestyle

Ms. Missive — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 13:00:00 +0000

The analysis of a single hair can reveal where a person is from and where they’ve been, which could allow government agencies to track the travels of international criminals and terror suspects, according to researchers.

Researchers measuring the longitudinal sulfur isotopic variations in a strand of human hair can

…

Where to go for fried chicken in North Korea

Ms. Missive — Fri, 29 May 2009 21:04:00 +0000

(Credit: NKEW)

A Google Earth interactive Web site called North Korea Economy Watch not only sheds light on that country’s economic, military, and cultural infrastructure, but also maps some of its darkest secrets.

The site is intended as a resource for business, policy makers, academics, journalists and others interested

…

Avoid sinking feeling with bulletproof lifejacket

Ms. Missive — Wed, 27 May 2009 13:00:00 +0000

(Credit: A0A)

Here’s a must-have accessory for any soiree off Somalia, the ArmourFloat personal flotation device.

Not only does the Armour Float Ballistic Vest keep even an unconscious wearer afloat, but its new lightweight, hard-plate armor is designed to defeat most assault rifle threats–with no negative effect on the

…

Fancy pants headed to Afghanistan

Ms. Missive — Wed, 27 May 2009 03:50:00 +0000

Afghanistan is a rugged country. How rugged is it? It’s so rugged the U.S. Army has commissioned special pants for soldiers fighting there.

The new Army Combat Pants are designed to take whatever Takur Ghar and other Afghan mountain ranges have to hand out, according to the Army.

…

Memorial Day 2009: TheyHaveNames.com

Ms. Missive — Mon, 25 May 2009 15:49:21 +0000

On this Memorial Day take a moment to check out a site newly launched called “They Have Names” which chronicles the life and death of a fallen American soldiers:

‘Bone putty’ holds it together

Ms. Missive — Sun, 24 May 2009 13:10:00 +0000

(Credit: DARPA)

An all star research team is developing a putty-like material to help regenerate shattered bones, a technology that could allow soldiers to avoid amputation and quickly regain full use of badly broken legs.

‘Fracture putty‘ is a biocompatible compound designed to be packed in and around non-union fractures.

…

Shocker Talk Show Host Mancow Waterboarded; Epic Fail

Ms. Missive — Sat, 23 May 2009 17:22:30 +0000

Mancow, the popular Chicago area talk show host, wanted to prove to you that waterboarding isn’t torture.

Guess who was schooled?

“With a Chicago Fire Department paramedic on hand, Mancow was placed on a 7-foot long table, his legs were elevated, and his feet were tied up.

Turns out the stunt wasn’t so funny. Witnesses said Muller thrashed on the table, and even instantly threw the toy cow he was holding as his emergency tool to signify when he wanted the experiment to stop. He only lasted 6 or 7 seconds.

‘It is way worse than I thought it would be, and that’s no joke,’ Mancow said, likening it to a time when he nearly drowned as a child. ‘It is such an odd feeling to have water poured down your nose with your head back…It was instantaneous…and I don’t want to say this: absolutely torture.’

‘I wanted to prove it wasn’t torture,’ Mancow said. ‘They cut off our heads, we put water on their face…I got voted to do this but I really thought “I’m going to laugh this off.” ‘

Heh……

[via LGF]

SUV nuke detector will avert covert attack, company claims

Ms. Missive — Fri, 22 May 2009 13:00:00 +0000

(Credit: Raytheon)

A turbo-charged engine, 21-inch wheels, Bluetooth, and 600-watt THX speakers are fine, but for the SUV owner who desires everything, how about a Mobile Nuclear Radiation Detection System?

Raytheon is offering the Sports Utility Vehicle-Based Radiation Detection System, which uses advanced spectroscopic technology to detect and identify nuclear

…

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