MarketWatch Morning Stock Talk

Marcouiller: Just a few more weeks, then back up

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 11:42:04 EST

"We're going to stay in this trading range another three weeks to a month," predicts Scott Marcouiller, senior equity market strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors. "Then we'll see more improvement in the data, and our expectation is that we will then move higher." But Marcouiller tells Andrew O'Day he does not buy into some predictions that the economy grew in the second quarter. "We don't see a positive GDP until later in the year." As for today's spoil, consumer sentiment, Marcouiller says "the best thing that could improve the mood of consumers is higher stock prices."

Paulsen: Dominance of doubt

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 12:03:21 EST

Despite the fact that we're getting rather regular news of recovery... no one is buying in that we've ended this [downturn]." That's according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, who tells Andrew O'Day savvy investors can use today's dominance of doubt to their advantage. "Whatever the recovery's going to be-weak, strong, whatever-I think we're very early in that recovery. That tells me maybe Wall Street has lifted prices because there's no coming depression. But I don't think they've priced in any sort of recovery."

Johnson: Earnings will be better than you think

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 11:27:02 EST

"You might have some pleasant [earnings] surprises," says Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer at Johnson Illington Advisors. Johnson tells Andrew O'Day "the expectation is that we'll have a 34 percent decline year over year in S&P earnings. I think it will be close to a 28 percent decline." But he still does not think it will do much for Wall Street. Johnson places more significance in the IMF's economic forecast. "They have actually improved their forecasts just a little bit which is pretty good news. They have a lot of credibility among very savvy investors."

Brooks: Now the market is poised to drift higher

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 12:08:33 EST

"Almost everybody thinks, oh my goodness. The market's rallied too much too quickly." But Andy Brooks, vice president and head of U.S. equity trading at T. Rowe Price, says that means opportunity. "That in my mind says, as a contrarian, that maybe we'll surprise a bit and keep chugging along a little bit higher." Brooks tells Andrew O'Day that earnings reporting season likely will yield few if any real surprises.

Danielson: Today's investors are from Missouri

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 11:43:39 EST

"We're in that phase where we say, 'Prove it to me.'" That's what Loren Danielson, senior vice president at RBC Wealth Management, says about sentiment the economy is getting better. Danielson tells Andrew O'Day "we're going to need to see some better news justifying the move off the bottom that stocks have made." He says the number 47 in the ISM's June services index does not do the job.

Stone: Economic recovery is now on shakier ground

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:31:21 EST

Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management tells Andrew O'Day investors are nervous because today's employment report can further erode consumer confidence, consumer spending, and ultimately economic recovery itself. "The key is whether demand continues, and of course that's always the concern when you see these job numbers." He adds "if you don't have a job, it's hard to actually go out and buy anything." Stone says this report suggests the second quarter may have been even weaker than first believed. "We have an estimate of down about two and a half percent for GDP. We might see that edge up to three percent."

Liro: First half rally means second half recovery

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 12:29:22 EST

"The market rallies ahead of the actual turn in economic activity," says Joe Liro, equity strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates. Liro tells Andrew O'Day "I'm willing to give the market the benefit of the doubt and think that it's probably pretty close to being right in its timing of actually seeing positive economic growth toward the end of 2009." Liro blames today's pullback on the disappointing read of consumer confidence, but he adds "it's probably best to look at what they're doing rather than what they're saying. "What's crucial is how that's going to translate into retail sales over the next couple of months."

Cardillo: Get ready for an employment surprise

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:17:18 EST

"This Thursday, we will have a surprise in the employment numbers," predicts Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners. Cardillo tells Andrew O'Day "we will see an [unemployment] uptick of about one tenth of a percent to 9.5 percent, and nonfarm payrolls improving in the sense that we'll see a decline of about 235,000. That's obviously still negative, but improving." As for today's advance, Cardillo calls it window-dressing. "When you have an up market as we've had and certainly a good quarter in terms of gains, the last few trading days are generally on the positive side."

Johnson: Consumer-led recovery not in the cards

Fri, 26 Jun 2009 10:52:29 EST

Wall Street is not impressed by word that consumers' income and spending rose in May, says Hugh Johnson, the chief investment officer at Johnson Illington Advisors. He says investors are realizing consumer spending won't give us the strong recoveries we've seen historically. "This is going to be an anemic recovery by post-World War Two standards," says Johnson. He thinks the market is due for a 5-15% correction. "The stock market is at a level that overstates the strength of the recovery because consumer spending might improve, but it's not going to improve at a very strong pace," says Johnson.

Hogan's indictment: No market conviction

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:04:05 EST

June has been a tread water month for Wall Street, says Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jeffries & Company. "At the end of May, we are exactly 40 percent off of our March 9th lows, and 40 percent below our October 2007 highs. So at that middle point, we're looking at a market that has certainly lacked a lot of volume and a lot of conviction." Hogan tells Andrew O'Day today's advance is coming not from first quarter GDP, but from rising commodity prices. "That has been one of the biggest drivers of the past two weeks. And that's driving things like oil and gas, energy stocks, basic materials."