Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

Economy May Close Window for Obama

Sun, 12 Jul 2009 20:57:06 -0500

The Wall Street Journal's latest forecasting survey finds that, on average, economists predict an unemployment rate of at least 10% through next June, with a decline to 9.5% by December 2010. If true, the midterm elections will be held during a period when joblessness is about the same as today.

Nate Silver: "There is not much time for the Administration to lose in pushing forward the Democratic agenda. The recent sluggishness in the recovery reduces, if not altogether eliminates, the possibility that the Democrats will have some kind of golden window of opportunity prior to the next midterms..."

"These next couple of months -- the time just before and after the Senate recesses in August -- are precious for the Democrats. Sure, they'd probably have an easier go of things if the recession hadn't gotten quite so deep. But it's nevertheless likely to be their best time to play offense until the spring of 2011, and possibly much longer than that."

Who Was the Senator?

Sun, 12 Jul 2009 17:16:24 -0500

In a MSNBC appearance, New York Times columnist David Brooks discusses the loss of dignity in America and recounts a dinner party where he had the misfortune to sit next to a GOP senator who "had his hand on my inner thigh the whole time. I was like, ehh, get me out of here."

When asked who it was, Brooks said, "I'm not telling you, I'm not telling you."

Obama Campaign Plane Had Serious Problems

Sun, 12 Jul 2009 17:01:52 -0500

Los Angeles Times: "Airplane control problems last summer could have led to disaster for then-Sen. Barack Obama and his presidential campaign, according to a report released Friday by the National Transportation Safety Board."

Palin Didn't Consult McCain on Resignation

Sun, 12 Jul 2009 11:55:30 -0500

On Meet the Press, Sen. John McCain told host David Gregory he was surprised by Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's sudden resignation last week.

GREGORY: You must have been shocked to see Governor Sarah Palin to resign as governor

MCCAIN: Well, I wasn't shocked. Obviously, I was a bit surprised, but I wasn't shocked. I understand that Sarah made the decision where she can be most effective for Alaska and for the country. I love and respect her and her family. I'm grateful that she agreed to run with me. I am confident she will be a major factor in the national scene, and in Alaska, as well.

GREGORY: But you said you were surprised a little bit. Why?

MCCAIN: Well, because she had not called me. We had discussed it since, and I better understand the reasons for her decision.

Quote of the Day

Sun, 12 Jul 2009 11:27:41 -0500

"There's a fine line between maverick and quirky."

-- Former Bush aide Karen Hughes, on Meet the Press, about Gov. Sarah Palin's surprise resignation.

Why Sanford Will Hang On

Sun, 12 Jul 2009 11:25:35 -0500

The State reviews the three factors that allow South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford to cling to his office:

His wife, Jenny, stepped to his defense for the first time.
State law enforcement officials found Sanford broke no laws. Absent that, state law makes it difficult to remove a governor.
South Carolina's Republican leadership -- many involved in the wrangling over the 2010 governor's race -- refused to ask Sanford to quit.

"Unless something new emerges -- either in the media or through a legislative investigation -- Sanford will survive."

Palin Will Stay in Politics

Sun, 12 Jul 2009 11:23:45 -0500

"Brushing aside the criticisms of pundits and politicos, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin said she plans to jump immediately back into the national political fray -- stumping for conservative issues and even Democrats -- after she prematurely vacates her elected post at month's end," the Washington Times reports.

In an interview, Palin said "she views the electorate as embattled and fatigued by nonstop partisanship, and she is eager to campaign for Republicans, independents and even Democrats who share her values on limited government, strong defense and 'energy independence.'"

Said Palin: "I will go around the country on behalf of candidates who believe in the right things, regardless of their party label or affiliation."

Cheney Ordered CIA to Keep Information from Congress

Sat, 11 Jul 2009 17:20:36 -0500

The CIA "withheld information about a secret counterterrorism program from Congress for eight years on direct orders from former Vice President Dick Cheney, the agency's director, Leon Panetta, has told the Senate and House intelligence committees," reports the New York Times.

"The report that Mr. Cheney was behind the decision to conceal the still-unidentified program from Congress deepened the mystery surrounding it, suggesting that the Bush administration had put a high priority on the program and its secrecy."

Related? Four knowledgeable sources tell Newsweek that Attorney General Eric Holder "is now leaning toward appointing a prosecutor to investigate the Bush administration's brutal interrogation practices."

Quote of the Day

Sat, 11 Jul 2009 17:17:53 -0500

"Problem w/Professional Politicians:They're more concerned w/holding a title in perpetuity than just accomplishing goals they promised voters."

-- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, spinning her resignation on Twitter.

Bush Bashing Thrives

Sat, 11 Jul 2009 11:08:43 -0500

Politico: "It's been six months since President Bush left the White House and quietly decamped to Dallas, but you'd hardly know it from watching the two marquee elections of 2009. Bush-bashing, it seems, has not lost its political potency."

Corzine Claims Race is Tightening

Sat, 11 Jul 2009 09:18:10 -0500

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) said an internal campaign poll has challenger Christopher Christie (R) leading their gubernatorial match up by just four points, 42% to 38%, with independent Christopher Daggett at 4%, reports Politicker NJ.

In a two-way race, Christie's lead widens to six points.

Recent independent polls have Christie ahead by six to ten points.

Obama Signals Health Care Strategy

Sat, 11 Jul 2009 09:13:09 -0500

Speaking at a news conference after a summit in Italy, President Obama hinted that he and his aides will be making campaign-style appearances around the country to keep up the pressure on lawmakers ro produce a health care overhaul, reports CQ Politics.

And if Congress thinks it can wrap up work on a messy issue by producing a watered-down compromise by September, think again. Asked whether it's do-or-die by the August recess, Obama responded, "I never believe anything is do-or-die. But I really want to get it done by the August recess."

Kirk Will Not Run for Illinois Senate Seat

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 15:57:46 -0500

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) will not run for the open seat of Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL) in 2010, the Washington Post reports.

It's a "stunning reversal from just 48 hours ago" when Kirk signaled that he would be a candidate.

Kirk's decision -- "a blow to Senate Republicans' chances in Illinois" -- came in the wake of Burris' formal retirement this afternoon.

Update: Roll Call says Kirk is still mulling the race and that he is trying to avoid a primary with state Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna. Kirk and McKenna are discussing the race over the weekend.

Democrats Maintain Edge in Party Support

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 14:20:00 -0500

Gallup: "The Democratic Party continues to hold a solid advantage in party support over the Republican Party, as 49% of Americans interviewed in the second quarter of this year identified with or leaned to the Democratic Party, compared with 40% who did so for the Republican Party. However, that nine-point Democratic advantage is smaller than the 13-point edge Gallup measured in the first quarter of the year."

Quote of the Day

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 12:51:58 -0500

"We wanted to see what it looked like with so many desks on our side."

-- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), after going up to the Senate gallery for the first time with Sens. Charles Schumer (D-NY) and Tom Harkin (D-IA).

Bipartisan Health Care Talks on Life Support

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 12:29:17 -0500

George Stephanopoulos: "Little progress has been made in continuing negotiations on Capitol Hill over a bipartisan health care reform bill... As a fall back plan, Democrats on Capitol Hill are planning to go this alone. That will increase the chance that we'll see Obama's public option in the bill."

Obama Tops Pawlenty in His Home State

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 11:47:33 -0500

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Minnesota finds President Obama leads Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), 51% to 40%, in a possible 2012 presidential match up.

Key finding: "Only 6% of respondents who approve of Obama said they would vote for Pawlenty against him. That's not much of a home field advantage for the Governor."

Americans Know Little About Supreme Court

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 11:37:36 -0500

With Sonia Sotomayor's Senate confirmation hearings to join the Supreme Court set to begin next week, a new C-SPAN poll finds less than half of all Americans even know the court has nine justices.

In addition, just 46% of those surveyed could name any of the justices.

Not So Rogue

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 10:40:00 -0500

Had Gov. Sarah Palin "gone rogue" in last year's presidential campaign when she accused Barack Obama of "palling around" with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers?

According to a book out next month -- The Battle for America 2008: The Story of an Extraordinary Election by Haynes Johnson and Dan Balz -- she was acting on directions from the very top of the McCain campaign, Marc Ambinder reports.

Emails show the McCain campaign had suggested the following line: "This is not a man who sees American as you and I do -- as the greatest force for good in the world. This is someone who sees America as imperfect enough to pal around with terrorists who targeted their own country."

At the event, Palin said this: "Our opponent... is someone who sees America, it seems, as being so imperfect, imperfect enough, that he's palling around with terrorists who would target their own country. This is not a man who sees America as you see America and as I see America."

If you haven't rounded out your summer reading list yet, this looks like a book to add.

Saying Goodbye to Palin

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 10:09:37 -0500

Peggy Noonan on Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin:

"She went on the trail a sensation but demonstrated in the ensuing months that she was not ready to go national and in fact never would be. She was hungry, loved politics, had charm and energy, loved walking onto the stage, waving and doing the stump speech. All good. But she was not thoughtful. She was a gifted retail politician who displayed the disadvantages of being born into a point of view (in her case a form of conservatism; elsewhere and in other circumstances, it could have been a form of liberalism) and swallowing it whole: She never learned how the other sides think, or why."

"In television interviews she was out of her depth in a shallow pool. She was limited in her ability to explain and defend her positions, and sometimes in knowing them. She couldn't say what she read because she didn't read anything. She was utterly unconcerned by all this and seemed in fact rather proud of it: It was evidence of her authenticity. She experienced criticism as both partisan and cruel because she could see no truth in any of it. She wasn't thoughtful enough to know she wasn't thoughtful enough."

A Snapshot Can Be Misleading

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 09:25:55 -0500

While a photo of President Obama apparently checking out a young woman in Rome made it's way around the Internet, a video of the same moment proves it was a much more innocent moment.

However, the same cannot be said for French President Nicholas Sarkozy.

Pressure Grows on Ensign

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 08:53:27 -0500

Senate leaders generally refused comment on Sen. John Ensign's (R-NV) admission that he paid nearly $100,000 to the family of his mistress but the Las Vegas Sun says GOP support for the embattled senator was dwindling.

One Nevada GOP consultant told Roll Call that the math on the figures released "does not appear to add up and expressed concern that there were additional, still-undisclosed payments. "

Said the consultant: "Watching the money trail is going to be important... The sense is it's still not over."

As for whether Ensign will be forced to resign, "the key players to watch in Nevada Republican circles will be Gov. Jim Gibbons, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki and Rep. Dean Heller. A resignation demand from any of those Silver State GOP leaders would indicate that Ensign's support back home is crumbling."

Specter Challenges Sestak's Party Credentials

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 08:42:05 -0500

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) called likely primary rival Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) "a flagrant hypocrite in challenging my being a real Democrat" and accused his rival of registering as a Democrat "just in time to run for Congress," CNN reports.

Said Specter: "His lame excuse for avoiding party affiliation, because he was in the service, is undercut by his documented disinterest in the political process."

Steve Benen notes "the fascinating aspect to this is that Arlen Specter is questioning someone else's party loyalty. Given the circumstances, that takes some real chutzpah."

Republicans Send Franken $96K Check

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 08:01:39 -0500

"In the last chapter of a stinging loss to now-Sen. Al Franken, Minnesota's Republican Party has sent the Democrat almost $96,000 to cover lawsuit costs," the AP reports.

"Republican Party spokesman Mark Drake said a check was sent via courier Monday to Franken's campaign committee. It arrived Tuesday, the same day Franken took his oath for a seat held open during an eight-month recount and court fight."

Democrats Retake Control of New York State Senate

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 21:53:12 -0500

New York State Sen. Pedro Espada "returned to the Democrats and was named Senate majority leader as part of a deal worked out by Senate Democratic leaders, ending a month long stalemate that has hobbled state government," the New York Times reports.

Democrats now hold a 32-30 majority in the chamber.