JCL's Forex

All Pairs Moving

Jordan — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:06:47 -0600

bashar: hello all
bashar: all pairs moving in the right way
dcbennett: So nice to go and get my evening meal and come back to much, much more pips than when I left Thanks Jordan
jordan: dcb; which trades did you get into - all of them or a few?
jordan: hey bashar
bashar:
bashar: nice move
jordan: did you get the gbp/usd h4? (missed that one!)
bashar: 1.6188
jordan: beautiful
bashar: and missed aud/usd - aud/jpy & gbp/jpy
dcbennett: Sorry Jordan, just came back to my computer, All of them I think!
dcbennett: Obviously lots of stop outs recently but gotta take the long term view.
jordan: NICE!! I also missed the usd/jpy from last week which is turning out to be a gem
jordan: oh yeah, last week has been tough but really our balance has not suffered much at all - maybe just us mentally is all
dcbennett: Just short term up and down. Long term still excellent returns
jordan: looking to get us moving so that even if these periods we are climbing upwards even if just a little bit
dcbennett: Thanks for doing that Jordan. Thanks for everything!!
jordan: yep, thank you all
dcbennett: Shortly after I first joined the group, I remember reading what someone had written - that you are a blessing to us. That is the truth short term setbacks not withstanding. So thanks again Jordan!

last update 20:22 GMT 7.6.2009

4 Hour

8 Hour

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Tough Trading Days

Jordan — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:29:41 -0600

greg: would you classify these as tricky trading days Jordan? I think it's tough right now but I'm much less experienced than you
jordan: a tricky (or the worst trading day) is one that has sharp quick moves back and forth. You see a move so quick and sharp you think I have to get in! and take a position then it reverses just as quick and you think I have to exit and reverse! then this happens again and again and you just blew out your account and are sick
jordan: that has happened to me
tony: i was sure i was the only one with the bad luck
jordan: today, if you were free trading 'seems' to be quite good. for the last two hours we saw strong $$ and it was clear and have been strong since
greg: that's why we need a system like yours. When I used to play with demos and was really just trading to see what happened I blew at least 3 5k demo accounts
greg: You see Tony I get that sort of luck too!
greg: it was horrible to watch
ajay: This volatility is not done for today.
jordan: you are thinking we are going to whipsaw back ajay?
greg: I fear that too, but I'm just afraid at the moment

jordan:there is nothing to fear. Just took a hit on the usd/cad and lost 0.19% of the account. if you are using the right position sizing the losses do not hurt you and when we catch a wave you build up the account. we never know which signals are going to hold. it is about perseverance. We had an easy two months with good profits and now the last two and a half weeks have been tough while all pairs are in a tight range but we have not given back anything of our accounts. that ROCKS for trend traders!

ajay: Sorry I setped out for a bit. Yes I do think this market will be choppy for next three days. Last day of Q and than July 4th will make it whipsaw
greg: it's all about mental attitude Jordan, I'm still developing my mental toughness to this, although I just checked and I lost EXACTLY 0.19% of my account. Must be doing something right! Not using oanda for actual trading I used it to calculate the lots I should be trading with Alpari, you just confirmed it for me
greg: when I started trading real money I would get annoyed if I lost even like 0.01% - as it was a loss of real money and I would think "that was the price of a pint or whatever" now I am detached from the £ amount. Last week was tough for me as it was the most trades I've ever opened at one time
greg: and I found THAT scary, but I'm getting there
jordan: although I just checked and I lost EXACTLY 0.19% of my account. - okay, good. trying to enforce the no need for fear could you imagine how bad things would have to be for us to have a 3 or 4% draw down
jordan: i am trying to build the correct mental attitude for correct mindset as best I know is all
greg: well you're doing a good job. I read that trading is 15% the system you use to get signals or whatever and 85% mental attitude.
jordan: after you put up your first profitable year of trading you can start writing what it is all about. we don't listen to others because I doubt many of them could put up a return on their money and we can!
greg: everyone I talk to (outside this forum) about trading tells me I'm gambling and I try to say "but no, I work with a system which works" people dont want to hear it. I've stopped telling people that I like to trade
amir: its hard to trade profitably, at least in my experiences, when you expect too much from it
amir: and when you also invest like ALL of your money in it
amir:
greg: what do you mean Amir? I re-mortgaged my house to do this?!?
amir: I did that when I first started, I put pretty much all of my money into fx and when it was gone I was like "damn...ugh I coulda bought a bmw with that"
amir:
jordan: at the end of the year tell them you had a 10%, 20%, 30% or whatever it is return on your money and ask them how they did with the banks and retirement plans
[15:28:54] jordan: people always think and follow the herd. that is why they all lost 40-60% of their savings last year. and trading is dangerous? What has been our biggest draw down on our accounts all year, less than 4%? Not bad for double digit gains

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Limit orders & stops, FIFO and the new no hedging rule

Jordan — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 18:32:58 -0600

Re: Limit orders & stops, FIFO and what we need to do regarding the new no hedging rule the CFTC approved on recommendations from the NFA

jordan: writing up a note regarding the changes coming at the end of July/August
greg: are limit orders / stops being outlawed?

Brokers are handling this in different ways. First let's discuss the new hedging rule. Simply put any US broker no longer is able to offer hedging. Oanda never allowed hedging however has always offered sub-accounts which is an effective way to trade any pair both ways at the same time. FXCM is transferring customer accounts to their UK offices if you desire to be able to hedge.

greg: I think this is maybe a US thing? I can still hedge with Alpari, maybe UK rules different??
amir: uk doesnt have to comply with nfa. So yeah, that's correct uk rules are different and nfa regs dont apply
greg: Seems crazy why the NFA are doing this
ajay: I have FXCM only. They have been very good to me. Last month when US regulators stopped hedging, lot of people switched over to UK FXCM. I am sure Oanda will have to follow same reglations
jordan: Oanda dwarfs other brokers in capitalization
jordan: valued at $1.2 billion - Silicon Alley Insider, The World's Most Valuable Digital Startups. #10, you know just behind companies like Facebook, Wikipedia, Craigslist, Mozilla Corp & LinkedIn http://www.businessinsider.com/sai25
jordan: sure they have done their homework (there is no hedging w/ Oanda, they offer sub-accounts however which we have always used (4 & 8 hour seperate accounts)
sledge: I moved my account to UK 1.5 months ago, problem solved for now, Also with the MT5 changes the order handling will be a bit different from what I have read
ajay: Sledge I was tempeted to move my account too. Is you money safe? and how fast you get your money back.
jordan: sure, UK banks are real safe - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5639474/British-banks-highly-vulnerable-to-future-shocks-Bank-of-England-warns.html
sledge: yeah most of the larger brokers have UK branches, ask them and they will transfer your account
greg: really great article. Joy. I already had money in an Iceland bank which went bust, that was fun
sledge: yeah most of the larger brokers have UK branches, ask them and they will transfer your account

FIFO (First In First Out) Rule

Some brokers are currently only applying FIFO to hedging. Talk to your broker asap to find out exactly how they are going to handle it.

tony: Jordan do FIFO chang our trading for long term?

jordan: confirming with Oanda right now

jordan: is Oanda getting rid of stops and limits (take profits) orders as per the new CFTC approved no hedging rules.
OANDA: No. New rules should not affect the FXTrade platform, as we are already in compliance with hedging restrictions and FIFO rules.

Regarding the FIFO ruling and it's application by various brokers:

1. There is no consensus on the rule and how it is going to be applied. Some brokers are stating that MT4 will not be used (until MT5 is released) b/c it won't be compliant, and others are saying that they have it compliant so don't worry.

2. There is no consensus on whether it is just meant for hedges or for all positions (such as would be used in a grid strategy). Some brokers say it is for all and others just for hedges.

Do the new FIFO rules effect our trading?

tony: Jordan does the first in first out (FIFO) change our trading for long term?
jordan: it depends; those not using Oanda and using a US broker would no longer be able to trade the ZLC along with the Drop In trade as if they were long a pair on a ZLC trade and then took a Drop In trade on a pullback when it came time to exit the Drop In trade into profit the ZLC trade (which was placed first) would be exited.

The Drop In will be fine once the new update is released (which is taking profit earlier and spliting from 2 to 3 orders) will be able to be traded by anyone using any broker anywhere in the world.
vets: Hello Jordan, Hello everyone Jordan, looking forward to the new 3 order system that let's us take profit sooner. TP Rocks!

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June 25, 2009

Jordan — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 08:41:41 -0600

System Update

Today will be a release for the long awaited locking stops to break even on the ZLC (4 & 8 hour). Will be posted on the update later.

[13:52:22] jordan: 0pen positions updated
[13:53:25] jordan: I have to say with how tough the markets have been the last two weeks I am really happy we have not given up anything on our account balance, however we can fix that so that we are making small gains as well
[13:54:32] vets: considering the market conditions "Conquer" has played some great defense when things got choppy. well done Jordan!
[13:54:54] benjamin: Yes sooner the better.
[13:55:17] jordan: now I would like to see a defense that is also chopping away with small gains during these conditions
[13:55:40] jordan: also we need more defense on the ZLC which will be done (is being done right now) today

Approaching Setup

All eyes on the USD/CAD H4 as it is either going to fall back into a Drop In or cross the zero line to the upside for a ZLC.

[14:00:35] giovi: what we do with H4 USD/CAD ?
[14:01:28] jordan: right now we have sell Drop In criteria. we are also very close to a buy ZLC but price is now dropping
[14:01:45] giovi: ok thanks
[14:01:50] jordan: looks like 16:00 GMT will be the point we enter a short Drop In or if not looks like 20:00 GMT could be the buy ZLC

Possible Short Drop In

Possible Long ZLC

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15 Minute Action

Jordan — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 09:16:31 -0600

Good morning, last night when we entered the usd/jpy drop-in, i went short on the gbp/jpy as a discretionary trade. the 15 minute showed overbought on the 34,3,3 slow Stoch. i took 70 pips or so when the gbp/jpy de-coupled from the usd/jpy and showed a buy according the 15 rules. so i punched the take-profit button and reversed into a buy on the gbp/jpy. that was with the true trend direction. it went off like a rocket and made a new high, when the slow Stoch showed overbought at nearly 100 on the scale. once the candle overlapped, i closed that one. i like it.!....so, the secret to me is your candle overlap rule....that's huge in this trading logic.

I have always held that the price movements we see are not market driven....but manipulated.....but if that was so, the market operators could give us bad whipsaws so that the 15 minute candles exceeded each other all the time....then the 15 minute would be chaos. I'm happy to see that possibly the market is truly public. of course the 4 hour chart (called the dealer chart) could be influenced by the big boys, but that would mean that for some reason they leave the 15 minute charts untouched.? you discovered the "first overlap" of the candle system....how they stair step without overlapping. I'm afraid to let this information out!! LOL..really, i won't post or tell anyone on a forum about it. but you have the "need to know" i suppose the 4 hour systems churn out just as many pips, but the 15 minute is the pulse of the market , maybe?...

Also, i have 7 filters for the 15 minute system I've casually noticed, but they real "individual call" type things like taking the second bump on the slow Stoch. I'm really liking this, can ya tell?,....ha ha talk to ya later Rex

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June 23, 2009

Jordan — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:50:47 -0600

Hello all,

Interesting couple of weeks. As expected the trend that has been in place for the last two months has showed signs of weakness. With yesterday's price action we even felt that some confirmation of this. However today all pairs are now moving back toward the trend in place with pretty decent momentum with further signs of USD weakness.

I am surprised by the price action and that is why I continually say I know nothing and just follow the rules. Conquer has us positioned well for this move with several new entries in the direction of the trend in place. Nothing is confirmed until price sets new highs here but I have to be honest, if I were trading speculatively I would be hold positions right now against the trend and doing a lot of hoping right now that my positions would come back to break even. Thankfully we have a plan to follow.

Greg completed the spreadsheet for the Conquer which you can download from the right under Spreadsheets. Check it out, it can be really useful for those not using Oanda as their broker. Good stuff.

4 Hour:

AUD/JPY buy Drop In re-entry (stopped out at b/e)

8 Hour:

USD/CAD sell Drop In re-entry

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June 20, 2009

Jordan — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 11:27:35 -0600

Hello all,

Last week was a trying week with the market stuck in a tight range. This is to be expected after the markets have been over extended overbought/sold towards the trend for the last few weeks and trending for the last couple of months. Very pleased with setting the trades to break even at 1/2 protecting the account balance in these range bound markets.

Happy to end the week being what it was with an ever so slight gain of 0.18% on the Conquer H4 and for AUD/JPY and AUD/USD taking profit on Friday.

Greg completed the spreadsheet for the Conquer which you can download from the right under Spreadsheets. Check it out, it can be really useful for those not using Oanda as their broker. Good stuff.

4 Hour:

8 Hour:

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June 16, 2009

Jordan — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 10:54:39 -0600

Hello all,

All of the Drop In trades yesterday on the 4 hour (EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, GBP/JPY* & AUD/USD) have their stops losses moved to break even (entry) as they have moved 1/2 ATR in profit giving us free no risk trades now.

*I missed the gbp/jpy trade so it will not be in my open positions below.

EUR/JPY & USD/CAD both stopped out at break even (entry price) and we are looking for re-entry. Check the update as the day progresses to keep up with the day's activity.

I am happy to have gotten all of those trades to b/e, yesterday I thought they would all be stopping out - http://forextradinglife.com/jcls-forex/june-15-2009

4 Hour:

Drop In re-entry:
EUR/JPY buy
USD/CAD sell

8 Hour:

Drop In re-entry:
EUR/JPY buy

Watching:

USD/JPY buy Drop In

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June 15, 2009

Jordan — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 17:22:29 -0600

Hello all,

More profit taking on our open orders expected this week. We also have a few new trades coming as the pullback has begun. Too soon to know if it is too soon to enter or now, we can only follow what works - our trading plan.

4 Hour:

Current Drop In Criteria:
EUR/USD buy
EUR/JPY buy
USD/CAD sell
USD/CHF sell

Watching:

USD/JPY short ZLC
AUD/USD buy Drop In

Coming off a month of strong profits as we were able to catch a good portion of all trending pairs it is important to remember not all trades are going to be winners. What is important to understand that our risk/reward on each trade ranges from at least 2:1 to 9:1 so we know that after taking several losses it will only take us a few profitable trades to recover from any draw down. Also we simply do not know what is going to happen at any time and these new entries may just continue to extend our gains on our current positions.

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Heart Walk for Aleksei the Lionheart!

Jordan — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 17:22:56 -0600

Hello all,

As you know all I recommend giving back and helping each other when possible. John Alexander aka "johnnyjet" has been with us for over three and a half years now starting with the group when it just started at a time when there was no resources including chat room and just some emails. He has helped us at times when nobody else could and it is safe to say without him there would be no Conquering The Markets trading group.

He needs some help. His nephew Alesksi (cool name!) was born in Januray with mulitple heart defects. He now has some of the coolest implanted teach you have heard heard of and he is starting to smile.

This weekend John is doing a heart walk for Alesksi the lionheart and if you would like to support him please click on the link for Alesksi.

Please keep Alesksi and his family in your prayers.

God bless all.

Peace,
Jordan