Politics is like chess, especially at the presidential level. It takes skill to plan out the next 18-24 months in the future, especially as other potential candidates & their allies are all jostling and repositioning to make themselves look better. Good “players” recognize not only where they need to get to, but the steps required to get there. The next move is as important as the strategy for three moves down the road.

Bad players, on the other hand, tend to focus on the grand strategy and lose sight of the next few moves. That’s how you can four-move checkmate an opponent at the start of a game. They’re too busy thinking about a complicated opening or their middle game while you’re actually checkmating them.

Perhaps this is an esoteric analogy, but Palin’s move seems like that novice chess mistake. No matter what the actual reason, she’s missed the whole “quitter” angle. It’s a big mistake. The ads for the Republican primary practically write themselves. I can’t imagine Romney is going to back down from that fight or that some deal can be struck that puts her at the top of the ticket unopposed. There are too many competing voices and egos, as there always are, in Presidential politics.

No matter what is really going on here, her ambitions are toast. She’s hurt her own chances as a candidate. She’s diminished her ability to help other candidates in close races (key part of the endorsement quid pro quo at this level). I can’t see anything that gets better because of this, and I’ve tried hard to look at this from her perspective.

I keep imagining the following scenario playing out at Team Palin HQ:

1. Palin believes she has a legitimate shot at 2012, she knows she’s popular now, and therefore can create/cement a movement around her right now. Two more years in Alaska won’t get her any more visibility but will likely diminish it.
2. Some opportunity has presented itself to allow her to focus on that movement: a book deal, tv/radio gig, etc. This is the “higher calling” she feels is a must do, because it enables point 1 which means she can “save America.”
3. If she does this while being governor, she’ll be criticized for ignoring the work of being governor.
4. Ergo, she resigned to preempt that criticism so she can be free to pursue this opportunity.

That’s the most Palin friendly explanation I can see at this point. Just to get there, I’m conceding her claims of patriotism driving this (it wouldn’t be the first time she’s confused ambition and patriotism), and conceding that there’s no scandal. Even in this frame, nothing else makes sense.

So I keep coming back to that analogy: she’s going to get four-moved. She just hasn’t realized it yet.

When you go see Transformers, bring your iPhone, Blackberry, or laptop. Surf the web, answer emails, do whatever until you hear a gunshot or explosion or ominous music. Start watching until someone starts talking without an explosion happening at the same time, at which point you can return to your other activity.

Or, better yet, just wait until it comes out on Netflix. Seriously. Save your money.

There’s something just “right” about this remix. I started looking for this because of a tight mashup by DJ Earworm that features Whatever Lola Wants and Promiscuous by Nelly Furtado. Check that out. It’s actually a really good mix. In fact, most of DJ Earworm’s stuff is really good, with good production. He has a lot of his stuff available for free on his web site. Check out the United States of Pop if you do nothing else. I also blipped his Beyoncé/Tom Petty mashup. Some good stuff.

And, of course, if you don’t know Sarah Vaughan’s stuff, you’re missing out. One of the great jazz singers, her stuff is timeless. Amazon has a “best of” album of Vaughan’s stuff called Golden Hits – Sarah Vaughan. Recommended.

This made the Brea List in May, and I’ve been hooked on Metric since. I actually owned Combat Baby for a while, but I forgot about it (one of the pitfalls of my rather involved smart playlist system in iTunes). Anyway, Gimme Sympathy is a great song.

Update: I have no idea why the Amazon widget keeps screwing up the mix – this is the best I was able to get tonight, will look at it some more later.

May continues the spring feel. I almost forced myself to have a pair of songs per artist. I put in about 45 minutes when I realized that I was doing that.

I had this in the Feb/March Mix, from some free (or maybe not) compilation for this year’s SXSW. Good song, and the disco clothes really just work.

First one was about a tweet, my comment on a recent Krugman article:

Krugman’s column about California sounds about right to me. Our perception of taxes is warped by Republican spin: http://is.gd/DOOE

140 characters is a tough limit, and I think some things get misunderstood. Couple of clarifications are necessary. First, I’m not claiming there that Republicans are to blame alone for all of California’s problems. My point is that the Republicans have convinced a great many people that our taxes are high. They’re simply not, especially for the wealthy. They’re low by international standards, and they’re low by historical standards. That was the point of the second sentence.

The rest of my responses in that comment thread were to the idea that California’s budget is unsustainable due to a welfare state and regulations. Nothing I’ve read suggests that the budget is completely unsustainable. What I see, instead, is a property tax policy that has crippled that source of income (we can debate whether this is a good policy or not, but the revenue effect is pretty clear). This is combined with a income tax policy that makes it impossible to raise taxes as long as one party refuses to even consider that possibility.

I remain unconvinced that taxes are too high in CA, or that a $30-40 billion deficit is the fault of out of control spending. For example, here’s one of the editorial I’ve read that lay out some of the issues. There are better articles, but this is the only one I found that I read before.

Ok, that’s item one.

The second one isn’t actually from my tweets, but from a comment I received from a friend and my high school debate partner (yes, really!) about a religious freedom case out in San Diego.

Perhaps this is showing that I should use the blog more, where I certainly have more room to be more nuanced and clear. To that end, addressing the issue raised on Facebook, I really do want to mention this one thing:

While the ACLU isn’t perfect, I find them to be more consistent and more true to their mission than many other organizations. Their mission is to defend the Bill of Rights. They do this far more consistently than conservatives would like to admit. If there is some systemic bias you want to accuse them of, I’ll need to be convinced with more evidence than just an accusation.

And, on the note of bias, one other general point. I’m opinionated, and I’ve thought about a lot of issues I write about quite a bit. So, to the extent I have any ‘biases,’ I’m up front about them and generally quite conscious of them. I don’t need to be reminded of them, or that they exist. The thing is, I’m much more interested in getting policy right than in being right or being ideologically pure. So, while I’m certainly on the liberal side of the American political spectrum, I’m willing to consider ideas that challenge my starting positions on issues. Give me a chance.

Update: Some more information on the CA budget situation makes it seem like I may not have captured the full picture of CA’s spending situation. Kevin Drum addresses the editorial I linked to above and points out spending is up 23% since 1997. The editorial looked at the budget from 1999 on, but a couple of big spending increase years were 1997 and 1998. As Drum says, spending went up during the dot com boom and never cycled back down. There’s more to this, so it’s worth reading his post. It’s short, anyway.

I rarely do this, but I’m basically copying the post from Ritholtz’s blog:

“American Casino is a powerful and shocking look at the subprime lending scandal. If you want to understand how the US financial system failed and how mortgage companies ripped off the poor, see this film.”
–Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel prize-winning economist and writer

• On the shuttle from parking for my sister’s med school graduation. Say congrats to @swirlysu ! http://twitpic.com/5d692 #

• sigh #
• From Foreign Policy: Friday Photo: Sex theme park opens in China http://is.gd/ArVY #
• I’m now watching Star Trek I, II, & III while I work. Haven’t watched these in forever. #
• While I respect the folks protesting replies change, prepending ! or . in front of replies disrespects my prefs (i had that feature off) #
• Back to work with me. I promise my tweets will become interesting again (were they ever?) once I get past my current deadlines… #
• There’s no excuse for racist bullshit like this. Seriously, this is not OK, in 2004, today, or ever: http://bit.ly/K9ik2 (via @Anechoic) #
• hmmm, @astridiana says Franti will be at Mohegan Sun soon. Anyone interested? @hleahh isn’t. ♫ http://blip.fm/~6g2ij #

• Best iPhone App Ever. hehe http://is.gd/AbLl (link to Engadget) #
• Wolfram alpha looks nice. Really can see some great uses when doing serious blogging/writing (which I don’t do anymore… hmmm). #
• Wolfram Alpha screencast is worth watching to see an interesting search interface. http://is.gd/zwQC #
• Hey, I can go home now. At least I got to see the phillies take the lead before I left the office. #
• Is anyone going to do the Real Art Ways’ Real Public 2009 event/tour/thingy? Looks like a cool event/exhibition. #

• Magic look like they don’t care. Bulls ran to defend the open man shooting 3. Magic barely jog. Celtics too good shooting the ball for that #
• SAP, how I love to hate you. #

• Finally heading in to the bristol campus for the day. How hellish will parking be, I wonder? #
• Things I think about as I walk from car: how much has the parking situation @ ESPN hurt local lunch places. No one wants to move their car. #
• Tony Kornheiser, welcome to the modern world. From @PTIShow: TK just learned that this symbol is actually a smiley face. #
• something tells me @scarybunnies is going to be a bit upset with Lost tonight… #
• “So now you’re accusing the Pope of being anti-semantic?” – hehe. good one Jon Stewart. #
• is twitter down? no messages in an hour??? that’s Un-Possible! </ralph> #

• Yet another reason I wish I lived and worked in the Bay Area: http://nosql.net (via @evan) #
• Funniest thing I’ve read, tweeted by @juliablue , about her healthier eating: W00t! Fr00t! #
• Eliza Dushku has been posting pics and tweets while on a trip in uganda. Worth following. http://twitter.com/ElizaPatricia/status/1777736613 #
• Some background on eliza dushku’s (@elizapatricia) trip to uganda: http://bit.ly/dF5XB #
• blogs that moderate comments before posting them make conversations REALLY, REALLY hard. Not picking on any particular blog, see this a lot #

• Late lunch today. Trying the fat free balsamic. Tiny bit afraid. http://twitpic.com/4zp6v #
• programmer/coder peeps, stackoverflow.com is a good resource. iPhone, Rails communities are decent, with good answers. #
• I’m overcaffeinated again…. argh… cant. sit. still…. make it stop! #
• Awsome! RT @SaraBareilles: I’m going to be on my favorite tv show this week! It rhymes with mirty lock. #
• Another review i agree with RT @Atrios: if you shut your brain off and enjoy the ride, star trek is pretty good #
• Forgot to mention one other thing about Star Trek: the soundtrack was really good. Michael Giacchino rocks. http://is.gd/z3IA #
• Giacchino’s recent composer credits: Speed Racer, Lost, Fringe, Star Trek, Up, Ratatouille, & Incredibles. This may get me watching Fringe #

How many songs do you recognize? You can download the track for free from DJ Earworm’s site.

• Last mention tonight: Can a tv/movie series “sell out” – new Star Trek movie felt like a fav. band that got popular. feels ‘off’ to old fans #
• RT @doctorow Trek makes not a shred of sense but fun nevertheless. Time travel idiot plot + continuity ridiculousness + nostalgia + injokes. #
• Adventures in autocorrect, via @xenijardin : ‘Ahahhaah iPhone autocorrects “tribble” to “gribble.” what, pray fuck, is a gribble?’ #
• So the Roomba realy does get everywhere (great photograph of the roomba’s path around the room): http://is.gd/ysIx #
• Wasting lots of time reading stackoverflow – good resource – http://stackoverflow.com/ (via @mobileorchard & many google search results) #
• Finally watching the finale for Dollhouse. Nice seeing Alan Tudyk on my screen again, and in an interesting role. #
• Wow… 10,000+ on Flight Control. Holy crap. http://ow.ly/69CL (via @Firemint) #

Sometimes a simple whim can become art. Kudos to the young woman who did this. It’s a neat little video.

(via Commanda.net)

• Think I’m going to go see Star Trek at 4:30 at the Palace 17. #
• Just saw star trek. Feels like something familiar has been ripped away intentionally but without malice. Unsure how I feel about it. #
• Looks like express is trying something interesting with their brand http://twitter.com/JCingari/status/1749781173 #
• Wonder if fans of the Batman comics felt the same after seeing Batman Begins as I do about Star Trek right now. BB was a better movie, tho. #
• One of the best Bond opening credit songs ever. Love the dirty guitar. ♫ http://blip.fm/~5ymnh #
• wow, twitter spam on search for all the top trends — guess twitter has hit the mainstream. #

Just saw star trek. Feels like something familiar has been ripped away intentionally but without malice. Unsure how I feel about it.

In the hour since, I figured out a few things about what I liked and didn’t like about the movie. There’s one significant spoiler below, so if you haven’t see Star Trek and want to, you should probably stop reading now.

OK, you’re sure? Here come the spoilers:

I love Twitter because it forces me to be very concise and to the point. In my tweet above, I focus on the key problem for me. While I haven’t really watched every Star Trek episode from the original series, I’ve read them all (in a fantastic collection of book adaptations of each episode) plus read a LOT of the paperback and hardcover novels based on the original series characters. There’s a lot of history there for me.

Ultimately, this series reinvents that entire history. I’m actually not bothered by that. What bothers me is that the writers weren’t brave enough to simply say “we’re not going to follow the original history.” Instead, they made the break from the old history part of the plot of this movie. A little time travel and suddenly we’re on a different time line. Old history, poof, gone. Convenient.

And so, we’re introduced to Kirk, who’s a rebel without a cause who becomes captain before graduating from Starfleet. In other words, they didn’t just change the history of the series, but the very essence of the characters. Original Kirk is an overachiever who earns his captains stripes through a good career and his immense talent. New Kirk is just talent, given his command upon (before?) graduation from the academy in a ridiculously improbable set of circumstances. Part of what was admirable about Old Kirk to me was his pursuit of becoming captain, and his accomplishments getting there. It was his passion for his duty and his command.

New Kirk has none of that, and it’s kind of sad.

And I haven’t even said anything about New Spock, who has a girlfriend. No, really. Sigh.

So the movie was a bit frustrating for me. I found the use of time travel to make the break from the old history a crutch for the writers. The characters aren’t the original characters even though they might say the same catchphrases and make the same jokes.

Ultimately, this fork of the Star Trek reality may end up being a great bunch of stories. But for me, it’s easier to think of this as a reasonably good sci-fi movie and not as “Star Trek.” If that’s what the writers were going for, then fine. This isn’t Star Trek and, based on the weird logical flaws in this installment, won’t even be the same sort of sci-fi that the original series pioneered.

• The more I think about it, the more impressed I am with @twitterific ’s new UI. Some interesting concepts. #yam http://is.gd/xLA6 #
• don’t agree with Bill Simmons & others who think Manny tarnishes the Sox World Series wins. All of Baseball had a problem. Era tarnished. #
• about to finally go home. woo hoo! #
• Note to self: adding 9 uiwebviews to your app on top of the 9 that were already there is a REALLY bad idea. Time to redo this one. #
• I like The Unusuals. Good show. #
• The Unusuals is good, has two of my favorite actors, Harold Perrineau & Adam Goldberg. Jeremy Renner & Amber Tamblyn are great. Good casting #

• Paul Pierce suddenly looks overrated at this point in his career. That or he’s just having a bad few weeks… #
• Holy Crap! @sportscenter is reporting that Manny Ramirez is going to be suspended 50 games for failing a PED test… wow #
• if manny’s explanation is true, the MLB drug policy is stupid. Really stupid. If doctors can’t know what’s not allowed, wtf. #
• I love how all the writers “KNOW” manny is lying. I get healthy skepticism, but the MLB policy isn’t as clear as we’d like to believe… #
• so, let’s assume Manny was juicing. Does his agent have any grounds to sue Manny for screwing him out of his $ if they didn’t know? #
• Twitterrific 2 looks really nice. Love the secondary action bar at the bottom. http://bit.ly/qIMWW (via @Twitterrific) #
• Really cool 360 photography above NYC – beautiful and very neat. http://is.gd/szzG (via @alienradio) #
• costas is doing the games on the MLB network. didn’t know that. #
• Eliza Dushku in thigh highs on a motorcycle. I can think of worse reasons to watch Dollhouse. Thankfully it’s a pretty good show, too. #
• The new twitterific is hot. Still needs some performance work, though. Scrolling isn’t as smooth as tweetie. tweetie wins 4 now. #

• How’d I get on the 8am to midnight shift yesterday? Paying for it today. #
• ProPublica has put all of the financial disclosure forms for Obama’s nominees online: http://is.gd/xfkB #
• odd observation – considering ESPN’s employee demographics, on Twitter I follow nearly as many female ESPN employees as male employees. #
• There’s an unbelievable amount of hate and evil in the world: http://bit.ly/KZT0Z (via @kisbell) #

• drowning in email #
• tired. still at work. “and miles to go before I sleep, and miles to go before I sleep.” #
• Underrated song by MIA – love the slide sound at around 2 minutes in. ♫ http://blip.fm/~5o0o5 #
• was finally in the right mood so that Arcade Fire’s No Cars Go lit up the “oh, awesome” reaction in me. good song ♫ http://blip.fm/~5oasy #
• NHL commissioner Gary Bettman & NBA commissioner David Stern together on CNBC tomorrow, 10:20 a.m. ET. (via @darrenrovell1) #

• Twitter shuts down StatTweets: http://tr.im/ksMs (via @scottconnor) #
• RT: @juliablue: @sujal Couch-to-5K, brought to my attention by @emgian: http://tinyurl.com/4gtmz #
• Related to the graph I posted last night. Income growth since 1976 explained clearly: http://is.gd/wJWt #
• Let’s try again: Related to the graph I posted last night. Change in Income distribution since 1976, explained clearly: http://is.gd/wJWt #
• didn’t know Sen. Jeff Sessions’s was judicial nominee. video that @Maddow showed tonight was surprising. more here: http://is.gd/wKPn #

• Twitter. Shark. Jumped. http://bit.ly/2QZDU (or just look at this: http://yfrog.com/0n8ukp #
• back home – now to be productive finally. #
• the graph on this post captures something we don’t talk about enough. wage growth reflects policies, policies protect rich http://is.gd/wuD4 #

• moving to iPhone OS 3.0 beta 4 – now with beta iTunes, too! It’s getting more stable for sure. Excited. #
• This SC nomination is going to be an interesting test for Obama. Competence and qualifications over politics, please. http://is.gd/w8iw #

• nap over. what’s on TV worth watching right now? #
• The FDA is recalling Hydroxycut products, saying they have been linked to liver damage. (via @darrenrovell1) #

• wow, I may be able to go home at a reasonably normal hour… very cool. #
• Someone sent me a screenshot of their high score in FlightControl. He has a high score of 360 (!!!) holy crap. Embarrassed about my 104 #
• Bob Iger town hall at ESPN today. Sadly had to miss it. http://twitpic.com/4akzi #
• celtics fans, be honest. Do you really want this series to end at 6? Some really amazing, exciting games! #
• We want overtime! we want overtime! un-aligned fans demand overtime! #
• Do we hear a call for a double OT? #
• Tape on the CNN studio floor denotes “Glenn Beck Show” & “Normal Mark.” http://twitpic.com/4b70g (via @anamariecox) #
• un. freaking. believable. second OT! #
• triple ot? #
• Tony Reali gets the call of the night: oh NOAH HE DIDNT! (via @AroundTheHorn) #
• oh my, tough choice! let the Tivo record the Daily Show or Celtics/Bulls…. (who am I kidding) #
• Ha! @scottconnor, you’re right: RT: @sujal at this point, you could watch the Daily Show and come back to the game afterwards #
• alright, crashing for the night after I polish off this blog post. Night all. #